With the First Four out of the way, the actual NCAA Tournament begins Thursday at about noon ET.
As has become a pseudo-tradition here, we caught up with ESPN college basketball broadcaster – and one of Sportsnet’s Toronto Blue Jays play-by-play broadcasters – Dan Shulman to ask him who he likes and potential upsets in the four regions, Canadians and NBA prospects to watch throughout the tournament. Shulman also revealed his bracket to us, including his Final Four and national champion.
(Note: The interview has been edited for clarity.)
Sportsnet: Do you think the selection committee got the No. 1 seeds right?
Dan Shulman: I think you could’ve made a case for Michigan State getting a one being the Big Ten regular-season and conference-tournament champion, but I don’t have any quarrel with three ACC teams, and I think Duke, Virginia and North Carolina proved themselves all season long, and Gonzaga had a great year, so I don’t think there’s really any issue with the No. 1 seeds.
The one thing that jumped out at me from the ones and twos, is I was very surprised Michigan State wound up in Duke’s bracket. I think that was a very tough draw for Michigan State and not necessarily a fair draw for Michigan State given the way their season went.
I think they got the ones and twos right, but the only thing I would do is switch around who’s playing who in those matchups.
SN: The flip side to that is the potential that Duke, the No. 1 overall seed, could be rewarded with a team as tough as Michigan State in the regional final, though.
DS: Yeah, it’s not really fair to either one of them. Michigan State beat Michigan three times this year. Twice in the regular season and once in the tournament, and according to the tournament committee, they had Michigan State seeded or ranked sixth and they had Michigan ranked eighth.
So, sixth-ranked Michigan State is playing No. 1 Duke in the committee’s mind, and eighth-ranked Michigan is playing fourth-ranked Gonzaga. Not that Gonzaga’s easy, they’re great, but if I’m Michigan State, while you want to get past this and try to focus on the games, I’m wondering why it’s working out that way.
What the committee has said is they do it according to distance, and because Michigan State is higher ranked than Michigan, they want to let them play closer to home so more of their fans can travel to the games. I get that, but I bet you if you ask Tom Izzo, he would rather have a preferable matchup as opposed to being closer to home.
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SN: Since we’re in the East region right now, does anything jump out to you in terms of upset potential?
DS: I’m interested in Belmont. A mid-major team that got an at-large bid, which doesn’t happen all that often but they had a really good season and I think they’ve got a chance to be dangerous.
Other than that, LSU is an interesting team for a variety of reasons. They’re very long, athletic, aggressive, and are a good rebounding team. On a good day they can beat anybody, but they’ve also been through a lot of turmoil right now with their coach being suspended and they’ve become part of the recruiting scandal and investigation and they didn’t play particularly well in the SEC tournament.
So it’ll be interesting to see if they can rally and if they can just shut out all of the outside noise and play their best basketball, because on any given day they’re a terrific team that can beat anybody.
SN: Switching over to the South region now, does Virginia have a clear path to reach the Final Four from there?
DS: If I were to pick I would have Tennessee beating Virginia in a regional final, but I think you can make a case that Virginia has one of the easier paths. They’re also going to be — not that they wouldn’t anyway — but they’re also going to be highly, highly motivated because of what happened last year in becoming the first No. 1 to lose to a 16.
People forget they didn’t have De’Andre Hunter last year. He was hurt and didn’t play in the ACC nor NCAA Tournament and he’s a great player — one of the 10 or 15 best players in the country, possibly.
So they’ve got him back, they’ve got experienced, talented guards in Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome and they’re really, really good. That being said, they don’t blow people out, generally, games are close, and if they run into a team that’s long and athletic, can disrupt them defensively, they could be vulnerable.
But without question they deserve the seed they have, they had the kind of regular season to be a No. 1 seed and they’re going to do a lot better than last year.
However, it’s not going to be easy. We always get upsets, teams are always vulnerable, and there’s just something about Virginia that makes you think they’re going to be a little bit vulnerable.
