With the First Four wrapping up Wednesday night and the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament beginning in earnest Thursday, we asked Dan Shulman — ESPN NCAA basketball broadcaster and Sportsnet Toronto Blue Jays play-by-play man — to let us know who he likes to win it all, sleeper picks and players to watch as we get set for March Madness.
Here’s what he had to say.
Q: How many teams do you think can realistically win it all?
I realistically think 10 or 11 teams can win it. This is the most wide open I think it’s ever been. There are no truly great teams this year, and if you look at the number of losses that teams in the top 10 had during the season, it’s an all-time record. We’ve never seen so many losses among the top-10 teams.
I think 20, 25 could get to the Final Four, but 10 or 11 could win it.
Q: What seeding are you looking at for these 10, 11 teams?
I don’t have anybody lower than a four who I think could win it.
Virginia is the No. 1-overall seed, but they just lost a very important player, De’Andre Hunter, which I think has the potential to hurt them, though I still think they’re going to be great.
A team like Arizona, which comes in as a No. 4 seed in my mind might be the second-most talented team in the country, but they had their ups and downs this year. They’re playing better lately and they’re peaking at the right time. They could certainly get all the way to San Antonio.
Michigan State as a No. 3 seed is another tremendously good team, and actually the team I’m picking to win it all. They’re in a very difficult bracket, Kansas and Duke are in there as well, but I think Michigan State — with their experience and depth — they’re my pick to win it all.
Two teams out of the West I like: Michigan has been on a tremendous roll, winning the Big Ten tournament for the second time in a row. They are as connected and together a team that I think that there is in the tournament, and I like their chances of going a long way.
And I like Gonzaga as well. I know that people in Canada take a bit of an extra interest in Gonzaga because they’ve had some Canadians before and I think people are sleeping on them a little bit right now. They’re playing great basketball the second half of the season and I’ve actually got them going to the Final Four this year.
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Q: Did the Committee get the seeding right? It’s been said No. 1-overall seed Virginia got an undeservingly harder road.
Looking at Virginia, they’ve got Cincinnati as the No. 2 and Tennessee as the No. 3, and I think that’s manageable for them if you compare it to, say, Duke and Michigan State or North Carolina and Michigan, I don’t think it’s that out of whack.
I thought that Michigan State was one seed too low and Arizona was probably one seed too low.
Really, though, I’m not one of those who looks at the four regions and says, “this one is much weaker than that one” and “somebody’s been hard done by.” I’m not in that camp. [The Selection Committee] do have to adhere to certain rules in terms of geography and conference affiliation and so forth, which makes their job a little bit harder, but I don’t agree that Virginia’s got a noticeably tougher road to the Final Four than anybody else does.
Q: Who has the easiest route to the Final Four?
I would say [East No. 1 seed] Villanova has the easiest route to the Final Four. [No. 2 seed in the East] Purdue’s a great team. Purdue’s got everything you need to get to the Final Four: They’ve got size, they’ve got experience, they’ve got shooters, they’ve got a terrific lead guard in Carsen Edwards.
But after Purdue I’m not sure about the strength of that bracket. [No. 3] Texas Tech is a good team, [No. 4] Wichita State is a good team, [No. 5] West Virginia’s a good team but I think there’s a drop-off after the top two seeds.
Q: Butler’s a popular sleeper pick. Why is that? Can you list any other sleepers out there?
Butler probably because, in the past, they’ve had a lot of tournament success. Different coach, different players now, I think they’re a good team but they’re not as talented as they’ve been in the past. They’re capable of doing some damage, but I think the reason they’re a popular sleeper pick is because they’ve been a popular sleeper pick in the past.
The teams that I’m looking at, if you’re looking for sleepers who might have a chance to do some damage, I like Davidson, they did great in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and although Kentucky is playing well right now I think they could be beat by Davidson.
I like South Dakota State as a potential sleeper pick in the west as No. 12, I think they have a good team.
And with St. Bonaventure winning their play-in game, I think they’ve got a chance to beat Florida. I think they’re a really tough team, they’ve got a great guard in Jaylen Adams, they’re an experienced team and Florida is a hot-and-cold team, they shoot a ton of threes – if they make them they win, if they don’t they lose. So St. Bonaventure is a team that I look at as one that could do some damage.
