NBA Mock Draft: How far will Embiid fall?

With Embiid’s injury, the debate over No. 1 should no longer be a question. The Thornhill, Ont., native was the best prospect coming into the 2013-14 college season and nothing has changed. Wiggins has everything needed in a potential superstar wing: Otherworldly athleticism, size, a smooth jumper and natural defensive instincts to go along with incredible lateral quickness. This is a no-brainer, Wiggins will join fellow countrymen Tristan Thompson and Anthony Bennett on the Cleveland Canadians.

The Bucks have said Embiid is off their list, but that may be a smokescreen. If it isn’t, they’ll be making the right decision because Jabari Parker will be waiting at No. 2 ready to transform their franchise.

A replica of Carmelo Anthony, Parker will turn an ugly Milwaukee team into an instant League Pass favourite thanks to the myriad ways he can score. Just like Anthony, Parker can stroke it from deep, put it on the floor and get to the hole, pull-up from mid-range and post-up—meaning he could be even be used as a stretch four. His defence is suspect, but you can’t go wrong with a guy who has the potential to give you 30 points a night.

Embiid would make a lot of sense here, but he’s ruled out by the fact that it’s the 76ers selecting third. Philadelphia has two top-10 picks and they’ll be looking to accelerate their rebuild with both. Taking an injured Embiid—who will likely miss training camp and even some of the 2014-15 season—doesn’t work in that scenario, not to mention that the Sixers still don’t know what they have in 2013 No. 6 Nerlens Noel.

The only bright spot in a very forgettable Hoosiers season, Noah Vonleh looks like an ideal fit with 76ers. Vonleh is a six-foot-nine power forward with a seven-foot-three wingspan who’s capable of running the floor and has shown flashes of outside touch. The Sixers want to run. Adding a big man capable of getting out with the wings on the break just makes sense.

The most intriguing prospect in the draft, Dante Exum is touted as a potential top-10 NBA point guard, despite no one having really seen him play outside his native Australia. However, at six-foot-six and with combine measurements that stack up alongside the likes of Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose, it’s hard not to get excited. Given the fact that Victor Oladipo struggled in his transition to the point, the Magic should definitely take the best point guard on the board.

There are certainly players on the board that could immediately help a Jazz team that seems stuck in the doldrums, but adding another young piece for immediate help won’t amount to much in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Should he fall this far, then, Embiid makes perfect sense for Utah. The Jazz won’t be competitive this coming season, meaning there won’t be any pressure to rush Embiid’s recovery. It’s true they have a pair of talented young bigs in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, but Embiid should still be the pick—and not only because he’ll be the most talented player on the board. Favors has been the subject of trade rumours over the last little while, suggesting he may be on the outs with the Jazz.

Smart was projected to go No. 1 in 2013 before he decided to return to Oklahoma State and it looks like he’ll be bounced from the top-five as a result, which is very good news for the Celtics. Smart is a natural scoring combo guard with a bulldog mentality that should mesh well with Rajon Rondo’s equally fierce competitive spirit. Although he played point guard in college, Smart is more likely to see action at the two. With Avery Bradley hitting restricted free agency, taking Smart to replace him as Boston’s new starting shooting guard wouldn’t be a bad look for the C’s.

Pau Gasol’s contract with the Lakers is up and, while his future is unknown, it’s unlikely we’ll see him in the Purple and Gold again. Ryan Kelly is a pretty nice player, but probably shouldn’t be starting, so the Lakers will take Julius Randle at No. 7.

Coming into this season Randle was supposed to fight Wiggins and Parker for No. 1, but he fell off a bit as some of his wrinkles were exposed. However, he’s still an elite prospect with bull-like strength, a great work ethic and a level of consistency that no other prospect in this class showed this past season. He’ll be a rock solid pick for L.A.

An incredibly athletic prospect to add to an incredibly athletic team, Aaron Gordon is a power forward who can jump out of the gym and will throw down some nasty dunks on the opposition. Right now the Kings’ starting power forward is Derrick Williams—a highly-touted prospect once upon a time who’s never seemed to pan out—meaning Gordon will likely be able to step in and start with a very young group, led by DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. This may not be the best fit for Gordon, and the Kings probably don’t need another athlete, but it would certainly be fun to watch and a pick like this would also be very Sacramento-like.

Prospects are normally rated on whether they’ll be stars or busts. Gary Harris won’t be a star, but he won’t be a bust either. Instead, he’ll be a reliable shooting guard with a long NBA career ahead of him, able to transition nicely to the Hornets—likely as the sixth man, backing up Gerald Henderson.

Harris can stroke it from mid-range and deep, has a crafty handle, can finish in traffic, is capable of defending both guard spots and is an excellent passer. In short, apart from his size, he has everything you want in an NBA shooting guard.

