WASHINGTON, DC — So, here we are. Game 6. Back in Washington. Raptors with a game in hand. Wizards playing to live or die another day. If it feels like this series has taken a while to play out, that’s because it has. It started almost two weeks ago. It looked like it could be a sweep for a while. Then, it didn’t, as the Raptors suffered one of their existential crises (it’s important to uphold traditions). Now, after a fifth contest that was very much hanging in the balance until only five minutes remained, we finally get a game that could end it.
And, if recent history holds true, it won’t. Dating back to the beginning of the 2017 playoffs, the Wizards have gone 8-0 in post-season games on their home floor. They’ve outscored their opposition by a combined 93 points in those games. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly a dozen. Look, just because something’s happened before doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again. But the Raptors were riding pretty high when they came into Washington for game 3 last Friday, and how’d that turn out?
“I think we’ve just got to block out everything else. We’ve got to play with extreme confidence, like we do when we’re at home,” DeMar DeRozan said Friday morning before the Raptors held shootaround at Capital One Arena. “Block out their crowd, and don’t let them get their crowd into it — for them to feed off. We just got to stay locked in. We got to understand they’re going to make runs, it’s going to be an extremely tough game, but it’s something we can pull off. And we have to pull it off.”
Well, they don’t have to. It’d be nice. It would certainly be preferred. But the entire burden in this game rests with the Wizards. If the Raptors lose, they’ll still have the fallback of a Game 7 Sunday on their home floor, where they’ve gone 24-6 since the beginning of 2018. One assumes that should allow the Raptors to play with ease Friday, free of the stress and anxiety the Wizards will experience with every misstep. One assumes that should allow the Raptors to focus on what matters most.
“Play our game, execute,” a focused Kyle Lowry said. “Play with the same confidence that we do at home. Take shots. Get the ball up. Try to play turnover-free basketball. Follow our game plan.”
Sounds simple enough. That’s how the Raptors won Game 5, finally overcoming their absurd turnover woes (after averaging nearly 17 a night through the first four games of the series, Toronto coughed the ball up only 10 times Wednesday), taking advantage of open looks, playing energetic, comprehensive defence during crunch time, and spreading the ball around, as four Raptors made 10 attempts or more.
That last part is key. In each of Toronto’s three wins in this series, the Raptors have gotten a significant contribution from a player not named Kyle or DeMar. In Game 1, it was Serge Ibaka leading the team with 23 points and 12 rebounds. In Game 2, it was Jonas Valanciunas with 19 and 14, and CJ Miles hitting four threes off the bench. In Game 5, it was Delon Wright activating video game mode and scoring 11 of his 18 points in the fourth quarter.
In Washington’s two victories, those ancillary performances weren’t there. No Raptor played well in Game 3, and in Game 4, DeRozan’s nearly 50 per cent usage rate was a discouraging sight, both on paper and on the floor.
“There’s no question — we need a third and fourth guy to step up,” said Raptors head coach Dwane Casey. “Serge had it — the first two games were great. So, we’re still looking for him to step up and give us his production, whether it’s rebounding, blocking shots, or defending.
“I thought Delon did a great job. CJ came in the other night at the four position and did a good job of spacing the floor, knocking down his opportunities. You’ve got to have that in a game like tonight, because they’re going to do a good job of trying to take out DeMar and Kyle. You’ve got to expect that.”
Really, this is what we’ve learned from the series. The Raptors are a much more well-rounded team than the Wizards, and their clearest path to victory is by using their talented depth to exploit Washington’s lack of it. If the game becomes purely a starting backcourt competition between Lowry and DeRozan, and John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards will likely hold the edge more often than not.
What the Raptors can do that the Wizards cannot is get game-changing shooting performances from a bench player like Miles, or take-over-the-game quarters from a back-up point guard like Wright. Even a rookie like OG Anunoby, who has quietly been a very important player for the Raptors in the series, can expose the Wizards when left open beyond the arc or allowed to sneak behind enemy lines with a back-cut.
The Wizards will ride or die with two players and two players only. The Raptors can do so much more. And if they do, if they play the way they know they can, Toronto could hand Washington its first playoff defeat in their own building since 2015.
“If you have to talk about sense of urgency or toughness, we shouldn’t be here — if you don’t bring that in this building,” Casey said. “I’m sure our guys will bring that tonight. There’s no doubt in my mind that we’ll bring that sense of urgency, the mental toughness that you have to have to close out a series.”
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