Ask anyone to predict the outcome for the second-round playoff series between the Raptors and the Heat, you’re almost sure to hear a caveat about the performance of Toronto’s two All-Stars.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan struggled mightily from the floor against the Pacers, both shooting below 32 percent overall and below 19 percent on threes. As a result, both ranked in the bottom-five in effective field-goal percentage, a shooting percentage that accounts for the added value of 3-point shots, among the 63 players who took at least 50 attempts.
“I think George Hill and Paul George did a remarkable job on our two All-Stars,” general manager Masai Ujiri told Sportsnet on Monday “For [Lowry and DeRozan] to get through this without playing their best basketball, I think there’s good stuff to come… They’re just too good for it to go on forever.”
The Raptors simply can’t beat the Heat with their two-headed attack sputtering to such a degree. The Heat are hardly a cakewalk, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency to Indiana’s third, but they may prove a better matchup for Lowry and DeRozan.
Lowry draws Dragic
Lowry’s matchup is a fun one both in terms of on-court competition and path to this point – Lowry was teammates with Heat point guard Goran Dragic in Houston, and the two still have a relationship.
Dragic pushes the tempo well in the open court but doesn’t possess the foot speed of Hill, one of the better defensive point guards in the league. Lowry should be able to break Dragic down off the dribble, and while there’s no easy answer for the rim protection of Hassan Whiteside, Lowry’s struggles in round one already have him in the mode of looking for teammates on dump-offs or on the lob.
The big question is what Lowry’s jump shot looks like. His 3-point stroke has been wayward since he had his elbow drained in late March, and while he says the Pacers sped him up and forced him into more difficult off-dribble attempts, he was 3-of-21 on catch-and-shoot threes and 7-of-31 on threes classified as open or wide open by NBA.com.
“I got a brand new series,” Lowry said. “I got a whole new life. It’s 0-0 on that stat sheet now.”
If Lowry’s shot is dropping, Dragic will have to fight over tough screens to stay close, or the Heat will have to sacrifice a major strength and ask Whiteside to come up higher in the pick-and-roll, a win for Toronto.
DeRozan to see five different looks
DeRozan, meanwhile, may have breather a sigh of relief on Sunday night when the realization set in that he no longer had to deal with George, an obscenely long, athletic, and talented defender. Any exuberance would have dissipated quickly, though, when the reality set in that DeRozan’s “upgrading” to Luol Deng, Justise Winslow, and company.
To be clear, none of the Heat defenders are on George’s level individually, but there will also be no rest periods. If Deng’s off the floor, Winslow will be on it, and the Heat will use as many as five different defenders (Josh Richardson, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade) as the Heat try to keep him from getting in a rhythm.
“It’s gonna be a lot different from Indiana,” DeRozan said. “The four times we’ve played them, it’s been different every time around. So I can’t even judge the type of defense I’m going to see.”
DeRozan had more success against Miami than perhaps any other opponent this season, averaging 29.3 points and 4.5 assists in four games. He did so efficiently, too, with a 58.7 true-shooting percentage on a difficult 35.6-percent usage rate.
Don’t let that confuse matters – Deng and Winslow are good defenders, the Heat were rarely at full strength against Toronto (Winslow was the only player to appear in all four meetings), and the Heat have the option to play DeRozan straight, dare him to hit from mid-range, or switch actions that don’t involve a center. That’s the benefit of having a five-wing rotation with size at every spot. It’s not George, but it’s not going to be easy, either.
And if both players get going?
If the Raptors are getting regular production from both Lowry and DeRozan, that should have a trickle-down effect through the offense.
“The better Kyle plays, the better I play,” DeRozan said. “It’s as simple as that. If Kyle’s making shots, it will be a lot easier on me.”
Even if they struggle, the Heat won’t put the focus anywhere else, and so the Raptors’ role players will need to be effective once again. Head coach Dwane Casey mentioned the importance of spacing with the Heat sealing off the paint so well, and shooters like Patrick Patterson, DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, and even Norman Powell will need to be hit reliably. And that’s not to speak of Jonas Valanciunas, who might wind up proving to be the key to solving Whiteside’s rim-protecting.
“Just being aggressive, attacking the rim, understanding that they’ve got a great shot-blocker, and try to use that against them,” DeRozan said. “By getting in, drawing in their players, kicking it out, getting JV a lot of easy buckets. That opens up a lot of things for me.”