The Sixers were the worst three-point shooting team in the league this season, converting just 31.2 percent of their attempts. Mississauga, Ontario’s Nik Stauskas shot 44.2 percent from deep last season and is the best pure shooter in the draft by a wide margin. Philly is a fast team that wants to push the tempo, but without any outside threat their offensive options are limited to drives. Stauskas could correct that from day one, and with his size and surprising athletic ability he could develop into a very nice three-and-D player.

Dario Saric is a classic Euro big man with the ball-handling skills and court vision to play the three and become a devastating point forward. His game would mesh well with the high-octane, pass-first brand of basketball the Nuggets play and because he can play small forward, he could be interesting as a replacement for Danilo Gallinari, whose durability is in question after two ACL surgeries on his left knee over the past two seasons. Saric’s foot speed and lateral mobility are points of concern, but six-foot-10 players that can shoot, pass and dribble the way he can don’t come around too often.

Last college season’s leading scorer and National Player of the Year, Doug McDermott feels like a true boom or bust prospect. On one hand, he’s an incredible scorer with shooting touch and range to die for, and a strong body capable of banging inside for rebounds. On the other, he may be too much of a tweener—not quick enough to keep up with threes and not big enough to hang with fours.

Still, it’s a worthy risk for the Magic. Beyond Arron Afflalo—whose contract expires at the end of next season—Orlando doesn’t have any reliable outside shooters, let alone ones that can also crash the glass.

Like a lot of teams in the league today, the Timberwolves need to improve their outside shooting. Rodney Hood can do just that. Shooting 42 percent from deep and 46.4 percent from the field last season for the Blue Devils, Hood is a classic swingman who can stretch the floor and force defenders to stick with him wherever he’s roaming. This selection likely won’t keep Kevin Love in Minnesota, but a player who can hit open threes on the second pass from the doubles Love draws in the post can’t hurt the Wolves’ attempts to convince him to stay.

With Channing Frye opting out of his current deal with the Suns and possibly demanding more than they’re willing to pay, Phoenix will be in the market for a stretch four, and Adreian Payne could fit that bill perfectly.

Payne is a great pick-and-pop player with range from deep (he shot 42.3 percent from three in his senior season) to go along with strength on the block and some decent post moves. With the way Phoenix plays, Payne could even see some time at small forward, where he could excel as he’s a lot quicker than he can seem at first.

Nicknamed “Slow-mo” because of his lack of quickness and athleticism, Kyle Anderson more than makes up for it with his size, ball-handling, basketball IQ and incredible passing ability. The Hawks are a team full of three-point gunners; imagine what all that firepower could do with what is essentially a six-foot-nine point guard sending passes their way.

The Bulls need to find ways to score the ball (only managing 99.7 points per 100 possessions this past season) and, as nice as it may be to fantasize, they can’t rely solely on the possibility of Carmelo Anthony signing with them. T.J. Warren is probably the second-best natural scorer (behind Parker) in this draft. Warren is deadly from mid-range and can create his own shot off the dribble. He’ll need to improve his three-point stroke, but given how deadly he is spotting up from about 18-feet, that should easily be within the realm of the possible.

James Young’s stock has shot up after the combine recast him as a six-foot-seven wing prospect with a seven-foot wingspan—measurements that make him absolutely huge for his position. Young doesn’t have a specialty, but he’s a good all-arounder and has supreme confidence in his abilities, which seemed to inspire his Kentucky teammates on their way to the national championship game. The Celtics have a need at the wing with no good options backing up Jeff Green at the moment. Young could come in and instantly become their sixth man.

Jusuf Nurkic is a six-foot-11 Bosnian centre with a lot of upside thanks to his mobility, footwork and natural balance. He’s also probably not NBA ready quite yet. That’s okay for the Suns, though, as their need to improve in the front court will likely be addressed with their first pick, giving them leeway to take a chance with their second. Should Phoenix take Nurkic, it’s likely he’ll be stashed away in Europe for another full season to develop his game while the Suns take a longer look at Alex Len.

A rough-and-tumble defence-first point guard with good size and athleticism for his position, Elfrid Payton certainly fits the mold of a Tom Thibodeau player. Offensively, he still has a ways to go, but his quickness, ball handling and passing ability have earned him comparisons to Rajon Rondo.

While Payton won’t replace Derrick Rose on the Bulls’ depth chart, his defensive mindset could still give him a lot of minutes as Rose’s primary backup. Pray for an opposing backcourt trying to score against the combined efforts of Payton and Jimmy Butler.

The best story of the draft: The Toronto Raptors will finally draft a Canadian player in Tyler Ennis, transforming the soft-spoken kid from Brampton, Ont., into a national celebrity.

