Throughout the 2016-17 NBA season we’ll take a look back at the week that was and set up the week to come in Raptorland.
If you’re into the NBA hot stove, 2017 is off to a flying start.
While you were likely recovering from your post-New Year’s Eve hangover on Jan. 1, ESPN reported that the Atlanta Hawks are fielding trade offers for all-star forward Paul Millsap, a player who has peaked the Toronto Raptors’ interest in the past and one who, on paper, would look to be a very logical fit.
However, with Millsap turning 32 before the Feb. 23 trade deadline and the fact he’s likely to opt out of his current contract at season’s end, there’s certainly a lot of risk involved in acquiring him, despite the talent.
Here’s a closer look at the advantages and disadvantages of the Raptors swinging a deal for Millsap.
Why the Raptors should acquire him
As was said off the top, Millsap really does look like that missing link for the Raptors at power forward that could possibly put them over the top to finally beat the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Raptors’ No. 1 issue has been the same ever since Amir Johnson left in the summer of 2015: they don’t have a proper starting four. Patrick Patterson – more on his injury in a bit – is locked in as coach Dwane Casey’s sixth man and he’s flourished in the role, rookie Pascal Siakam is nice but, as his minutes indicate, he’s not a real starter and Jared Sullinger – who will likely start when he returns – does more to inspire confidence as a bench big rather than a starter.
Millsap would automatically fill this hole and give the Raptors a legitimate starting power forward who, by the way, also happens to be really good. A three-time all-star, Millsap this season is averaging 17.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game on 44.4 per cent shooting. The numbers, with the exception of field goal percentage, are consistent with those from the seasons of his all-star appearances.
Looking closer at what he does on offence, it’s a perfect fit for what the Raptors want to do because, similar to Patterson, he’s a stretch four but with much better playmaking skills, capable of thinking on the fly and making quick decisions in the pick-and-roll. Meaning, as the roll man, he won’t just look to take a shot the way Patterson will or just dive the basket like Jonas Valanciunas, he’s actually the kind of player who can give you both of those and maybe look to find the open man even if that’s not part of how the set is run.
So not only would his shooting help the Raptors, overall basketball IQ and passing would be a boon to a team that, despite being the best offence in the league, doesn’t exactly rack up the assist numbers.
And then on the other side of the ball, Millsap would help tremendously as he’d look like the ideal defensive partner to start games with Valanciunas. Blessed with quick feet and the strength required to go toe-to-toe with centres, Millsap is able to hedge out on pick-and-roll coverages and still recover back in time to help. Teams love putting Valanciunas into these kinds of situations with more mobile bigs to try to get the big Lithuanian into foul trouble, but with a guy like Millsap some of that is relieved as he just covers up a lot of Valanciunas’ weaknesses on defence.
Better yet, you pair Millsap with Patterson in a smaller lineup and suddenly the Raptors are a devilishly mobile, switch-everything terror on defence that would also be able to get out in transition extremely quickly from the turnovers this kind of lineup would likely create.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, if the Raptors are looking at acquiring Millsap, it should be done via trade as that way they’d get his Bird Rights with him.
Like Millsap, Kyle Lowry’s probably opting out of his deal this summer, so the Raptors are likely going to pay max money to keep him. Additionally, Patterson is also a free agent this summer and they’re probably going to move to re-sign him as well. This, in all likelihood, will put Toronto over the cap. Therefore, the Raptors need to trade for Millsap so they can look to lock him up using his Bird Rights. Otherwise, he’ll only be a rental.
In summary, Millsap basically checks off all the boxes required of a modern NBA power forward. He can rebound, he has post moves, he can shoot the three, he’s a good passer, he’s excellent in pick-and-roll, he has quick feet so he can defend pick-and-roll, he’s strong so he can defend the block and he’s a good teammate to boot. What’s there not to like?
Why the Raptors shouldn’t acquire him
For all the good Millsap would bring the Raptors, the price of acquisition would be very steep.
Other than the obvious of Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors’ greatest strength is their depth. Toronto possesses the best bench in the NBA with a net rating of 13.0, buoyed by its league-best offensive rating 115.6 points per 100 possessions. A trade for Millsap would obviously involve gutting some key rotation pieces such as Terrence Ross, Cory Joseph, Norman Powell or Patterson – should he be healthy enough.
Is Millsap really worth breaking up a dominant bench unit for? Particularly when Lowry and the four reserves still remain one of the best five-man units in all of basketball?
It’s a question worth pondering, especially because, while acquiring Millsap would also mean getting his Bird Rights, there’s still the small problem of convincing him to re-sign in the off-season in the first place. Unless the deal comes with knowledge that he’ll re-up with the Raptors, making a move for Millsap might be too great a risk.
There’s also the issue that the Raptors won’t be the only ones vying for Millsap’s services. Other teams, such as the Boston Celtics and their Brooklyn Nets pick, could make a better initial offer to the Hawks than the Raptors could, something that would force Toronto’s hand to make a higher-than-it-would-like bid or back out.
Lastly, the timing of this rumour coupled with Patterson’s injury is also very curious. The Raptors have been tied to Millsap for a good while now and with the status of Patterson’s knee still being unknown it’s possible Atlanta is looking for Toronto to make something of a reactionary panic move to shore up a hole.
It’s not exciting, but it would be more prudent for the Raptors to continue to monitor Patterson’s status and see how healthy he is before deciding to take the plunge on a Millsap move. The fact that Patterson isn’t actually considered out is an encouraging sign for the team so it may not be as bad as it initially seemed, making Millsap more of a really nice piece to have, but not exactly an essential one seeing as the Raptors do still remain the second best team in the Eastern Conference.
For all the good Millsap might be able to bring, the risk of going in on him, making an offer and then trying to lock him up may just not be worth it in the end.
