As Anthony Pettis and Johny Hendricks prepare to make the first defences of their UFC titles, an interesting question bubbles to the surface: Would it be better for these two new champions to successfully retain their belts or does a changing championship picture create more intrigue inside the Octagon?
Both fighters appear capable of embarking on lengthy reigns atop their respective divisions.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch UFC 181 prelims Saturday on Sportsnet 360 starting at 8 p.m. EST
Hendricks has been on an impressive roll for the last three years, posting a 7-1 record and climbing to the top of the division. Along the way, he’s battled former champ Georges St-Pierre to a tight decision, beat Robbie Lawler with a torn biceps muscle and picked up solid wins over Carlos Condit, Martin Kampmann and Jon Fitch, all three of whom were top-ranked competition at the time.
With his tremendous wrestling pedigree and obvious power, seeing “Bigg Rigg” score a second win over Lawler on Saturday to commence an extended stay at the helm of the 170-pound ranks is easy to envision.
The same goes for Pettis, although for different reasons.
While Hendricks is the blue-collar grinder with some serious pop in his hands, the lightweight champion might be the most creative, electric talent in the sport today. He embodies his “Showtime” nickname perfectly, delivering highlight-reel moments every time he steps into the cage and looking at times like there is no ceiling to his skill set.
And he has an uncanny ease in the most high pressure situations, as evidenced by the fact that he decided to pull out “The Showtime Kick” in the final minute of the final round of a close championship fight. That’s an “ice water in the veins” kind of move and one that allows you to see Pettis getting through the gritty Gilbert Melendez at UFC 181 and shining in the spotlight for years to come.
Looking at the history books, the two divisions couldn’t be more different.
Hendricks is only the fourth man to hold the undisputed UFC welterweight title in the last 13 years. Since November 2001, it’s either been Matt Hughes, Matt Serra or GSP lording over the division. Hughes and St-Pierre combined to hold the title for nearly 3,800 days with Serra having a brief 378 day run with the belt between the French-Canadian superstar’s first and second stint as champion. If you go all the way back to the inaugural welterweight champ, Pat Miletich, he too had a length stay on top, successfully defending the title four times over 900-plus day reign.
Meanwhile, Pettis is the sixth UFC lightweight champion and no one has ever topped the 1,000 days mark with the belt. BJ Penn holds the record for the longest championship reign (812 days) with the average run atop the division lasting 554 days. Despite having yet to defend the title, Pettis has already held the belt for 459 days (as of Thursday), leaving him less than one hundred days away from matching the duration of Benson Henderson’s time as champion.
More important in determining whether these two will become dominant titleholders or added to the list of champions that were unable to retain their belts long term is the depth and quality of competition that exists in their respective divisions.
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Looking at the welterweight ranks, Hendricks’ path to an extended stay at the top is relatively easy to see. He’s already bested Lawler and Condit, and Lawler has already turned aside two of the remaining Top 5 talents in the division, Rory MacDonald and Matt Brown. In turn, MacDonald has beaten Tyron Woodley, the fifth member of the group. While MMA math is seriously flawed, Hendricks presents a matchup problem for all three of Brown, MacDonald and Woodley and once you get outside of the Top 5, the pickings are slim.
Kelvin Gastelum stands as the only clear emerging prospect in the division right now. If he gets through his UFC 183 bout with Woodley with his perfect record intact, he’ll be the only other young gun in the division (besides MacDonald) that could potentially challenge the champion.
The path isn’t as clear for Pettis, however.
Like Hendricks, the lightweight champ has already posted wins over a pair of Top 5 contenders – Donald Cerrone and Benson Henderson – but unlike his welterweight counterpart, there are a number of dangerous, emerging threats waiting for their turn that haven’t already beaten each other up.
Melendez is a serious threat, having narrowly lost to Henderson by split decision in his organizational debut and lorded over the 155-pound ranks in Strikeforce prior to that. Just getting through “El Nino” is a tall order for Pettis, and should he manage that, there are a handful of intriguing challengers waiting for their turn in 2015.
Rafael dos Anjos could cement himself as next in line for a title shot with a win over Nate Diaz next week in Phoenix. The Brazilian has developed into a well-rounded threat over his time in the Octagon and recent wins over Henderson and Cerrone have him level with Pettis in terms of the top talent they’ve beaten.
One spot ahead of dos Anjos, but currently sidelined, is Khabib Nurmagomedov, he of the 22-0 record and penchant for wrestling the opposition to death. The awkwardly charismatic Dagestani standout dominated dos Anjos when they fought in April and has been taking to Twitter to make it clear that he’s the No. 1 contender, even if he’s injured.
Like Gastelum at welterweight, Myles Jury is undefeated and approaching the biggest test of his career – a UFC 182 showdown with Cerrone in January. Should he get through that, the San Diego-based fighter with a balanced attack will be on the radar as well.
It’s hard to say what would be best for the organization.
On one hand, having fighters play hot potato with the various titles makes it difficult to focus in on one guy to promote as the best in that respective division, but on the other hand, it means you’ve got three or four fighters that are on equal footing, creating multiple potential matchups.
At the same time, there seems to be an expiry date on how long fans will ride with a truly dominant champ – they seem to get one trip through the Top 5 before people are ready to see them move on and let someone else have their turn.
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Personally, I like dominant champions and extended reigns. I would rather have a collection of elite titleholders that rule their respective weight classes than a crop of even talents in every division that just pass the belt around every four to six months.
As for the champions stepping into the cage this weekend, Hendricks has the better shot at maintaining his title long term simply because the talent at the top of the division has already kind of sorted itself out.
Pettis could very well go on to enjoy a lengthy reign as well, but he’s going to have a more difficult time of things. Of course, he might also prove to be on the same level as Jon Jones and just outclass everyone that shares the cage with him going forward.
Or Lawler and Melendez could stop their reigns before they begin.
We’ll find out Saturday night.