The NBA season kicks off in less than a week and while Sportsnet’s panel of basketball experts have already weighed in on some of the biggest questions going into the season, we’ve decided to take forecasting 2015-16 to a whole new level.
Thanks to the power of video game NBA 2K16, Sportsnet has put together a complete season simulation, with particular emphasis on the fortunes of the new-look Toronto Raptors.
We’ve broken the simulation down into a number of sections: The season summary, how each month of the season went and a complete round-by-round breakdown of the playoffs.
Note: The rosters at the beginning of the simulation were up-to-date as of Oct. 22.
SEASON SUMMARY
How did the Raptors do?
The many changes Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri made to the roster certainly did not pan out in the simulation. Toronto finished the season a dreadful 17-65 and finished with the worst record in the league by a large margin (the second-worst team, Denver Nuggets, had 11 more wins than Toronto did).
To put into context how putrid this showing is, Toronto’s worst-ever season was a 16-66 horror show in 1997-98 – the team’s third season in existence.
The largest reason why the Raptors did as poorly as they did in the simulation is all the defensive stoppers they got in the off-season didn’t seem to do anything as the team allowed a league-worst 111.3 points per game.
As a result of the poor performance, a lot of interesting things went down with the team including a big trade that saw the team acquire Andre Drummond from the Detroit Pistons for Jonas Valanciunas (full details on Toronto’s activity in the simulation in the month-by-month look).
Just about the only highlight of the simulation, from a Raptors perspective, was to see DeMar DeRozan get selected for the all-star game in Toronto.
Raptors fans can only hope this simulation will reflect nothing when the ball tips for real on Oct. 28.
Team Leaders
PPG: DeMar DeRozan – 19.6
RPG: Andre Drummond – 12.4
APG: Kyle Lowry – 6.4
The rest of the league
According to our simulation, the Chicago Bulls will win the NBA championship this season, defeating the San Antonio Spurs in five games.
After a season plagued by injury, Kevin Durant returned in this simulation with vengeance, capturing the MVP award and leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to the best record in the NBA (59-23).
The rookie of the year race really just came down to two players all season long, D’Angelo Russell of the Los Angeles Lakers and Jahlil Okafor from the Philadelphia 76ers. In the end, the Lakers guard won out.
The rookie race was made a little more interesting in the simulation as Philadelphia centre Joel Embiid was playing (since the 76ers haven’t officially announced him out for the season, the game’s roster has him in).
Russell’s performance in the simulation was so impressive that he was named to an All-NBA team. Other than him, and maybe the Utah Jazz’s Gordon Hayward, the three teams have the usual suspects of league killers that you’d expect, with the exception of Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul and New Orleans Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis.
While it looks like our simulation snubbed him in regards to an All-NBA nod, Davis was not to be denied as far as his defence goes. the Pelicans centre won defensive player of the year, and headlined all-defensive team that left off last season’s defensive player of the year recipient Kawhi Leonard of the San Antonio Spurs.
Rounding out the rest of the awards, the Clippers’ Josh Smith was named sixth man of the year, the Phoenix Suns’ Eric Bledose won most improved player and Thunder coach Billy Donovan took home coach of the year.
League Leaders
PPG: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – 29.7
RPG: DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) – 14.6
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 10.4
Rookie Leaders
PPG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 18.9
RPG: Joel Embiid (76ers) – 9.2
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.3
MONTHLY BREAKDOWNS
October/November
Injuries hit teams hard in the first month-and-a-bit of the season with players such as the Atlanta Hawks’ Paul Millsap, Andrew Wiggins of the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Clippers’ Paul among the many big names going down.
On the Raptors front, Indications of a dreadful season came immediately with the team dropping its season opener 125-87 to the Indiana Pacers. The team would finish the month with a 5-13 record and close out November on a five-game losing skid.
Transactions
Significant Injuries
Players of the Month
East: LeBron James (Cavaliers)
West: Russell Westbrook (Thunder)
Rookies of the Month
East: Jahlil Okafor (76ers)
West: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers)
League Leaders
PPG: Kevin Durant (Thunder) – 30.2
RPG: Andre Drummond (Pistons) – 13.8
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 11.8
Rookie Leaders
PPG: Jahlil Okafor (76ers) – 18.2
RPG: Jahlil Okafor (76ers) – 9.3
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.0
December
The Raptors made a significant move in December, trading the team’s prize free agent acquisition DeMarre Carroll along with first-round draft pick Delon Wright to the Hawks for guard Dennis Schroeder and forward Tiago Splitter. Unfortunately for the team, the trade didn’t spark anything as it went 1-10 afterwards and closed out the month on a seven-game slide.
More significantly than the Raptors, however, is the moves the computer made to sign three big free-agents-to-be into big extensions.
The summer of 2016’s biggest prize Durant, along with Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal and Detroit Pistons centre Andre Drummond all signed extensions to remain with their teams. Seeing this really drives home the fact that this is all a video-game simulation, as real-life NBA players don’t miss an opportunity to test the market ever nowadays.
Transactions
Significant Injuries
Players of the Month
East: Al Horford (Hawks)
West: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers)
Rookies of the Month
East: Jahlil Okafor (76ers)
West: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers)
League Leaders
PPG: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – 28.8
RPG: DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) – 15.1
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 10.7
Rookie Leaders
PPG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 18.6
RPG: Jahlil Okafor (76ers) – 9.3
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.6
January
Given how poorly the team was performing it came as no surprise to see the Raptors fire head coach Dwane Casey in our January simulation. Interestingly enough, the interim coach the team hired was Raptors faithful favourite Tom Sterner, who, was actually still listed as an assistant coach in the game, despite him being fired by the club in May.
