It’s time for Masai Ujiri to show his hand. To put his stamp on the Toronto Raptors. To make the team and the franchise his. To chart a direction that is of his choosing, representing his vision. One that he alone will be accountable for.
It seems strange to say, given that the Raptors president has been on the job for three seasons and made all kinds of important decisions about his club; from re-signing DeMar DeRozan to re-upping Dwane Casey to making Kyle Lowry the engine of the team.
Under his watch the Raptors have set all kinds of high-water marks on the floor and evolved into one of the most stable and progressive organizations off of it.
But there’s a fork in the road coming and Ujiri’s got to choose one path or the other.
Since the fateful moment in December of 2013 when New York Knicks owner James Dolan – yeah, him – nixed a deal that would have sent Lowry to New York and started Toronto’s scorched earth rebuild in earnest, Ujiri has been able to avoid the kinds of fateful moments that are hard to turn back from.
When to the surprise of almost everyone, the core he inherited from former boss Bryan Colangelo flipped from a lottery-bound loser to a playoff team and then a fringe contender, he was quick to recognize and wise enough to steer with the current, adding and augmenting; practising facility management rather than architecture.
In a business as hectic and noisy as the NBA, having the confidence to move incrementally rather than seismically deserves recognition and respect. Ujiri’s willingness to use time as an ally is perhaps his greatest strength.
And it’s worked out wonderfully. For all their struggles in the past six weeks the Raptors remain a top-four team in the Eastern Conference. They are a strong bet to make the playoffs for a franchise-record fourth straight season, and if they started today they would have home court in the first round.
For a franchise that has seen more darkness than light for much of its history, that is nothing to take for granted.
But there are also moments when choices must be made, and even choosing to do nothing can have long-lasting consequences.
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The Raptors were heading that way in any case. With Lowry heading into free agency this coming summer and likely in position to command a five-year deal worth nearly $200 million at age 31, big decisions are pending, the kind that aren’t easily walked back from.
But the events Sunday night have turned the heat up; there is no disguising that.
Blowing a 15-point lead in the final nine minutes against the Detroit Pistons was one thing. The loss was Toronto’s 13th in 23 games since Jan. 1st but more urgently its 10th in 14 games, with six of those coming against lottery-bound teams or teams playing sub-.500 basketball.
Afterwards Lowry and DeRozan each made comments that pointed at a lack of faith in head coach Dwane Casey and implied that personnel changes are required.
Lowry spoke after practice Monday and predictably tried to calm the waves, denying that he was pointing the finger at Casey, but that’s predictable. For his part, Casey acknowledged that he and Lowry have butted heads.
The point is when one star seems frustrated with the head coach and the other is making sounds about the need to add help at the trade deadline while the team is sliding, it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle.
Now Ujiri is faced with a choice, or perhaps a series of choices. One way or another a domino will be tipped as the NBA’s Feb. 23rd trade deadline looms.
This is a struggling team with a gaping hole at power forward and the pieces to make a deal – prospects, picks and young veterans on affordable contracts – and there is inventory out there.
Names? You can dream on Paul Millsap of the Atlanta Hawks depending on how badly someone wants overpay for the rental and then take on the risk of a max-type contract for a 32-year-old this summer. A more realistic target if the Raptors want to shop in the high-rent district is Serge Ibaka of the lottery-bound Orlando Magic, another pending free agent who fits the Raptors’ needs perfectly.
Ujiri has a prior relationship with 27-year-old from Congo, not to mention a good working relationship with Andy Miller, his agent, who is also Lowry’s agent. There are concerns that his decline may come a little sooner than his age suggests and his contract demands will likely start in the $100-million range and go up, but he’s a positional solution that matches up well age-wise with Lowry and DeRozan.
More awkward fits but players who have the advantage of being under contract past this season include Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler of the Denver Nuggets. In Utah, Derrick Favors has struggled to stay healthy and has seen his minutes dwindle with the emergence of Rudy Gobert. His talent, rebounding and toughness would be welcome, but he’s not the kind of spacer you’d like to compliment DeRozan.
The Brooklyn Nets‘ Trevor Booker, the Phoenix Suns‘ P.J. Tucker, and the Chicago Bulls’ Taj Gibson are low-risk but perhaps low-return type options.
Regardless of what path the Ujiri chooses it’s hard to justify him choosing nothing at this stage. But the choices come with consequences. On paper, a deal for Ibaka would seem to help the Raptors now as they struggle to stay among the top-four in the East, and would seem to keep them competitive for the next few years, presuming Lowry is re-signed.
But the costs of being pretty good are steep. There is little chance pending free agent Patrick Patterson returns in that scenario; you’d have likely already traded Terrence Ross. All of a sudden Cory Joseph would look like a very expensive luxury as a back-up point guard earning $8 million.
Even then, Toronto could be a team with a payroll in the $175-million range – they’re at about $106 million this season – once luxury tax penalties are factored in.
That is the definition of the point of no return. Committing to Lowry and DeRozan at maximum deals and someone like Ibaka at something in that range means, effectively, that is the Raptors’ roster for the next three or four years.
Everything is leveraged to keep the Raptors in the top four of the East, within striking range if LeBron James gets old or Kyrie Irving gets hurt. You can make the case that with what the Raptors have accomplished with the Lowry-DeRozan core the past three seasons, they have earned every right to see how far they can push it with the right kind of help.
But it’s hard to look at that version of the Raptors as a championship team.
At which point you begin looking at the alternatives and they’re not necessarily pretty either. A more conservative approach in the trade market would be less costly but would it move the needle? Why bother giving up futures for stopgap measures?
But doing nothing for the third straight trade deadline would send its own message as Lowry gets set for free agency: that the Raptors aren’t serious about contending; that fields are greener elsewhere.
And without Lowry, where are the Raptors anyway? At that point you can venture into some previously unthinkable territory, such revisiting that teardown Ujiri was poised to undertake three years ago, only with the benefit of a roster full of players at near peak value. It’s out there, but if the goal is to win a title perhaps it gets discussed.
There’s no doubt that Ujiri and his right-hand man general manager Jeff Weltman have considered these questions, these scenarios and many more. No one is asleep at the switch here.
But the time has come to pull that sucker, and letting the moment pass is a decision in itself.
The only question remaining is what happens next.
