The draft is always a crapshoot but the NBA draft lottery is always an even bigger crapshoot.
On Wednesday night, the worst team’s in the NBA will have their futures decided by a group of numbered ping pong balls. They will spit out a numbered combination which will decide who will pick No, 1 through No. 14 at this June’s NBA Draft.
Take the Toronto Raptors for example, the team has moved up in the draft twice, stood pat four times and dropped five times.
Below is a table with each lottery team’s odds of moving up or down in the draft.
| Team | Combos | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th |
| Bobcats | 250 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.178 | 0.357 | ||||||||||
| Wizards | 199 | 0.199 | 0.188 | 0.171 | 0.319 | 0.123 | |||||||||
| Cavaliers | 156 | 0.156 | 0.157 | 0.156 | 0.226 | 0.265 | 0.040 | ||||||||
| Hornets | 119 | 0.119 | 0.126 | 0.133 | 0.099 | 0.351 | 0.160 | 0.012 | |||||||
| Kings | 88 | 0.088 | 0.097 | 0.107 | 0.261 | 0.360 | 0.084 | 0.004 | |||||||
| Nets (1) | 63 | 0.063 | 0.071 | 0.081 | 0.439 | 0.305 | 0.040 | 0.001 | |||||||
| Warriors (2) | 43 | 0.043 | 0.049 | 0.058 | 0.599 | 0.232 | 0.018 | 0.000 | |||||||
| Raptors | 28 | 0.028 | 0.033 | 0.039 | 0.724 | 0.168 | 0.008 | 0.000 | |||||||
| Pistons | 17 | 0.017 | 0.020 | 0.024 | 0.813 | 0.122 | 0.004 | 0.000 | |||||||
| Hornets (via Min) | 11 | 0.011 | 0.013 | 0.016 | 0.870 | 0.089 | 0.002 | 0.000 | |||||||
| Blazers | 8 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.012 | 0.907 | 0.063 | 0.001 | 0.000 | |||||||
| Bucks | 7 | 0.007 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.935 | 0.039 | 0.000 | ||||||||
| Suns | 6 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.009 | 0.960 | 0.018 | |||||||||
| Rockets | 5 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.982 |
(1) — If the Nets pick lands outside of the top three the Trail Blazers will gets the pick.
(2) — If the Warriors pick falls below No. 7 it will become Jazz’s pick.
In 2004, the Raptors fell to No. 8 and drafted Rafael Araujo.
Toronto has never finished with the No. 8 pick pre-draft lottery but the teams that have, have finished with some solid players.
A couple of teams moved up, (including Cleveland to No. 1 last year) and a couple of teams have fallen but almost every player drafted has had a respectable NBA career.
In 1994, the NBA began to use the current model for the draft lottery. What follows is a list of the teams that finished the regular season with the No. 8 pick (pre-lottery), where they finished after the lottery and who they ended up selecting:
1994 Sacramento Kings
Drafted Briant Grant (Xavier) with the eighth overall pick. The power forward had a 12-year NBA career, averaging 10.5 PPG and 7.5 assists.
1995 Miami Heat
Drafted Kurt Thomas (TCU) with the 10th pick in the draft. The power forward is still going strong at the age of 38. Thomas spent last season with the Portland Trail Blazers where he appeared in 56 games with five starts.
1996 New Jersey Nets
Drafted Kerry Kittles (Villanova) with the eighth overall pick. The shooting guard played seven seasons in New Jersey before one final season with the Clippers. Kittles averaged 14.1 PPG and 2.6 APG over his career.
1997 Golden State
Drafted Adonal Foyle (Colgate) with the eighth overall pick. The centre spent 10 seasons with the Warriors before finishing off his career in Orlando and Memphis. He had career averages of 4.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 1.6 BPG.
1998 Philadelphia 76ers
Drafted Larry Hughes (UNLV) with the eighth overall pick who appeared in nine games last season with the Orlando Magic but did not have much of an impact. The shooting guard led the NBA in steals in 2005 and averaged more than 22 PPG twice in his career.
1999 Phoenix Suns
Drafted Shawn Marion (UNLV) with the ninth overall pick who became a four time NBA all-star and won a title with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. The power forward spent most of his career with Phoenix and Dallas and holds career averages of 16.4 PPG and 9.2 RPG.
2000 Cleveland Cavaliers
Drafted Jamal Crawford (Michigan) with the eighth overall pick but shipped him to Chicago for Chris Mihm. Mihm flamed out but Crawford is still playing. The shooting guard was named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year in 2010. He spent last season with Portland and holds career averages of 15.3 PPG and 3.9 APG.
2001 L.A. Clippers
Drafted Tyson Chandler (Highschooler) with the No. 2 overall pick but immediately traded him to the Chicago Bulls for Elton Brand. It took a while for Chandler to develop but the centre eventually became a key piece in the Mavericks 2011 NBA title and was named NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2012. Brand spent last season in Phialdelphia.
2002 L.A. Clippers (from Atlanta)
Drafted Chris Wilcox (Maryland) with the eighth overall pcik who has been a solid NBA journeyman throughout his career. The power forward is currently with the Boston Celtics but had his season cut short by injuries. Has posted career averages of 8.6 PPG and 5.1 RPG.
2003 Milwaukee Bucks (from Atlanta)
Bucks selected T. J. Ford (Texas) with the eighth overall pick. The point guard battled injuries throughout his career and retired this winter because of a neck injury. Still managed to post career stats of 11.2 PPG and 5.8 APG.
2004 Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers drafted Andre Iguodala (Arizona) with the ninth overall pick and the ultra-athletic small forward became an NBA all-star in 2012. The versatile swingman’s career averages are 15.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 4.9 APG.
2005 New York Knicks
The Knicks selected Channing Frye (Arizona) with the eighth overall pick who seems to have finally found the perfect home in Phoenix, the centre’s third NBA team. The long-range bomber’s career averages are 9.7 PPG and 5.2 RPG
2006 Houston Rockets
The Rockets selected Rudy Gay (Connecticut) with the eighth overall pick and packaged him with Stromile Swift in a trade for another small forward, Shane Battier. The trade was a fleecing as Gay’s career averages are 17.9 PPG and 5.7 RPG.
2007 Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats drafted Brandon Wright (North Carolina) with the eight overall pick and he was dealt to Golden State for Jason Richardson and the draft rights to Jermareo Davidson. Now on his third NBA team, fourth if you count Charlotte, the centre appeared in 49 games with Dallas last season but has not set the world on fire.
2008 Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats selected D. J. Augustin (Texas) with the eighth overall pick. Still with the team, the speedy point guard dished out a career-high 6.4 APG last season.
2009 New York Knicks
The Knicks drafted Jordan Hill (Arizona) with the eighth overall pick. Now with his third NBA team, the power forward averaged 4.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG although those numbers increased during the playoffs.
2010 Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers selected Al-Farouq Aminu (Wake Forest) with the eighth overall pick. The small forward was dealt to New Orleans as part of the package for Chris Paul.
2011 Cleveland Cavaliers (from L. A. Clippers)
The Cavaliers selected Kyrie Irving (Duke) with the first overall pick. The young point guard was recently named the NBA Rookie of the Year.
2012 Toronto Raptors
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