SN: What upset potential do you see in the South?
DS: I like Oregon as a 12. Oregon came into the year almost as a co-favourite in the Pac-12 with Washington and then just had a dismal season, but then got hot at the right time and won the Pac-12 Tournament to steal a bid — if Oregon doesn’t win the Pac-12 Tournament, UNC Greensboro is in as an at-large.
Wisconsin is a good team, not a great team, and Oregon’s got a lot of talent, some older players and even though it says five-12, I think it’s a pretty close game, and I think Oregon’s got a real chance to beat Wisconsin.
Then you look at Kansas State and they’ve got an injured player in Dean Wade, one of their best players. So if you’re an Oregon fan you’re thrilled you’re even in the tournament, but I think you look at your draw and you’ve got to be pretty happy with the way things have shapen up.
SN: Turning attention to the Midwest region, you believe this is actually the toughest of the four. Why is that?
DS: First of all, I think North Carolina is great, they had a great year. Then Kentucky is so much better than they were early in the year. I think that’s the toughest and most exciting potential one-two matchup.
Not a lot of people know that much about Houston, but they only lost two games in a decent conference, the American Athletic Conference, and they can shoot the ball, they can really defend, and they play with a lot of toughness.
It’s not a great Kansas team, so I’m not even counting Kansas, really, as why I think this bracket is so tough, but Iowa State at No. 6 I love because they can really score and they’re healthier now — they weren’t healthy at the beginning of the season — so I think Iowa State at No. 6 is a really good team.
Then there’s the seven-10 matchup between Wofford and Seton Hall, I think both of them are really good teams. Utah State as a No. 8 is really dangerous, as well. I just think almost from top to bottom in this bracket you’ve got really tough, dangerous teams who can do some damage.
SN: What about upsets in the Midwest region?
DS: One team I look at is New Mexico State. They’re deep and they pass the ball extremely well, and with Auburn at the five seed, while Auburn’s good is really, really good, they can also play poorly, take bad shots, play a little chaotically.
So I think, just like Oregon at the 12 in the South region, I think if I’m New Mexico State right now — and keep in mind that Auburn’s good and Kansas is good — but I think there’s a chance for New Mexico State to pull off an upset.
SN: Now the West region. Who do you think makes it out?
DS: I’m going to take Gonzaga. I was courtside when they beat Duke back in November in Maui, which is the only loss Duke’s suffered all year when they were at full strength. I love Gonzaga’s talent, I love their size.
The last few years, other than the year they made it to the national championship game, it’s felt like maybe they didn’t get as far as they should’ve gone, but I think Gonzaga’s a real threat to win the national championship.
I know they got beat by St. Mary’s in their conference tournament and that’s got to be a little bit of a concern for Mark Few, but they just blew people away in their conference all year and I think they’re as good as any team in the country.
Michigan at times this year, more early than late, has played as well as anybody in the country as well and I think John Beilein has gotten more out of his players than any coach in America. Zavier Simpson, their point guard, is such a great leader, and Jon Teske, their big guy, has gotten better and better. It’s a tight rotation, only seven of them, but when they’re making shots they can play with anybody in the country.
So I like Gonzaga to meet with Michigan in the regional final, which should be a heck of a game.
SN: Is Ja Morant’s Murray State the upset to pick in the West?
DS: The 12-five game there is going to be a fascinating one to watch. Ja Morant is going to be, I think, probably the third pick in the NBA draft and people have started comparing him to Russell Westbrook a little bit. The vertical leap this guy has and the way he dunks over people is crazy for a six-three guy and then 10 assists per game this year. Ja Morant is a special, special player, there’s no doubt about it.
Marquette is a good team, though, and this will be a tough game because Marquette’s best player is a guy named Markus Howard who can drop 40 on you. He’s a five-11 guard who’s got a step-back jumper like James Harden has — he uses it all the time — but he’s been battling a bit of a sore wrist. So if he’s not healthy then that’s a major problem for Marquette.
