The Toronto Raptors took care of business in the unofficial first half of the season, building a three-and-a-half-game lead in the Atlantic Division and proving that they are a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference. Now that they have shown they can play, though, there is some cause for concern as they gear up for the home stretch of the season.
Head coach Dwane Casey has leaned heavily on Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas this year (particularly since the Rudy Gay trade), and both sophomores are on pace to blow their rookie minutes totals out of the water. Fatigue brought on by the grind of the season is a concern for every team in the league, of course. But Ross has already exceeded his entire 2012-13 total by 121 minutes and Valanciunas is just 14 minutes shy of his.
With 29 games remaining in the regular season, both youngsters are looking like perfect candidates to hit the wall. And if they do, it could make the difference between home-court advantage and a first-round exit.
Valanciunas is no stranger to the rookie wall. He hit it pretty hard last year before suffering a hand injury that kept him out for six weeks. He was excellent down the stretch (shooting 58.2 percent from the floor and averaging 9.9 points and 6.6 boards per over his final 34 games), but only after the injury afforded him some much-needed rest—a fact that tends to be overlooked when evaluating the Lithuanian’s rookie campaign
In year two, he has played more minutes against stiffer competition. While he had a surprisingly impressive stretch heading into the all-star break, Valanciunas did show signs of slowing down in his last Wednesday’s game against Atlanta in which he shot just 1-of-9 from the floor. You can’t read too much into a single off night, but Tuesday’s game against the Wizards did see the big man limited to 18 minutes of action, down from his season average of 27.7.
Ross has also shouldered a much heavier workload in his second season as he’s transitioned from a fringe rotation player to a starter and the team’s primary perimeter defender.
Initially, the uptick in minutes was accompanied by a jump in both efficiency and production. From Dec. 8 to Jan. 1, Ross shot 45.6 percent from the floor and 46.3 percent from three and averaged 13.8 points per game, more than double his first-year average. But those numbers have plummeted of late. In seven games in February, Ross is shooting just 36.7 percent from the floor and 34.4 percent from three-point range and his scoring average has dropped to 8.3 points per.
This could all be a case of Ross simply regressing back to the mean, but it could also be the effects of playing heavy minutes in a major role. Or a bit of both.
Ross was also limited to 18 minutes of action on Tuesday.
So, how long can Toronto’s sophomore duo maintain a steady level of play? And what happens if and when they hit the wall?
The Raptors acquired depth in the Rudy Gay trade but with Thursday’s trade deadline creeping ever closer, they could still use a piece or two. GM Masai Ujiri, who reportedly has his hands full dealing with a potential point guard situation ahead of the deadline, should also be taking a hard look at any wings or bigs capable of easing the pressure on Ross and Valanciunas.
Beyond providing an insurance policy for his sophomores, that extra depth would also come in handy when the Raptors are eventually dealt the inevitable injury blow.
Thus far, Toronto has been fortunate enough to suffer remarkably few injuries to key players. Aside from Amir Johnson and DeMar DeRozan missing a handful of games—the majority of which were precautionary—the team has been all-but injury free.
If that luck runs out—highly likely over a full 82, especially with DeRozan playing the fifth-most minutes in the Association—the Raptors need to be prepared. The only way to do that, other than rest (something Casey exercised a bit on Tuesday) would be the addition of another depth player… or two.
Depth was the key to the Raptors’ success in the first half of the season. If Toronto is going to hold up down the stretch of the season, there is no doubt that it will continue to be the key.