NBA free agency primer: Latest news, rumours, potential destinations

With Chris Paul joining the Rockets, and Jimmy Butler joining the Timberwolves, are the Raptors on the outside looking in? Tim and Sid discuss.

When the clock hits 12:01 a.m. ET Friday night and we move from June to July, NBA teams can officially begin to negotiate with free agents. It’s been a wild off-season already but don’t expect things to slow down now.

We’ve already listed the top players available on the market this summer, but with a ton of big names being recruited and notable address changes on the horizon, here’s a complete primer of what you need to know heading into NBA free agency.

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Which teams will be buyers in free agency?

The list of teams with significant cap space heading into free agency (read: enough to offer a max contract, or at least pay a player north of $20 million per season) is imperfect.

For most of the top players on the market, teams with ample cap room like the Sacramento Kings, Philadelphia 76ers, Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls, and Brooklyn Nets are worlds away from contending and therefore unappealing. It means you can expect those clubs to stand pat or occupy their cap by overpaying unproven young players like Otto Porter Jr., or role players like J.J. Redick.

The only real potential title contenders with money to spend in free agency are the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs will have to move some contracts and have already been exploring trades for LaMarcus Aldridge presumably in order to free up space to potentially go after a player like Kyle Lowry or even Blake Griffin. The Celtics, on the other hand, are good to go and will be pursuing the top players available, namely, in order, Gordon Hayward and Griffin, while continuing to make a push for Paul George on the trade front.

But the most interesting buyers lie with some of the league’s up-and-comers. The Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, and Minnesota Timberwolves will all be active in recruiting and can sell a top-flight free agent on being the ‘final’ or ‘missing’ piece to add to their young rosters. Though they may not carry the allure of the Celtics or Spurs, they are all legitimate players in free agency and don’t be shocked to see one or more of those teams land a big name.

The other team to keep an eye on? The Miami Heat, who saved over $25 million after mutually parting ways with Chris Bosh. Like Boston, the Heat will be making a hard push for Hayward and Griffin. Thanks the allure of South Beach and the impeccable culture Pat Riley has created, will have a decent chance at either.

The cream of the crop is staying put

Of all the free agents available this summer, none match either the production or star power of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. The two best players from the NBA’s best team headline an impressive class of 2017, and would instantly transform a club into ‘title contender’ status the moment they’re added to a roster — something no other free agent can do.

But neither Durant nor Curry are going anywhere.

Curry is expected to sign a max deal worth north of $200 million over five years, a well-deserved pay raise after finishing a monster 2016-17 season as the NBA’s 82nd highest-paid player thanks to a four-year $44-million deal signed back in 2013. Curry made $12 million last season, and will see that number more than double next season and beyond.

Under the rules of the new CBA, Curry will be leaving approximately $70 million on the table should he sign elsewhere, but money alone is hardly the only factor that should see the two-time champion return to the team that drafted him and preserve his status as the face of the NBA’s marquee franchise.

For his part, Durant is reportedly thinking team-first this summer. While he can make as much as $34 million next season, Durant will apparently accept less — a deal expected to pay him a mere pittance of $31 million — in order to help ensure the Warriors have the cap room to re-sign Curry and UFA Andre Igoudala, a key cog in their high-powered machine. To be safe, it’s been reported that Durant intends to wait until the end of the summer before signing an extension with Golden State.

The point guard market is more interesting than any other position

Curry aside, the biggest name and best point guard who was expected to enter free agency on July 1 was Chris Paul. But he’s off the market now after he opted in to the final year of his deal and orchestrated a trade to the Houston Rockets, where he’ll join James Harden to form what could be the NBA’s best backcourt.

That leaves none other than Kyle Lowry as the biggest fish in the sea. Expected to seek a max contract, Lowry’s list of suitors appear to be dwindling — the Rockets are off the market now that they have CP3, and the Philadelphia 76ers have filled their point guard hole via the draft, where they selected Markelle Fultz first overall.

Lowry has made it clear he wants to play for a contender, but of the remaining teams with the cap space to afford him, the Raptors may offer him the best opportunity to win. The Spurs are a dark-horse candidate but would need to make some moves in order to make it happen. And the Nuggets will make a strong push, too, though they’re still rebuilding around Nikola Jokic and their young core. Whether or not Lowry truly wants to play for a winner, or just wants a change of scenery, will be much clearer soon.

The first team he meets with will be the Raptors, who are making their pitch to the three-time all-star on Saturday.

Though Lowry may be the only elite point guard on the market, there is a glut of very-good-not-great players below him who are expected to be highly coveted.

