Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry logged 41 minutes in an eight-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night. That’s a heavy workload for any player, and it’s compounded by the fact that the game came on the second leg of a back-to-back. Toronto suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. Lowry played 35 minutes in that defeat.
Lowry is currently leading the NBA in minutes per game, averaging 38.7. He’s 30.
The only other players currently averaging 38 minutes or more are Harrison Barnes (38.1) and Anthony Davis (38). They’re 24 and 23, respectively.
In the shot-clock era (1979–80 to now), 37 players have averaged more than 38 minutes per game at age 30 or older across a full season (min. 10 games played). That group played an average of 72.3 games. But they also topped 80 games played 44.9 percent of the time.
Being 30, then, doesn’t mean a player can’t handle a large nightly workload. But there’s a bit of a belief that while Lowry may be able to play nearly 40 a night, his effectiveness wains late in the season and into the playoffs as those minutes add up.
That reputation formed in 2014–15, when the Raptors point played at edge-of-the-MVP-conversation level through the early months of the season before slipping in January. His field-goal percentage fell from 46.3 percent in December to 37.4 percent in the first month of 2015. His scoring numbers dipped along with it and he missed 11 games across March and April. The sense that something must have gone wrong was cemented when Toronto dropped its first-round playoff matchup against the Washington Wizards in four straight.
But does one season in which heavy minutes may have contributed to injury and exhaustion down the stretch mean that Lowry can’t handle heavy minutes? A look at the numbers says no.
| Season | Total Min. Oct.-Dec. | Min/G Oct.-Dec. | FG% Jan.-Apr. | 3P% Jan.-Apr. | Pts/G Jan.-Apr. | Ast/G Jan.-Apr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 545 | 30.3 | 39.1 | 36.7 | 10.1 | 2.3 |
| 2013-14 | 1063 | 36.7 | 42.3 | 46.8 | 19.2 | 7.5 |
| 2014-15 | 1104 | 34.5 | 37.5 | 33 | 15.3 | 6 |
| 2015-16 | 1178 | 35.7 | 44 | 39 | 21.7 | 6.6 |
In that 2014–15 season mentioned above, he played 1,104 minutes from October to December—which adds up to his second-heaviest start to a season since joining the Raptors. Broken down by game, it’s third.
But in 2013–14, Lowry logged 36.7 minutes a night through the first three months of the season—his highest per game average as a Raptor for that stretch. From January to April, he upped his points and assists per game (19.2 and 7.5, up from 15.7 and 7.2), and shot 42.3 percent from the field and 46.8 percent from three (up from 42.2 and 36.3).
Last season, he totaled 1,178 minutes through December—his most as a Raptor—and again upped his numbers from January to the end of the regular season. He averaged 21.7 points and 6.6 assists, hit 44 percent of his shots and 39 percent from behind the arc, and played 38 minutes a night. He also played a key role in the Raptors’ run to the Eastern Conference Finals.
In short, there’s twice as much evidence that Lowry plays better in the second half after he’s been handed heavy minutes in a season’s opening months.
A brief break for common sense: Regardless of his ability to handle the load, the Raptors coaching staff likely doesn’t want to be running their most important player nearly 40 minutes a night.
But they also seem to value early-season wins, and with Lowry on the bench, this team doesn’t exactly play like a winner.
Toronto’s offence is currently ranked third league-wide (behind the Warriors and Clippers), scoring 109.8 points per 100 possessions. Their defence is 22nd and allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions—but that exceptional scoring ability still has them sitting eighth in net rating at +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
With Lowry on the court all those numbers improve. The team scores 111.4 points per 100 possessions and allows 104.1, for a net rating (7.3 for those too lazy to do the math) that would rank fourth behind the Clippers, Warriors and Hawks.
With Lowry off the court you can probably guess what happens: 103.3 points scored, 113.5 points allowed and a net rating of -10.2—almost half a point worse than the rock-bottom Philadelphia 76ers, who are currently sporting a -9.8.
Lowry’s presence on the court is good for a 17.5-point swing per 100 possessions.
Is that a good enough reason to see him at the top of the minutes-per-game leaderboard? You tell us.
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