But if Markus Howard is healthy, I give the nod to Marquette. As exciting as Ja Morant is and as hectic as 12-five matchups always are, if Markus Howard is healthy he’s such a phenomenal scorer, there’s just so little you can do to slow him down.
The other team that interests me, and it wouldn’t be a first-round upset, but I want to see how good Buffalo is on this stage. They beat Arizona in the tournament last year, they’re better this year, they went to Syracuse during the regular season and won this year and assuming they get by their first-round game, I want to see what they do. Can they beat Texas Tech? Then, if they get by that, can they beat Michigan?
This is a tremendously confident team that’s played a hard schedule and they’ve got a lot of confidence from last year, and Buffalo’s just one of those teams that I think a lot of people are picking to get to the Elite Eight. I don’t know if that’s possible, but I really want to see it.
SN: Who are some of the Canadians fans should be looking for in the tournament?
DS: You’ve got to start with R.J. Barrett, obviously. I think a lot of people have seen R.J. a lot by now. Leading scorer in the ACC, first-team all-conference and he’s great.
Because Zion Williamson’s on the same team as him he hasn’t gotten as much attention, but on any given day R.J. Barrett can drop 30 on you. Additionally, he rebounds, he passes and he’s had a really good year. And when you’re a featured player on the No. 1 overall seed, then you’ve had a really good season.
Iowa State, they’ve got two terrific Canadians in Marial Shayok and Lindell Wigginton, both guys who I think, at some point, will get a close look at the NBA level. Shayok can really shoot it, Wigginton can score and though he comes off the bench, they really have more like six starters because when he comes off the bench he adds energy, fire and he can drive the ball and pull and shoot. So they are two of the best players that Iowa State has.
At Florida is Andrew Nembhard, who I think has had a really good season as a freshman point guard. Florida’s kind of underachieved this season, at least until the SEC Tournament, but Nembhard makes them go. He’s a great decision-maker, he’s got good vision, he can knock down an open shot and I think he’s got a really bright future. He plays with the maturity of a much older player.
Then Florida State. Here’s a guy people have to get to know: Mfiondu Kabengele, who might be their best player. Now he comes off the bench, but he’s their leading scorer, he was the ACC Sixth Man of the Year, and he’s going to play in the NBA one day.
Florida State is deep, long and athletic, and they rotate in and out of a lot of guys — nobody plays 35 minutes for Florida State — but Kabengele plays with unbelievable competitiveness and intensity, he can score inside and outside, he blocks shots. I love him. I just think Kabengele is a terrific player.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech, probable first-round pick. And especially with their point guard Justin Robinson being out lately, he makes everything go for them. He can bring the ball up, he can knock down a shot, he can drive. Just a really talented offensive player.
Lugentz Dort at Arizona State is a two-guard who looks like a football player out there. A big, strong kid who’s a really good defensive player.
Iggy Brazdeikis at Michigan is such a wild card for them. I think when Brazdeikis plays well, Michigan plays with anybody in the country.
Brandon Clarke at Gonzaga, born in Vancouver but raised in Phoenix, is a terrific rebounder, great guy inside, good shot-blocker who is just a really talented, physical guy who plays hard upfront for Gonzaga.
Oshae Brissett at Syracuse, who hasn’t had as good of a year as he did last year, but when he gets inside and gets around the rim and doesn’t just settle for threes all the time he’s a really solid player and a big part of them.
So there are Canadians everywhere. There are going to be at least 10 or 12 significant Canadian players in this tournament.
SN: Lastly, can you give us your Final Four and who wins in your national championship game?
DS: I believe the ones and twos are significantly better than everybody else and there’s a real gap. So I’d like to be more interesting, so I’m not going to go deeper than that.
So I will go Duke out of the East, Gonzaga out of the West, Tennessee out of the South and North Carolina out of the Midwest.
And I will have North Carolina defeating Duke in the championship game.
