TORONTO — In a pre-game ceremony Sunday, Toronto Raptors strength and conditioning coach Jon Lee was presented with his 2017-18 strength coach of the year award from the NBA Strength and Conditioning Coaches Association. The next day, he enjoyed a similarly coveted honour — a shout out from Jonas Valanciunas.
"It’s not fun sitting on the sidelines — it’s not fun just running with Jonny Lee," Valanciunas was saying, summing up the last two months he’s spent recovering from left thumb surgery. "I’m not saying he’s a bad guy. He’s the strength-and-conditioning coach of the year. But it’s not fun just doing things without competition. I miss competition."
For Valanciunas, competition will come soon. After emerging from his latest full practice unscathed, the Raptors centre is expected to make his return to the team’s lineup sometime in the next week during the team’s three-game road trip through Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York.
"Definitely — we’re planning to play him on this trip," Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said. "He’s looked good. He was full-go again today. He had a good pre-practice run as well with some live stuff. The sooner the better."
No kidding. The Raptors have missed Valanciunas in a variety of areas since a heavy Draymond Green swat dislocated his thumb in mid-December. Toronto’s paint points and rebounding are down, and their opponents are posting higher numbers in those areas. The Raptors’ net rating has also plummeted, and while Valanciunas’s absence isn’t entirely to blame for that, it’s played a part.
"Obviously, when we face big guys that are matchup issues, it’s really important. I also just think that it gives us such a different feel," Nurse said of having Valanciunas in the lineup. "All of a sudden we’re big and strong — and we’re a little bit more fluid and spacey. There’s more space. I like that feel. Before, [Joel] Embiid had a tough time when we could throw both different looks at him. We miss the different looks."
Serge Ibaka is the other element of those different looks, and without Valanciunas available, he’s had to shoulder much of Toronto’s workload burden at centre. His average nightly minutes have increased by four, and considering Greg Monroe’s an extremely matchup-dependant centre, it hasn’t been unusual of late to see Ibaka asked to play well north of 35 minutes in Valanciunas’s absence.
Ibaka’s a strong rim protector, but Valanciunas is a much more natural weapon in screen-and-rolls with Raptors shooters. Ibaka’s operated well in pick-and-pop actions this season. But that allows defenders to stay closer to Raptors guards as they come off his screens. When Valanciunas is rolling to the basket, it creates more space for shooters to enjoy open looks.
"My main thing is setting good screens and getting guys open," Valanciunas said. "That’s my job — getting guys open. I’m not saying Serge or Greg don’t do a good job. But that’s specifically my job — to free the shooters. Setting good ball screens. Setting good pick-and-rolls. That’s my thing."
Nurse would certainly love to have Valanciunas back for Tuesday’s game in Philadelphia, so he can throw those varied looks at Embiid once again. But the Raptors will prioritize getting Valanciunas as close to 100 per cent as possible, which could mean he sits out until one of the latter two games on the trip.
A good test came during Monday’s practice, when Valanciunas took hard contact on his thumb during a drill. He said it was still sore, but that playing through some pain isn’t a problem. A bigger one has been finding the right taping method that provides enough stability to Valanciunas’s thumb joint while not restricting his ability to get a good grip on the ball.
The process continues. But with each passing day, Valanciunas gets closer and closer to his much anticipated, and much needed, return.
"It’s good to be back in practice, have some action – it’s just good to be a part of the team," he said. "It’s about me feeling comfortable. I need to get a couple practices in me. I can’t just go out there and play. But it’s going to be soon."
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Lowry doubtful for Tuesday
Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry sat out Monday’s practice after missing Sunday night’s game due to lower back soreness. He’ll be with the team in Philadelphia, but Nurse isn’t expecting Lowry to be able to play in front of his hometown crowd.
Lowry’s back issue has been a recurring one. It held him out for a four-game run in mid-December and then a six-game stretch at the end of that month and into early January. He returned to play a dozen games in a row after that, averaging 35 minutes per night. But now he’s facing at least a two-game absence as he continues to manage the injury.
It stands to reason that Lowry’s back trouble is affecting his performance, particularly on the offensive end. Lowry’s three-point shooting is down eight per cent from last season, and his effective field goal rate and true shooting have each declined as well. Valanciunas’s return should help, particularly in pick-and-rolls. But Lowry is still good enough to produce at a higher rate than he has, no matter who’s setting his screens.
Of course, he’s found other ways to contribute, posting a career-high 34.1 per cent assist rate and plus-10.2 net rating. He was named an all-star for a reason. But the Raptors still miss his point production, and one of the most dramatic improvements the team can make between now and the playoffs would be to return Lowry to the potent scoring threat he’s been over the last five seasons
"Doubtful — but you never know," Nurse said of Lowry’s status for Tuesday’s game against the 76ers. "I would assume he leans a little further towards doubtful that he’s going to be ready to go."
NBA trade deadline looms
Having spent considerable time coaching in Europe and what was then referred to as the NBA’s D-League, Nurse is well accustomed to roster uncertainty. So, no matter what comes ahead of this Thursday’s NBA trade deadline, he’ll approach it the same way he always does.
"I’ve become quite used to coaching what I’ve been given on the day or the week or the month," Nurse said Sunday. "That’s just how I look at it."
The most likely scenario is that the Raptors don’t make a dramatic move, banking on a return to health from Valanciunas, a return to form from Lowry, and the intangible returns on a season’s-worth of work and cohesion from the team’s current depth and role players, to provide a late-season boost.
Significant NBA trades are difficult to engineer, and Raptors president Masai Ujiri has generally preferred to make his during the off-season. He’s also constrained by the limited opportunities the market presents. You don’t make a deal just for the sake of making one. A supreme talent like Anthony Davis would obviously make any team better, but the cost to acquire such a consequential player, and the risk associated with overhauling a roster only two months prior to the playoffs, may prove too much to stomach.
Armed with an open roster spot and some financial flexibility, the Raptors are better positioned to be players on the post-deadline buyout market, as teams around the league shed veteran contracts. You’ll likely hear about the Raptors being interested in a variety of buyout candidates, from Wayne Ellington to Jeremy Lin to Monday’s buyout-candidate-du-jour, Wes Matthews.
A strong three-point shooter with a well-earned reputation as an energetic, effortful defender, Matthews would help address some of the deficiencies Toronto’s bench has demonstrated throughout the season, and bring more than 700 games of NBA experience with him. He’d certainly make the Raptors deeper and more versatile.
But just like he did when he was coaching in Europe or the minors, Nurse can only worry about the players he has today. His job is to get the most out of the Raptors as presently constructed — and leave that construction to Ujiri and the rest of the team’s front office.
"Listen, I love these guys and I’m trying to get every ounce out of all of them. There are some guys that are having unbelievable years, the best years of their lives. There’s a couple guys we need to get back up on the tracks a little bit and get them rolling and improve them," Nurse said. "I’m just focusing on that — first and foremost on playing this game to the best of our abilities today and then evaluate who played well, who didn’t, and how we can get them playing better."
