The Toronto Raptors tip off their 2018 NBA playoff run versus the Washington Wizards on Saturday.
Despite being the top seed in the East, finishing the season with the NBA’s second-best record at 59-23, the Raptors are only marginal favourites against the eight-seeded Wizards.
Which seems odd given how well the Raptors performed this season.
The Raptors are a different team this year than any in the DeMar DeRozan-Kyle Lowry era, which has now featured five straight post-season appearances. They play a different, modernized style, maximize their depth like never before, and with the second-youngest roster of any playoff team bring a tenacious, energetic approach to the court that has helped them win games by an average of 7.8 points this season — second behind only the Houston Rockets.
The Raptors are good, but enter the 2018 post-season having to exorcise playoff demons. During the run of the DeRozan-Lowry era, Toronto has yet to win the first game of a series, and despite taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to six games in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals, have had the ugly four-game sweep at the hands of LeBron James and the Cavs in 2017 lingering over their heads like a dark cloud.
And then there’s the playoff history with Washington. Despite having home-court advantage, The Raps were infamously swept by the Wizards in the opening round in 2015. Washington’s core of John Wall, Brad Beal, Otto Porter, and Marcin Gortat remains from that ’15 team, and the team boasts talent off the bench as well.
But the Wizards are in the midst of a free-fall. They lost their final game of the regular season to the Orlando Magic (total wins this season: 25) and have won just three of their last 12 games. There are reports of infighting among Wizards players, and the animosity between Wall and teammates like Beal and Gortat have risen to the surface.
Let’s take a closer look at the series:
Projected Starters
Toronto:
Kyle Lowry
DeMar DeRozan
OG Anunoby
Serge Ibaka
Jonas Valanciunas
Washington:
John Wall
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter
Markieff Morris
Marcin Gortat
Season Series
The Raptors and Wizards split their season series 2-2. Washington was one of just two Eastern Conference teams to hold the Raps to an average of less than 10 three-pointers made when they played. The Raptors also averaged their second-fewest rebounds, third-fewest blocks and fifth-fewest steals against the Wizards compared to any other team they faced this season — factors that likely contribute to Toronto’s relatively low odds to win the series (at least by standards of most one-versus-eight matchups).
Matchups
Lowry-DeRozan vs. Wall-Beal: The two best starting backcourts in the East are squaring off, and how those four players perform will go a long way towards determining the series for either club.
Wall played only 41 games this season and underwent knee surgery earlier this year. He posted his lowest scoring total in four years and averaged fewer assists this season than any in his last five. But he remains a difficult guard to contain and exploits defenders off the dribble, forcing defences to adjust their rotations when he gets into the lane. Beal’s presence only makes it harder to focus on Wall. The sixth-year shooting guard is Washington’s leading scorer at just over 22 points per game, and is a dual-threat from beyond the arc and attacking off the dribble as well. With Wall sidelined for half the season, Beal got more attention than ever and posted the lowest three-point percentage of his career. But he has been stellar against the Raptors, averaging 28.8 points in four games versus Toronto this season — his highest-scoring mark against any team in the East all season.
As for the Raptors, their all-star backcourt will be heavily scrutinized given their yo-yo act in previous playoffs. But both Lowry and DeRozan should be well-positioned for their best — and, more importantly, most consistent — post-season performance.
Lowry has benefited from rest this season, seeing his minutes drop by an average of five per game thanks to the strong play of backups Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet. It should put him in a nice position to take on a heavier workload. Fewer players saw their production alter more than Lowry, who accepted having the ball in his hands far less in the Raptors’ new pass-heavy style, and the team has been better as a result.
As for DeRozan, he’s continued to add to his game and apart from leading the Raptors in scoring (23 points per game) also averaged over five assists for the first time in his career. He remains the Raps’ go-to-guy down the stretch and holds the key to the Raptors’ chances this post-season.
Valanciunas vs. Gortat We’re in store for a good ol’ fashioned slugfest under the rim between two centres who don’t shy away from contact.
Valanciunas has enjoyed his best season as a Raptor, and while he still doesn’t close out many games has been effective establishing himself early in contests. While he’s converted his chances against the Wizards — 68 per cent shooting this season, second only to Milwaukee in terms of East opponents — the Wiz have been able to limit him on the glass, where he’s averaged just five boards versus Washington.
Gortat has seen his production fall this season, but man was he a problem for Valanciunas and the Raps the last time these two teams met in the playoffs. Gortat averaged over 20 points, 10 rebounds, and nearly three blocks per game against Toronto in Games 2 through 4 that year.
Expect to see heavy doses of Jakob Poeltl, too, who has the size to matchup with Gortat and the mobility to out-maneuver and out-run him.
X-Factor
Raptors: The collective bench unit, as they have all season, could make the difference for the Raptors. Pascal Siakam has excelled off the bench for the Wizards this season, while C.J. Miles dropped 20 on 6-of-9 shooting, including a clutch three late in the game to ice the win for Toronto the last time these teams played. VanVleet, the engine of the Raptors second-unit, and a guard who sees crunch-time minutes along with Toronto’s starters, hurt his shoulder in the regular-season finale on Wednesday, but he appears to be ready to go for Game 1. The Raptors will need a big series from him and the rest of their “Bench Mob”.
Wizards: Washington doesn’t have the depth Toronto does, but it still has difference-makers coming off the bench. Two names that stand out are small forward Kelly Oubre Jr. and point guard Tomas Satoransky. Oubre has cooled off since his hot start to the season, in which he looked like a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but is still a capable deep shooting threat and an active wing defender. Satoransky, the 26-year-old second-year player, had some bright spots when filling in for an injured Wall, averaging nearly five assists since January. At six-foot-seven, he is a tough matchup for most point guards.
Schedule
Game 1 tips off Saturday at 5 p.m. ET live on Sportsnet ONE, with Game 2 set for Tuesday night in Toronto. Sportsnet will also air Game 4, as well as Games 6 and 7 if they’re necessary. Here is the full schedule:
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