This move isn’t just for sentimental (and economic) reasons, however, as Ennis is the second-best pure point guard in the draft, with great court vision, a wicked handle, a decent jumper and level-headedness that suggests he could become a fine leader one day. Looking at the Raptors’ depth chart, the point is pretty crowded—particularly because the team’s biggest needs this off-season will include locking up Kyle Lowry and Greivis Vasquez—but GM Masai Ujiri has said he’ll take the best available player, regardless of position, and Ennis will be the most talented player left on the board.

Russell Westbrook is a very fun player to watch. But how much fun would it be to have two Westbrooks on the same team? Well, if the Thunder draft their mercurial guard’s fellow UCLA alum, we could very well find out the answer.

Zach LaVine absolutely floored scouts in the combine with his athleticism, speed and everything else you can’t teach a player. He had a pedestrian college career (averaging just 9.4 points per game) but is still a surefire first-round talent because of his physical gifts. This was the story with Westbrook and he’s blossomed into a superstar, so the sky’s the limit for a player like LaVine. As for how he fits, the Thunder need wing help and he could slot in nicely for them there, while also playing some point at times.

Originally a standout at North Carolina, P.J. Hairston was booted from the Tar Heels for a series of off-court issues that—after a very strong year in the D-League—appear to have been corrected. Hairston averaged 21.8 points per game on 45.3 percent shooting this season with the Texas Legends, revitalizing his career and giving himself this second chance at the NBA.

While he isn’t a great a defender, Hairston can score the basketball. Memphis has a surplus of perimeter defenders with the likes of Courtney Lee and Tony Allen, but really struggle to get any kind of offensive production from the wings. This is where Hairston fits in, as he can create shots for himself and knock down open triples, two areas the Grizzlies really struggled.

At the moment, the Jazz are starting Gordon Hayward at the two, an issue as Hayward’s lack of lateral quickness saw him get beaten a lot on the defensive end this season. A switch to small forward, then, would be an enticing one for him. Drafting Jordan Adams could make that transition possible for the Jazz.

Adams has a knack for scoring the ball. Whether via cuts, mid-range pull-ups or drives to the hoop, Adams consistently found ways to fill it up in his two years at UCLA and that same scoring knack could help take pressure off Hayward and Trey Burke.

Defence is at the heart of the Hornets’ burgeoning identity and ACC blocks leader K.J. McDaniels would be a perfect fit. McDaniels is a ridiculous athlete with phenomenal leaping ability, great straight-line speed and even better lateral quickness. All of this coalesces in a potential lockdown perimeter defender, capable of guarding both wing positions and point guards. He still has a ways to go offensively, but the league always has a need for defensive specialists and McDaniels could be a special one.

Versatility seems to be the attribute most prized by the Rockets and Cleanthony Early just may be the most versatile player on the board. The Wichita State standout is a natural combo forward with range from deep, a nose for the ball on the glass and explosive quickness that lets him get by bigger defenders with ease.

The Rockets love what they have in Chandler Parsons and, although he doesn’t have the same shooting stroke as Parsons, Early is a similar kind of player and another effective weapon to throw on the perimeter around Dwight Howard.

Shabazz Napier led UConn to a national championship and basically played his way into the green room during that run. Scouts weren’t the only ones impressed, though. LeBron James liked what he saw as well.

Miami’s point guard play was poor (to say the least) during the Finals. Drafting Napier seems like a good idea to both upgrade that area and also maybe appease the King a little in an effort to keep him in South Beach.

With the likes of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe, the Suns want to get out and run but are a little limited in the way of finishing options. Jerami Grant could be the solution for them at No. 27 as the Syracuse product runs the floor extremely well, is very athletic and can end plays with authority.

Clint Capela will be an interesting project for whatever team takes him. He’s a six-foot-11 athletic beast from Switzerland who projects to be something of a DeAndre Jordan-type player. At the moment, he simply isn’t strong enough for the NBA game—and his basketball skills aren’t there yet, either—but give him a year or two to develop in Europe and the NBA could have a certified monster on its hands.

Caron Butler is coming to the end of his career and Glenn Robinson III may be the appropriate replacement. The son of 1994 first-overall pick Glenn “Big Dog” Robinson, Robinson III is a whole lot more athletic than his father, but not quite the shooter from deep. Regardless, with No. 29 the Thunder could certainly do worse than the Michigan star in their search for a cheap backup three.

A six-foot-five point guard, Vasilije Micic is already an elite passer but needs to work on the rest of his game before he’s truly NBA ready. At the moment, the Spurs’ depth chart is packed at the point but with Tony Parker now 32 years old with a lot of mileage on his body, expect to see Micic getting the NBA nod when Parker starts to break down. For now, however, the Serbian international will likely spend his days working on his game in Europe.