The year 2011 was very odd around the NBA. We had an exciting season and playoffs followed by a lockout, which led to some games being cancelled, a resolution, a frenetic free agency period and finally a kick off to a truncated season.
With just a few games of the season in the books, it is time to take a look ahead and make some predictions about what could happen around the NBA in 2012.
YES WAY, JOSE
We’ll start by looking at Canada’s team, the Toronto Raptors.
It seems easy to say this team will miss the playoffs. (It will be a tough task although this rendition of the Raptors looks a little grittier than in the past, so who knows.) It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world long term, as next year’s draft should be pretty strong depending on how many players enter it. So far this season the Raptors are looking much stronger on the defensive end of the ball and appear to have bought into new coach Dwane Casey’s system.
One thing I do believe is that point guard Jose Calderon is set for a strong season.
A year ago Calderon averaged just under 10 points per game to go with around nine assists.
It is early, but he has already raised both totals while also decreasing his turnovers as well.
On Sunday, he became the fifth-fastest active player to record his 3,000th assist. The four in front of him are Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks’ Jason Kidd, New Jersey Nets’ Deron Williams and Andre Miller of the Denver Nuggets. That’s some pretty lofty company. He also recorded his second double-double of the season on that day as well so it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could average a double-double for the whole season. A big task, but it would be fun to watch.
AND DOWN WE GO …
Unless the ping-pong balls bounce right for the Raptors, they will have very little chance of getting the top pick in the NBA draft. There are too many bottom-feeders across the league for the Raptors to feast on for them to pick that low.
Washington, Detroit, Charlotte, Minnesota, Phoenix and Utah have all looked pretty poor from the get-go and that list does not even include other teams that are expected to struggle like Sacramento, New Orleans and Cleveland.
Not including injuries (say, if Steve Nash were to be knocked from the Suns lineup for a significant period of time) I expect the Bobcats, Jazz and Kings to battle for the worst record with the Jazz edging the Bobcats for last-place honours — if only because they are based in the West, where it might be harder to get wins.
As for who gets selected with the first overall pick in the draft, at this point the list is down to around five players with forwards and centres dominating the top of the charts.
If it were the Jazz selecting first, I could easily see them drafting Harrison Barnes, the talented sophomore from North Carolina, or Andre Drummond, the giant freshman centre out of Connecticut. The other players expected to go in the top five are Anthony Davis (PF, Kentucky), Perry Jones (PF, Baylor) and Jared Sullinger (PF, Ohio State).
If the Jazz do not get the top pick, Davis would probably be the top choice for many teams.
FROM WORST TO FIRST
Let’s head upward and take a look at who will be fighting it out for the title when all is said and done.
Yes they are getting ready to put on a show on Broadway but until we see what Barron Davis brings to the table — probably a few games until he gets injured again — I will ticket them for an early exit come playoff time.
Boston is struggling early but they will eventually figure it out and make the playoffs, but will have a hard time doing any serious damage with the assembled roster.
Let’s face it, the East is a two-team race between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls.
While the Heat possess better top-end talent, the Bulls have the better team overall and the league’s reigning MVP Derrick Rose. The addition of Rip Hamilton is huge for the Bulls. He will spread the floor with his shooting range and also help inside the locker room as he has been there before.
On the other side of the continent, the picture isn’t nearly as crystal clear.
The Spurs and Lakers are getting old and appear to be on their way down, although both possess the pieces to remain in the hunt for another title. The Mavericks are another aging team that have made a few change that may make it tough to repeat.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, a team chalk full of young stars, appear ready to take the next step towards an NBA title.
Looking back at the last time we faced a shortened NBA season, the Knicks and the Spurs faced off for the title. An aging Knicks squad snuck into the finals and were summarily mowed down by a squad featuring a cast of Tim Duncan and a crew of veterans.
Point being, as much as everyone is worried about the injuries to veterans derailing a team, the experience of having been there before is more important.
That is why I think the Spurs or Lakers will come out of the West and if I had to choose it would be a final featuring the Spurs and Bulls.
THE SECOND SEASON
Unlike this off-season, next summer promises a bumper crop of free agents.
Among the players who could be potential unrestricted free agents are Tim Duncan, Gerald Wallace, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash, Andrew Bynum, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Deron Williams.
And there are a couple of solid restricted free agents to boot in Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook, although it’s unlikely those players will go anywhere.
Chris Paul has said he will stay with the Clippers for at least one more season and with many of the other players on the UFA list getting long in the tooth, for the purposes of this article, let’s focus on the latter two.
Williams and Howard have been tied together for a while now but it remains to be seen if they are a package deal or not.
Clearly the Knicks are now off the table as they are out of cap room but there will be a host of suitors looking to sign both next summer.
The Nets have been feverishly working to try and hang onto Williams by bringing in Howard, but the Magic have resisted so far.
Other potential destinations for Howard include the Rockets, Lakers, and Celtics as well as remaining in Orlando.
Other potential destinations for Williams include the Rockets, Mavericks and Rockets.
I’d say the Nets are the odds-on favourite with their impending move to Brooklyn and unlimited pockets, but this one might be too close to call. There will likely be more demand for Howard than Williams since there are fewer game-changers at his position than Williams.
CHASING THE PODIUM
At this point, it appears a virtual certainty that the Americans will repeat as gold medalists at London 2012 so the question becomes, who will finish second?
Unfortunately the Canadian men’s team is out of the picture, although with all of the talented young Canadians in U.S. colleges at the moment there remains hope for the future.
Only eight spots have been settled for the tournament thus far. Great Britain is expected to get the ninth spot automatically in March, which leaves three more teams to qualify.
Besides the USA, other talented basketball nations that have already punched their ticket to London include Argentina, Brazil, France and Spain.
The final qualifying tournament in Venezuela in June should be fascinating as some powerhouses from Europe and the Americas will go toe-to-toe for the final berths.
Anyways, at this point it would appear as though the Americans will again face Spain in the gold medal game with both teams fielding similar rosters from four years ago.
As for the Canadian ladies, they are not out of the picture yet.
They will be in the qualification tournament in Turkey in late June as well and with a veteran squad they have a solid shot of advancing to London.
