The Toronto Raptors are an NBA-best 5-0. It ties their best start to a season ever, and a win on Friday versus the Dallas Mavericks will make this the most successful start to a campaign in franchise history.
Through their five wins, the Raptors have been led by their marquee players and are getting it done on both ends of the court. Let’s dive into the numbers to get a sense of what, exactly, has been fuelling the Raps’ hot start:
The Pseudo-Starters
Yes, Nick Nurse has been fluid with his lineups and rotations thus far, most noticeably when it comes to the starting centre, with Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka both filling the role, depending on matchups.
But the most consistent starting five thus far has featured Ibaka alongside Kyle Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Pascal Siakam. And that group has been one of the most effective in the NBA thus far.
Of all five-man lineups that have logged 40 minutes shared on the court or more, the Raptors’ de facto starters rank second in offensive rating and net rating, behind only Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans starters in that category.
On the other side of the ball, Toronto’s defensive rating ranks third at 88.1 (for reference, the lower the number the better; anything around the 100 mark is considered good), while allowing opponents to shoot just 36 per cent from the floor. To put that in context, when they’re on the floor together those five Raptors boast an effective field-goal rate of 67.4 per cent and a true shooting percentage of 68.4 per cent — both tops in the NBA.
It’s an interesting flip for the Raptors, who, last season, were fuelled by a best-in-class second unit that would pick up from where the starters left off — which was more often than not a close game — and seemingly reel off a 10-point run before the other team blinked. Now, as the second unit has struggled some and Nurse continues to tweak his lineup combos, it’s the starters who obliterate opponents while the bench treads water.
Lowry’s dimes
Lowry has been stellar for the Raptors thus far, bringing his typically strong defence to the table along with his best offensive start of a season to date. He’s on fire shooting the ball — over 53 per cent from deep — and is a whopping plus-13.8 when on the floor this season. But it’s his playmaking that has had the biggest impact to the Raptors’ hot start.
At 10 assists per game, he leads the NBA and is clearly making a point to set up his teammates as the team looks to take advantage of all of the weapons in its arsenal. In the last three games alone he’s averaged 12 assists per game.
Lowry’s two favourite targets have been the newcomers, Leonard and Green, who have received 23.6 and 19.6 per cent of his passes, respectively. Whether those passes lead to shots — Green is an especially willing catch-and-shooter and the two have already found chemistry in that regard — or serve as a pass that leads to an assist, a big part of the Raptors’ offensive success to date can be traced back to Lowry’s quarterbacking and quick, deliberate decision-making with the ball.
He’s been just as effective setting up the Raptors bigs, too, and on average, two assists per game come from Ibaka baskets. Ibaka has been off to a strong start and is seeing a dramatic change in his shot selection. Having your point guard look to find you easy opportunities like this certainly helps:
Green leads the Raptors in plus/minus at 15.4. Leonard is second at 14.8.
So, yeah, the newest players have made an impact. Both have been as advertised — game-changing two-way talents — and each have excelled at what they do best.
Green has played a big role in solidifying the defence and is a significant improvement over DeMar DeRozan in that regard. Apart from being an above-average shot blocker for his position (he leads the Raptors at 1.2 per game) opposing shooters are hitting just 34.2 per cent of their shots when guarded by Green, including just 27 per cent on three-pointers. For comparison, last season DeRozan’s matchups shot 45 per cent from the floor and 39.3 per cent from deep.
Offensively, Green’s own three-point contributions have been significant. He’s hit over 42 per cent of his long-bomb attempts, and has been most effective on quick catch-and-shoot opportunities. Nearly 65 per cent of his team-high 6.6 three-point attempts have come off catch-and-shoot chances, and he’s converting 48.1 per cent of them.
Like Green, Leonard’s fingerprints are all over the 5-0 start. He’s missed one of those games — resting on the second night of a back-to-back as the team takes precautions following his season-ending injury last year — but when on the floor he’s been a magnetic force.
His 35 points on Wednesday night were a season-high, and he’s now averaging 28 points on the season — which would be a career-high if sustained — along with 7.8 boards. His 31.4 per cent usage rate is currently the highest of his career, as is his 123.4 offensive rating.
But when it comes to Leonard, the numbers can never capture what he does on the floor. For example, this play was recorded as just another one of his five steals this season, but it’s clearly so much more:
After the game Leonard confirmed that he in fact never saw the ball leave Gorgui Dieng’s hand before diving to intercept the bounce pass, and that next-level awareness makes a difference in countless ways.
And yet, there’s a lack of explosiveness in his play thus far, at least compared to what we’re used to seeing from him. He’s clearly not at 100 per cent after missing all but nine games last season due to a quad injury. You can see him favouring one leg at times during stoppages in play, and his lift isn’t where it’s normally at quite yet. That the Raptors are getting this kind of production from their newest star as he still works his way back to full strength is a scary notion for the rest of the East.
Front-court efficiency
Raptors fans have to be pleased by what they’ve seen from the front court thus far. Both centres, Valanciunas and Ibaka, have been effective in their own way.
Ibaka has adapted to the full-time centre role well and should continue to find comfort in his new position. Nurse has said that, offensively, playing the five should be easier for Ibaka, and it seems like the big man has been finding shots more within the flow of the game, less forced, while remaining a capable defensive presence.
As I covered earlier this week, the difference in his shot selection has been fairly dramatic. Last season 53 per cent of his shots came off catch-and-shoot opportunities, while 13.7 per cent were pull-up jumpers and 29.6 per cent attempts were taken within 10 feet of the hoop. So far this season his catch-and-shoot attempts are down to 38 per cent, just seven per cent of his shots have been pull-ups and now the majority — 52.4 per cent — have come within 10 feet.
Valanciunas has also thrived in a new role. Coming off the bench for three of the Raptors’ five games, he’s been dominating the glass and seemingly scoring at will as something of a second-unit centrepiece. He’s playing fewer minutes than ever at 18.8 per game — the only time his average has dipped below 20 — but is posting career-high per-36 minute averages of 22.8 points and 16.6 rebounds.
The Raptors have found a potent one-two punch at centre, and credit to Nurse for moving away from playing the two together and maximizing their respective abilities early this season.
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