The Raptors owned the season series with the Miami Heat this season, 3-1. But just a day removed from a nail-biting seven-game series win against the Pacers, it’s safe to say that doesn’t mean a thing.
After surviving Indiana, the Raptors tip-off their second round series on Tuesday night at home versus Miami, another team with a singular superstar who get steady contribution from arguably the deepest roster in the East and boast one of the toughest defenses in the NBA.
Here are some things to watch out for during the Raptors-Pacers Eastern semi-final series:
Ride or die?
It doesn’t take a scout to notice how important the supporting cast has been to the Raptors’ success. Clear down the stretch in Game 7, as it was during most of the Pacers series, it took significant and timely contributions from the likes of Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, and Norm Powell to advance to the second round.
They’ve also been efficient on offense, managing to play a big role with relatively little shot distribution.
Joseph is shooting an absurd 58% from the floor (55.6% 3PT) while attempting just 6.6 shots per game and Patterson, who started the last two games, is shooting 45% (41% 3PT) on a similar seven shots per game.
Powell has also managed to be effective at a low volume, averaging less than six shots per game in the first round—and that includes his improbable 11-shot performance in the Raptors’ Game 5 comeback win.
Sure, it’s true that the trio’s high efficiencies are directly related to their lower shot distribution. But after seeing Dwane Casey look to those three more in Game 7 than any other in the series—and with measurable success— will he continue to try to get them more looks against the Heat? Or use this opportunity to reset and help re-establish the Raptors’ regular season stars.
The offense still revolves around finding scoring opportunities for DeRozan and Lowry, and that’s not likely to change (you know, ‘Ride or Die’, and whatnot) but facing a deep Miami team with many moving parts, Dwane Casey’s utilization of his supporting cast is worth keeping an eye on.
Unity:
All five Miami starters (the Heat’s lineup remain unchanged throughout the first round) are averaging double-digits in scoring so far in the playoffs.
Player who’s better than you think:
Justise Winslow. Many recall his performance in Duke’s championship win last year, followed by him inexplicably falling to Miami at no. 10 in the draft. He then spent the regular season reminding us why, when given the choice, you shouldn’t pass on a guy with size, speed, brains, who can play multiple positions, guard star players, and is ready to play 30 minutes a night as a 20 year-old rookie. Remember Myles Turner? Now prepare to meet his two-way wing equivalent.
While we’re here, another rookie, Josh Richardson, has come out of nowhere (read: the second round) to play a major role for the Heat off the bench. A threat beyond the arc and off the dribble, Richardson, like Winslow, has become a go-to-reserve for coach Eric Spoelstra.
Hey, I remember him
Amare Stoudemire. He plays a bit for this team. Sometimes he still dunks, but it’s never quite the same.
Key matchup #1
Backcourt v. Backcourt. Both of these teams rely heavily on offense generate by their starting backcourts. In the Raptors, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry take 70% of the shots and initiate virtually every play when they’re on the floor. Generally, as those two go so do the Raptors, yet both have struggled and their team still advanced. Regardless, it’s hard to imagine Toronto withstanding another disappointing series from the pair.
For Miami, Dwyane Wade is a future Hall of Famer who knows from experience how to win a championship both as an alpha dog and backup singer. He flows back and forth between the two on this edition of the Heat. The team’s leader and still it’s best player, Wade has done a great job of taking over when he needs to and helping to establish his teammates when its needed. He’s averaging 19 points per game, tied with Luol Deng for the team lead, while also leading the team with 5 assists per.
His backcourt mate, Goran Dragic, might the most interesting player in the series. Dragic has looked largely out of placed and wholly underutilized since being acquired from Phoenix at last season’s trade deadline. Dragic is only a couple of years removed from being considered a legitimate NBA all-star caliber player, and will show plenty of flashes of that ability against the Raptors.
One thing to watch for will be the matchup between Dragic and Lowry, former teammates on the Houston Rockets. Lowry was a starter in Houston before losing his job to the up-and-coming Dragic, prompting the Rockets to ship Lowry to Toronto.
No, not this guy:
Joe Johnson. He’s back. And this time he’s not playing games.
Except, of course, basketball (so I guess in this context he’s almost exclusively playing games). The point is Joe Johnson is back to give Raptor fans nightmares. Like a (much) quieter rendition of Paul Pierce last year, Johnson is a ghost of previous Raptors’ playoff losses. In 2013-14 the veteran guard/forward averaged 22 points as the Brooklyn Nets ousted Toronto in 7 games. The Heat liberated Johnson from Brooklyn late this season and he’s been an impactful part of Miami’s starting lineup since.
To be honest, the last 93 words were just an excuse to watch this again:
Key Matchup # 2
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Hassan Whiteside. The NBA is getting smaller, but you couldn’t tell Valanciunas that in Round 1, as he went up against a bona fide 7-footer in Ian Mahinmi and equally large Myles Turner. Things only get harder for the Raptors’ big man this time around, with 7’0 265-pound Hassan Whiteside up next. Valanciunas carried the Raptors for long stretches despite finding foul trouble against the Pacers and averaged more than 15 ppg against Miami this season. He was also a beast on the boards, averaging 11.9, good for 5th in the NBA.
At 6th is Whiteside, whose 11.4 rebounds per game is slightly down from the 11.8 he averaged during the regular season. Whiteside, a free agent at the end of the season poised for a max-money-type raise, is probably the best rim defender in the league, an advanced-stats darling who led the league with 3.69 blocks this year (nearly 1 and half more than anyone else).