BY PETER HOUSTON – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
Looking back at the first round of the NHL playoffs, who or what was able to best predict the outcomes of all the series? Did the team with the better record come out on top more often than not? Were the teams that were hotter heading into the playoffs advance? Or was the best predictor some fancy stat called Fenwick Close % that was cooked up by mathematician bloggers sitting in their mom’s basement who have never watched a hockey game?
Well, let’s have a look. The team with home-ice advantage, or, debatably, “the better team”, won just 3 of the 8 series (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston). Hope you didn’t put all your money down on the favorites.
First off, what is Fenwick Close %? Fenwick is a stat that measures shot attempts (all goals, shots, missed shots – but not blocked shots like Corsi), which essentially translates into puck possession. The “Close” in “Fenwick Close %” means that the stat is adjusted for the score of the game, because shot attempt stats can get skewed if a team is throwing everything on net because they’re down by a few goals or a team is sitting back on a lead. So Fenwick Close % only measures shot attempt differential in close games, which means when the score is tied, or within 2 in the first or second period. Fenwick Close % – or in other words teams that control puck possession in close games – has a higher correlation to winning than any other stat.
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What about that old cliché “you don’t want to play the hot team going into the playoffs”? Well here’s who was hotter in the last 10 games of the season for each of the match ups.
Chicago L10: 7-2-1, Minnesota L10: 4-5-1
Anaheim L10: 5-4-1, Detroit L10: 5-2-3
Vancouver L10: 5-4-1, San Jose L10: 5-5
St. Louis L10: 7-3, Los Angeles L10: 5-3-2
Pittsburgh L10: 8-2, New York Islanders L10: 6-1-3
Montreal L10: 4-6, Ottawa L10: 6-4
Washington L10: 8-1-1, New York Rangers L10: 7-3
Boston L10: 3-5-2, Toronto L10: 5-4-1
So the team that was hotter in the last 10 games of the season won four out of the eight series. Again, nothing to write home about.
But what about the teams that had the better Fenwick Close % — the stat proven to be the best predictor of wins — in the regular season? Here’s how the teams matched up:
Chicago FC%: 55.8, Minnesota FC%: 48.68
Anaheim FC%: 48.21, Detroit FC%: 53.92
Vancouver FC%: 51.68, San Jose FC%: 52.41
St. Louis FC%: 53.91, Los Angeles FC%: 57.35
Pittsburgh FC%: 49.87, New York Islanders FC%: 52.01
Montreal FC%: 53.63, Ottawa FC%: 52.05
Washington FC%: 47.72, New York Rangers FC%: 53.88
Boston FC%: 54.35, Toronto FC%: 44.01
The team with the better regular season Fenwick Close % won six out of the eight series. Not too shabby.
The thing is, Fenwick Close %, or any advanced stat for that matter, isn’t supposed to be perfect. It’s just supposed to be better than the old clichés and narratives hockey fans have thrown at them all the time about how important a team’s playoff experience is, or being physical or how well a team is playing of late.
Stats like Fenwick Close % aren’t just made up out of thin air by math nerds with nothing better to do. They’re created by people who are actually probably bigger hockey fans than most who are looking for a better way of explaining the game. In this case, teams that can control possession of the puck in close games, a.k.a. direct more shot attempts on net than their opponents, are more likely to be the teams that win.
With that in mind, here are your match ups for Round 2. Place your bets accordingly:
Chicago FC%: 55.8 vs. Detroit FC%: 53.92
Los Angeles FC%: 57.35 vs. San Jose FC%: 52.41
Pittsburgh FC%: 49.87 vs. Ottawa FC%: 52.05
Boston FC%: 54.35 vs. New York Rangers FC%: 53.88