George Hill, Jrue Holiday, and Jeff Teague won’t cost a team a max deal and can answer any point guard needs admirably. The Spurs, Jazz, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and even the Knicks are all looking to shore up the position with veteran talent and will be hoping that a bidding war doesn’t break out for those three.

All eyes are on…

Gordon Hayward. With Paul off the market he’s become the most prized catch in free agency. At 27, Hayward has improved every season and is fresh off his first all-star campaign. Whether as a solid number one option or an elite sidekick, he is a top target for many of the buyers listed.

Hayward’s best opportunity to win may be if he remains in Utah — a distinct possibility — barring they re-sign George Hill, too. Otherwise, he’s said to be “open-minded” during the free-agent process and will meet with the Heat on Saturday, followed by the Celtics Monday.

Big man market is thin overall but heavy at the top

Griffin and Paul Millsap.

Those are the best big men available in free agency this summer, and the only ones capable of transforming a team completely. Both have the ability to take a non-playoff team into the post-season, or be the difference-maker to help put a contending club over the top.

And there’s good reason to bet that at least one — and likely both — will be wearing a new uniform next season.

After the Paul trade, it’s hard to view the Clippers as a contender. Their roster currently features the offensively-flawed-but-defensively-brilliant DeAndre Jordan in the post, a handful of shoot-first combo guards … and Austin Rivers. Griffin’s return would go a long way to ensuring they’re still a playoff team, but he may view the Paul trade as an opportunity to look for a fresh start elsewhere having taken the Clippers as far as they’ll go (AKA, the second round of the playoffs).

Griffin is meeting with the Suns Saturday, where he can join Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe, and Josh Jackson to form an exciting — if unproven — nucleus, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have also reportedly expressed interest in pairing the former Oklahoma State star with league MVP Russell Westbrook.

Millsap has been linked to sign-and-trade rumours, as the Hawks look to get something of value in return as opposed to simply letting him walk. Houston, embedded in the NBA’s arms race, is reportedly eying Millsap as a backup plan if it can’t trade for George. But teams like the Suns, Nuggets, and Kings are all targeting him as well.

Both come with question marks. Griffin has been injury prone his entire career and is coming off a toe injury that may keep him out of action until December. Millsap is 32 and likely can’t be leaned on to be the go-to star for a team like he was in Utah and Atlanta, but both are all-star talents at the NBA’s thinnest position with versatile games that can impact their next team in a number of ways and will be high atop the wish list for most clubs with cap space looking to seriously upgrade their frontcourt.

After that, the talent drops off, but there are still impactful players on the market. Serge Ibaka and Nerlens Noel should both receive plenty of interest for very different reasons. Ibaka brings playoff experience and an ability to both shoot from deep and protect the rim at a high level. He is expected to meet with the Raptors, who want to re-sign him barring they also bring back Lowry.

Noel is another top-level rim protector and a highly effective pick-and-roll player who, unlike Ibaka, has youth on his side. At just 23, Noel excelled with the Dallas Mavericks after he was traded there from Philadelphia at the deadline and showed that he can be a potential centrepiece in a rebuilding effort. He’s the Mavs top target this off-season and it makes sense. Along with Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry, and rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr., Noel would form a promising core to build upon for the future. He is a restricted free agent, so Dallas can match any contract offered to him and will have the cap space to do so.

The non-all-star targets

They may not have quite the same name recognition or all-star resumes as many of the names listed above, but for teams who strike out on the best available players, or for those majority of teams who don’t have the cap space to spend like crazy there are plenty of above-average players expected to be available for under $20 million.

Dion Waiters had a breakout campaign with Miami, averaging 15.8 points per game last season. While he’s said he’ll take a discount to return to South Beach, he should be a top target for teams looking for scoring help on the perimeter. Igoudala has championship pedigree and a well-rounded, two-way game that would be welcome on almost any club. He’s expected to be recruited hard by the likes of the Suns, Jazz, Timberwolves, Clippers, 76ers, and just about any team looking for an impact veteran and will likely have to choose between a hefty payday or returning to the Warriors.

Joe Ingles is another name to watch. The sweet-shooting Australian didn’t make his NBA debut until three years ago at the age of 27, but had a killer season for Utah in 2016-17. Although best known for his offence, Ingles showed his defensive acumen in the playoffs versus the Clippers and could be a difference-maker at a fairly reasonable price.

If you thought the NBA’s silly season was crazy, just wait. Free agency is just about to tip off. Let the games begin.

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