I like Providence as well. I think they’ll beat Texas A&M in the first round, and they are a really battle-tested, tough group of guys and, assuming they play North Carolina in the second round, North Carolina’s great, but I think Providence is going to give them a heck of a battle.
Q: Are there any teams in the field you think are peaking at the right time?
Michigan definitely is. Michigan has been as good a team as there’s been in the country during the second half of the year – late in the season and then winning the Big Ten tournament.
They know exactly who they are. They know what their strengths are, they know what they have to do to win games. So I think that’s a team that’s really, really interesting.
Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season right now. As I mentioned before, I think Davidson can get them but I think Kentucky’s coming in playing as well as they have all year.
And Virginia, they’re the No. 1-overall seed, but they just keep doing their thing. They’re not flashy, they’re not sexy but they win every game by about six or eight points – as I mentioned, though, they do have an injury, and that’s something to be mindful of.
Q: Who are some of the elite NBA prospects who stood out to you this season?
There’s a lot of them.
DeAndre Ayton for Arizona could be the No. 1 pick, likely will be the No. 1 pick.
Marvin Bagley III for Duke is gonna be a top-three pick and is absolutely fantastic.
Mo Bamba of Texas is probably gonna be a top-five-or-six pick.
And, who knows how long he’ll last, but Collin Sexton of Alabama, their point guard, can take over a game by himself, something he did a couple of times in the SEC tournament. He is absolutely sensational. One of the best point guards in the country and one of my favourite players to watch in the country.
Dan Shulman’s 2018 bracket revealed:
Q: What about Trae Young? Can he elevate Oklahoma like Steph Curry did with Davidson in 2008?
He can, but he only did in the first half of the year.
He was the best player in the country in the first half of the year, and then he shot very poorly, didn’t play nearly as well in the second half of the season.
I actually don’t think Oklahoma belongs in the tournament. They lost 11 of their last 15 games and it depends if you’re looking at overall résumé, “how good do we think they are now?” and that sort of thing.
Trae Young is capable of going off for 40 points, he’s also capable of going 3-for-17. Teams have learned how to defend him better, they’ve learned to force some of his teammates to beat them and he’s a huge name. He’s gonna be a first-round pick and so forth, but I think Trae Young’s situation is much, much different than it was a couple of months ago.
Q: Is there a player in the tournament that can carry a team right to a national championship?
There are lots of them.
If Xavier goes on a run it’ll be because Trevon Bluiett is playing great.
If Kansas goes to the Final Four they’ve got Devonte’ Graham who, like Frank Mason III a year ago, is just one of the best leaders, best players, best quarterbacks in the country. I hope he gets a good, solid look in the NBA, he deserves it, but he’s an absolutely sensational player.
Michigan State has Miles Bridges, who can be quiet sometimes but can also be the best player on the court sometimes, and he’s going to be a lottery pick.
Jevon Carter, the point guard for West Virginia, is terrific. Landry Shamet, the point guard for Wichita State, is terrific. And if those two schools meet in the second round that will be a great game to watch.
Jalen Brunson, who would be my pick for national player of the year, is the point guard on Villanova and he’s fantastic. He can beat you 10 different ways. He can beat you without having the biggest numbers in the game, he can score, he can get to the rim, he can shoot, he can get to the foul line, he can set up his teammates. He’s really something else.
Q: Who are the Canadians of note in the tournament?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is great. In my opinion, he’s Kentucky’s best player. He didn’t come into Kentucky this year as their highest-ranked recruit but, in my opinion, there’s no question he’s been the best player Kentucky has and if he enters the NBA draft – and I think he will – he’s a surefire first-round pick and maybe a lottery pick. He’s really, really good.
His cousin, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, is a starter on Virginia Tech, and he’s a very good player as well. He starts for them at one of their wing spots and he’s a guy capable of putting up 15, 18 points in a game.
So it’s interesting that two of the biggest names out there are cousins and played against one another and grew up as family for so many years.
Oshae Brissett of Syracuse is a star. Not sure how far the Orange can get in the tournament, but he is a really skilled player — can shoot, drive, and is an excellent rebounder. A future NBA player without a doubt.
Q: What’s your Final Four and who’s your national champion?
I have Michigan State over Villanova and I have Virginia over Gonzaga, and then Michigan State over Virginia in the final.
