If Raptors fans on the tank train were worried about the team’s recent success, they can probably rest easy next week, as Toronto opens a road trip against three of the Western Conference’s top teams.
The Raptors’ next stretch of games is against the Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, teams with a combined record of 55-19. The Thunder, Spurs and Mavs are first, third and sixth in the West respectively, while Toronto, despite being eighth in the East, would have the third worst record in the West.
The Raptors also haven’t played particularly well against teams from the West this season, winning just three of the nine games they have played against the superior conference.
All of these factors add up to the Raptors facing a long, possibly winless road trip.
New-Look Raptors
In four out of the five games the Raptors have played since trading Rudy Gay, they have shot at least 45 per cent from the floor, the longest prolonged stretch this season. In the last four games, Toronto has recorded 20 or more assists, including a season-best 26 during their win against Chicago on Saturday.
The obvious reason for this is that Gay, perhaps the league’s biggest ball stopper, is no longer clogging up the Raptors offence, allowing them more freedom to move the ball. Of course, acquiring a pass-first point guard in Greivis Vasquez certainly helps. Vasquez has led the team in assists in the last two games and has been a drastic upgrade over the Raptors’ previous platoon of Dwight Buycks, Julyan Stone and D.J Augustine at the backup point spot.
The formula for success in Toronto has been simple: move the ball and good things happen. The Raptors are 6-1 when they have as many or more assists than their opponents, which explains how they have been able to win three of their last five games sans Gay.
Tough Times in Texas
The Raptors have lost their last two trips to Dallas and are just 3-14 against the Mavs all-time. Likewise, Toronto’s now-offensive anchor DeMar DeRozan hasn’t fared well against Dallas. In seven games, he’s averaged just 13.4 points, a far cry from his season average of 21 points per game.
Results haven’t been much different against the Spurs, who’ve had an easy time handling the Raptors. They are 30-9 versus the Raptors all-time and have won six straight meetings including a 13-point drubbing just over a week ago at the Air Canada Centre. If that’s not enough, the Spurs are also red hot, having won seven straight before Thursday night’s game against the Warriors – a contest in which head coach Gregg Popovich sat most of his impact players.
Lowry Watch
Kyle Lowry’s name has come up in trade talks of late, most recently in a possible Knicks deal for a future first-round pick before owner James Dolan reportedly vetoed the move. While nothing substantial has surfaced since then, one would have to believe that Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri is still actively shopping Lowry and his expiring contract in hopes of landing a potential asset for the future.
Meanwhile, Lowry has been playing his best basketball of the season. Lowry is averaging 16.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game in Dec. and has recorded six or more assists in a career-high 15 straight games. He has found the ever-important balance between distributing the ball and calling his own number, something he seemed to struggle with after Gay came aboard.
Lowry’s hot streak is well-timed for the Raptors as he will be forced to run the gauntlet on this trip, going up against Jose Calderon, Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook. The Raptors will need him to rise to the occasion if they are going to have any shot at being competitive in those games.
Given his play of late, don’t be surprised if trade talks heat up in the near future.
Key to the trip
Ball movement. Ball movement. Ball movement.
It’s obvious, and it’s even mentioned above, but the simple fact is that the Raptors win when they share the basketball. This aspect of their game will be paramount as they prepare to go against two of the NBA’s best defensive teams.
The Spurs have the second-best defensive rating in the league at 96.6. The Thunder are close behind at 97.7 and both clubs are loaded with strong perimeter stoppers and well-coached team defenders.
This will easily be the biggest test the post-trade Raptors have faced, as the recent wins have come against shorthanded squads and teams with poor defences.
These games might not make or break the season per se, but they should go a long way in deciding if the Raptors are truly a competitive team, or if they are better suited for the tank.