Additionally, the all-star team rosters were announced with rookies Okafor and Russell both getting the nod, Indiana Pacers forward Paul George returning to his all-star form, Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley finally getting his first all-star selection, the strange omissions of last season’s MVP Stephen Curry and all-star mainstay Paul and with the game in Toronto, the Raptors got a selection in DeRozan.
Transactions
Significant Injuries
All-Star Teams
East
West
Players of the Month
East: Pau Gasol (Bulls)
West: Kevin Durant (Thunder)
Rookies of the Month
East: Joel Embiid (76ers)
West: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers)
League Leaders
PPG: Kevin Durant (Thunder) – 28.7
RPG: DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) – 15.4
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 10.7
Rookie Leaders
PPG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 19.4
RPG: Jahlil Okafor (76ers) – 9.2
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.8
February
In what looks to be an effort to re-shape the team’s identity, the Raptors traded Valanciunas, the big man they had just committed a long-term extension to, and rookie guard Norman Powell to the Pistons for Drummond and Reggie Bullock in our February simulation.
This deal was made a few days before the trade deadline so Toronto wasn’t active on the day, but closer to the big day and actually on it notable names such as Brandon Knight, Brook Lopez, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo were all on the move.
Meanwhile, Casey isn’t the only coach to lose his job thanks to an impatient computer, with the Hornets and 76ers both firing their respective coaches this month, too.
Transactions
Significant Injuries
Players of the Month
East: LeBron James (Cavaliers)
West: Marc Gasol (Grizzlies)
Rookies of the Month
East: Jahlil Okafor (76ers)
West: Emmanuel Mudiay (Nuggets)
League Leaders
PPG: Kevin Durant (Thunder) – 29.0
RPG: DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) – 15.3
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 10.4
Rookie Leaders
PPG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 19.3
RPG: Jahlil Okafor (76ers) – 9.3
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.4
March
Firmly out of any sniff of this simulated playoff picture, the Raptors put together their best month of the season in March, going 5-11.
Meanwhile, the league’s top team, the Thunder, saw star point guard Russell Westbrook go down with injury for a little while.
Transactions
None.
Significant Injuries
Players of the Month
East: Carmelo Anthony (Knicks)
West: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers)
Rookies of the Month
East: Joel Embiid (76ers)
West: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers)
League Leaders
PPG: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – 29.4
RPG: DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) – 14.7
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 10.4
Rookie Leaders
PPG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 19.3
RPG: Joel Embiid (76ers) – 9.4
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.3
April
Toronto finished its dismal season on a bright note, beating the Brooklyn Nets 104-94. Afterwards, the team fired Sterner.
Knicks coach Derek Fisher and the Jazz’s Quin Snyder were also relieved of their sideline duties in the final regular-season month of our simulation.
Transactions
Significant Injuries
Players of the Month
East: Al Horford (Hawks)
West: Kevin Durant (Thunder)
Rookies of the Month
East: Jahlil Okafor (76ers)
West: Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves)
League Leaders
PPG: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – 29.7
RPG: DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) – 14.6
APG: Russell Westbrook (Thunder) – 10.4
Rookie Leaders
PPG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 18.9
RPG: Joel Embiid (76ers) – 9.2
APG: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – 7.3
PLAYOFFS
The simulated regular season ended up getting pretty wacky mainly because of the trades that were happening. By comparison to what happened in these playoffs, however, all that movement looks tame.
The NBA’s playoffs are notorious for the lack of parity and upsets in them – at least that’s the case in real life. When it comes to the virtual world, as we found out, anything truly is possible.
First Round
While the East went pretty much all according to plan, the West was pure insanity in the first round with every single higher seeded team going down, including the Thunder who boasted the best record in the league and fell to the Grizzlies in six games.
If this was real life this would be the second time Memphis has upset a No. 1 seed as the No. 8 seed (they did it in 2011) and only the sixth time in NBA history that it would’ve happened.
Playoff Leaders
PPG: Klay Thompson (Warriors) – 28.3
RPG: Pau Gasol (Bulls) – 15.4
APG: Tyreke Evans (Pelicans) – 11.8
Second Round
Things normalize in the second round with all the higher seeds advancing.
As an interesting aside, in this 2016 simulation the Warriors have knocked out the exact same opponents they went through last season en route to the conference final (Pelicans, Grizzlies).
Playoff Leaders
PPG: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – 29.2
RPG: Pau Gasol (Bulls) – 13.8
APG: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – 10.2
Note: This board is only for players who played in the second round.
Conference Finals
This is what every fan wants in the conference finals, to see both series go seven games.
Out West, the Spurs managed to overcome the defending champion Golden State Warriors and become only the second No. 6 seed to reach the Finals.
Meanwhile, the Bulls overcame adversity themselves, going the full seven in two straight series coming away the victors.
Playoff Leaders
PPG: Kyrie Irving (Cavaliers) – 27.9
RPG: Pau Gasol (Bulls) – 13.7
APG: LeBron James (Cavaliers) – 8.3
Note: This board is only for players who played in the conference finals.
The Finals
As is usually the case the Finals ended up being pretty anti-climactic as the Bulls just rolled over the Spurs to take the championship in five games.
Playoff Leaders
PPG: Jimmy Butler (Bulls) – 19.8
RPG: Pau Gasol (Bulls) – 13.6
APG: Joakim Noah (Bulls) – 5.8
Note: This board is only for players who played in the Finals.
All images courtesy Steven Loung/Sportsnet
