WASHINGTON, DC — Just about a year ago, the Washington Wizards returned from the road down two games to nil in a playoff series. It was the second round of the 2017 playoffs, and the Boston Celtics had dealt the Wizards a pair of dispiriting defeats on their home floor to wrest control of the series.
Turns out, Boston had not wrested control of the series. Washington was a completely different team at home, coming out like rodeo bulls in Game 3 and overwhelming the Celtics, outscoring them every quarter on its way to an easy 27-point victory.
It’s okay if you forgot about it. It was a long time ago. But does it surprise you even a little bit that Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey has not?
“They had Boston down, what, 37-19 the first quarter last year before they even knew it,” said Casey, who was close enough to the actual first-quarter margin of 39-17. “So, I expect that. We should expect it. And be ready for it.”
Not only did the Wizards dominate the Celtics in Game 3, they rode a massive 73-point second half to victory in Game 4, tying a series that eventually stretched to seven games. The Celtics thought they were cruising to the conference finals and suddenly found themselves in a slugfest.
And here we are today, with the Raptors coming into Washington having gotten the better of the Wizards over two games at Air Canada Centre. The circumstances are similar, at least on the surface.
And, who knows, maybe the Raptors will prove to be in a different class than the Wizards regardless of the game’s location, and waltz to an easy series victory. Just because something happened once before doesn’t mean it will happen again. But, hey, it happened once before.
“We’ve got to be prepared. We’ve got to play this game like it’s 0-0,” Casey said. “If we come out any other way, you’ll know it. They’re a very talented team. Very athletic. Their speed and quickness is an issue. We’ve got to come out ready for them to be in attack mode.”
And there does seem to be something about the Wizards at home. Despite bowing out to the Celtics in the second round, Washington didn’t lose on it home court in the 2017 playoffs, winning all six games played at Capital One Arena. And since the 2014-15 season, when Washington swept Toronto in the first round, the Wizards are 9-2 in home playoff games.
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Of course, the counterpoint to that is how well the Raptors have played on the road. Toronto went 25-16 away from home this season, with a virtually identical offensive rating (111 at home; 110.9 on the road).
“I think maturity is some of it. Consistency. Same message, same approach each night,” Casey said of how his team found success in unwelcoming environments. “Even though sometimes it’s boring — you don’t hear something catastrophic or new or whatever. But that’s the approach you’ve got to have. A consistent approach. I think that helped us.”
But while offence is rarely an issue for the Raptors, the team’s defensive numbers did suffer when travelling. Toronto’s defensive rating dropped from 100.6 at home to 106.1 on the road this season. A lot of that is due to opponents finding more success in hustle and effort areas like offensive rebounding, points off turnovers, second-chance points, and fastbreak points.
| PTS | EFG% | OREB% | PTS OFF TUROVERS | 2ND CHANCE PTS | FASTBREAK PTS | PTS IN PAINT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 101.7 | 49% | 21.50% | 14.3 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 44.2 |
| Road | 106 | 51.20% | 23.20% | 15.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 46.4 |
And, hey look at that, the Wizards were better in nearly all those categories — with the exception of fastbreak points — when playing at home rather than on the road this season.
| PTS | EFG% | OREB% | PTS OFF TUROVERS | 2ND CHANCE PTS | FASTBREAK PTS | PTS IN PAINT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 108.5 | 53.90% | 24.50% | 17.8 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 43.5 |
| Road | 104.7 | 51.10% | 22.20% | 16.4 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 41.1 |
Washington’s net rating also swung substantially (-2.3 on the road, 3.7 at home) depending on venue, thanks in large part to the big 108.8 offensive rating Washington put up at home. If history holds true, the Raptors will face a significant pushback Friday night.
“We’ve got to expect it,” said DeMar DeRozan “We did what we were supposed to do, win at home. The hard part comes now, being able to go on the road, meet their aggressiveness, attention to detail, the crowd behind them. Everything’s going to be against us tonight and we have to treat it like that.”
Whether or not the Raptors will have point guard Fred VanVleet remains to be seen. He looked like anything but himself in a brief Game 2 appearance as he continues to recover from a right shoulder injury. Casey, naturally, wasn’t tipping his hand as to VanVleet’s availability when asked Friday morning, saying merely, “We’ll see.”
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Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be shocking to see some different looks from the Wizards in this game — perhaps even in the starting lineup — as head coach Scott Brooks searches for a way to get his struggling team going. Washington’s smaller lineups have found success in the first two games of the series, as Dave Zarum noted yesterday. It only seems natural that the Wizards would do more of that in Game 3.
Of course, if we’re aware of that, the Raptors are, too. Friday morning, Casey wasn’t interested in revealing how he might counter any Washington adjustments. There’s nothing to be gained from publicizing your game plan. But he was very much interested in reasserting how important it is for his team to be ready for a significant pushback from the Wizards Friday night on their home floor.
“Hopefully we understand that we better have it tonight. Because this team will have it,” he said. “It’s the playoffs. It’s a different animal. Guys do extraordinary things in these situations. We’ve got to expect that. Hostile crowd. Full house here. We’ve got to have a together mentality, us-against-the-world mentality tonight.”
