If Kevin Durant says the Toronto Raptors are the real deal, the rest of the league better believe it. But if they’ve been checking the stats lately, that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
Here are the numbers from this season so far that prove the Raptors aren’t just “up-and-coming” anymore.
12-3 on the road
The Raptors’ road record stands oppressively tall as the best in the league this season.
The .800 win ratio away from Scotiabank Arena makes Toronto No. 1 of six NBA teams who currently post a winning road record in the regular season. The Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets are next on the list, with an 8-6 (.571) record on the road, followed by the Boston Celtics, who are 9-7 (.562), the Oklahoma City Thunder (7-6) and the Sacramento Kings (8-7). Every other team has a .500 mark or worse in road games.
But the Raptors haven’t just been winning away from home, they’ve been doing it convincingly.
The team currently ranks third in opponent scoring per game in road matchups, holding home squads to just 104.4 points per contest. They’re also fifth in opponent shooting percentage (44.7 per cent), while converting 48.4 per cent of their own shots – good for fourth in the league and 114.4 points per game in away situations.
In the first two games of Toronto’s current Western Conference road trip on Tuesday and Wednesday, Toronto held the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors to a total of just 15 made three-pointers while shooting a little over 50 per cent from the field and adding an average of 10 steals per game to boost their 23-7 overall record on dominant back-to-back nights.
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Speaking of which…
6-0 in back-to-backs
Toronto has yet to drop the second game of a back-to-back this year, currently boasting a perfect 6-0 record in these situations.
Four of those six games were road-road affairs, which, according to Roto Grinders, gives a team only a 32.9 per cent chance of winning. On Wednesday, the Raptors finished a game at the Clippers and headed to Oakland the same night to face the Warriors a few hours later. They still managed to drub the two-time defending champions 113-93.
In all fairness, while the numbers are impressive and the win against the Warriors is good reason for praise, just two of those six games were against teams currently above the playoff cut-off, as they’ve faced the Washington Wizards, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and the Warriors on the second night.
The Raptors have three back-to-backs left in the regular season, including another division face-off against the 76ers on Dec. 22 in Philadelphia.
It’s worth noting Kawhi Leonard hasn’t yet suited up for a second game in back-to-back situations, but the team doesn’t seem too affected by the absence of the two-time all-star and former defensive player of the year.
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In fact…
7-1 without Kawhi
The Raptors have failed to come away with a win in just one of the eight games Leonard has sat out this season, posting a 7-1 Kawhi-less record overall.
The sole loss without Leonard came by the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks on Oct. 29 – a 124-109 letdown, their first loss of the season.
While Kawhi has scored double digits in every game he’s played this season, players like Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam have been absorbing the scoring load in his absence. Lowry, for example, is averaging 14.2 points per game this year, but scored 21 against the Clippers and 23 against the Warriors this week – as Leonard sat both games with a bruised hip and refused to do so much as contribute to the Christmas spirit, let alone the stat sheet. Ibaka has a season average of 16.8 points and scored a total of 45 between Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games.
The Raptors have also found a way to translate Leonard’s crucial defensive contributions into success even when he’s off the court, as the team has forced an average of 15.2 turnovers per game when he hasn’t played.
The winning record and individual performances justify the team’s ever-careful approach with Leonard, as the Raptors continue their campaign as one of the most lethal offensive units in the league.
Top-3 offence
In addition to the best win-loss overall record, Toronto ranks among the three best teams in the league in four offensive categories.
Points per game: 115.6, tied for third
Offensive rating: 113.2, tied for second
Effective field-goal percentage: 54.9%, third
True shooting percentage: 58.3%, third
The team’s overall net rating is also second in the league, trailing only the Bucks, who have been the Raptors’ toughest regular-season opponent so far, an 0-2 head-to-head record with two more games to go.
A crucial offensive adjustment that could give the Raptors an edge against their Eastern Conference rivals is possession management.
Bottom-half pace
“There’s always room for improvement” is an often-professed sentence among coaching staff, players and media about this overachieving Raptors team.
Toronto currently ranks 16th in the league in pace, which means the team is currently averaging less possessions per 48 minutes than half the league, with a 100.85 mark. As a comparison, the Bucks average 103.53 possessions per 48 minutes – good for fourth in the league.
It might not seem like a big gap, but in close, down-the-stretch games, three extra possessions might be the defining detail between winning and losing. Furthermore, uptempo games are a current tendency in the NBA, almost forcing teams to find ways to push up the game cadence and speed up the transition.
The Raptors, on the other hand, are swimming against the tide.
Toronto was ranked 12th in pace in November, with 102.2 possessions per game, a higher average than their current figure.
This trend was already noticeable last season, as the Raptors finished 13th in regular-season pace with 98.1 possessions per 48 minutes. Not to rub salt in the old playoff wound, but both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Warriors averaged a higher pace than Toronto in 2017-18.
Coach Nick Nurse might need to revisit this issue sooner rather than later, before the playoffs – and the ghost of playoffs past – start knocking on his door.
