It’s hard to imagine that we could be less than 12 hours away from the San Antonio Spurs getting ousted in the second round of the NBA playoffs.
After all, the Spurs didn’t lose consecutive games until April 8 yet are now facing a potential third loss in a row, a fate perhaps even more unthinkable than the team failing to reach the conference Finals despite their 67-15 regular-season record.
But here we are.
Fresh off of dueling MVP-type performances from their dual superstars—Kevin Durant’s 41 points helped win Game 4 while Russell Westbrook’s 35/9/11 game powered his team to a win in Game 5—the Oklahoma City Thunder own a 3–2 series lead vs. San Antonio, with a chance to finish the Spurs off in tonight’s Game 6, arguably the most anticipated game of the playoffs thus far.
(While I’m still expecting a seventh game in this series, it’s worth noting that most odds-makers have overwhelmingly favoured the Thunder to finish off the Spurs tonight.)
Regardless of tonight’s results, Thunder-Spurs Game 6 holds a hefty bit of NBA fate in its hands, as a Thunder win—or loss—will have massive reverberations this off-season and beyond, and could alter the shape of the league for years to come.
Let’s take a closer look at the different scenarios and what could be at stake tonight:
If the Thunder win
Scenario 1: A Thunder-Warriors conference final would make for a very tough series for the defending champs. The Warriors would (and should) be heavy favourites, but the Durant/Westbrook combo obviously gives the Thunder two chances to win on any given night—regardless of the opponent—if either of those two get going.
Still, let’s say the Thunder lose in six or seven games, then it’s most likely that Durant, the top free agent this summer, re-signs for one more season after realizing this Thunder team might truly be his best chance at winning a title. And the never-ending cycle of “Does [Insert Team X] have a shot at Durant in free agency?” goes on for another year.
Scenario 2: The Thunder empty their tank getting past San Antonio and are subsequently blown out by GSW. If it’s bad enough—for instance, a sweep—Durant opts to enter free agency and try to return to the Finals elsewhere.
Nearly half the league will be able to create the cap room to sign him, but only a handful of big-market teams—the Celtics, Lakers, Mavericks and Heat, to name four—have a realistic shot at landing Durant. Each of them would instantly become a championship-calibre contender and shake up the power structure in their conferences.
Meanwhile, the Thunder officially hand the keys over to Westbrook and use some of their newfound cap room to add supporting pieces around him—like Nic Batum, Ryan Anderson, or even Bradley Beal. They’d be nowhere near as dynamic, but the Thunder would remain competitive as the “Who’s the alpha dog here?” conundrum dies in OKC.
Scenario 3: The Spurs and newly crowned Executive of the Year GM R.C. Buford see the writing on the wall: Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and most certainly Tim Duncan are shells of their former self. Parker can still contribute; Ginobili can be a useful role player like in his earliest years in the league. Duncan retires. Meanwhile the Spurs recognize that they are now a two-player team without the same kind of depth they’ve boasted over the last decade and try to make another big splash in free agency to add to the Kawhi Leonard-LaMarcus Aldridge nucleus. Al Horford and Mike Conley are nice options, as are top-shelf role players like Festus Ezeli. Hell, I hear Kevin Durant is available and willing to sign for less-than-market value for the opportunity to win.
Scenario 4: The Thunder keep rolling and advance to the NBA Finals. A realistic scenario (you know, in the same way that reality TV is real) for reasons mentioned above, plus the fact that Portland made the Warriors look (at times) human. Opens up the window for Durant & Co. to win their first title, or come close and re-tool in the off-season (anyone want to trade for Serge Ibaka?) and bring the gang back for another shot.
If the Spurs win
Scenario 5: With the series going seven games, the Spurs regain the upper hand and ride home-court advantage (40-1 in San Antonio in the regular season, though admittedly that didn’t seem to deter OKC in Game 4) to a Game 7 win. That means we get the West final we all wanted to see as the league’s two best teams go head-to-head. It also means we get to see Leonard potentially take yet another step forward in his bid to officially become the NBA’s best two-way player. After back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year trophies and an impressive shooting improvement this season, arguably no player has a higher ceiling right now.
Meanwhile, after missing out on two straight chances to advance, a frustrated Durant flees OKC in search of greener pastures and a team where he doesn’t have to share alpha dog status with another player. It could lead him back to the Finals in a different uniform, or he may realize how rare it is to join forces with another talent of Westbrook’s level. But for better or worse, you don’t know until you find out…
Scenario 6: The Thunder manage to pull off the upset on the road, in which case see the first three scenarios above. Except maybe not number three—a Game 7 loss, particularly one that comes down to the wire, won’t likely cause quite as much panic for the Spurs, though it would still be an abject failure given their regular-season dominance and high expectations.
Meanwhile, we’re treated to a shootout every other night as Durant and Westbrook continue to take turns trying to take over a game and go shot-for-shot with Steph Curry and the greatest show in basketball.
So there you have it. On top of what should be a wildly-competitive game with everything you can want out of a live sporting event, tonight could be the catalyst for both the shifting course of a living dynasty and the future home of a generational superstar. No big deal.
Thunder-Spurs Game 6 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on SportsnetOne.
