Nairo Quintana is just days away from becoming the first Colombian to win the Giro d’Italia. The diminutive but ferocious Movistar rider recovered from illness partway through the race and capitalized on confusion during Tuesday’s stage to take over the race lead. Frustration lingers over the events that took place at the top of the Stelvio pass, but Quintana picked his time of attack perfectly.
Who will be able to do the same in the final three days of the race, and to what effect, will determine the podium of the General Classification, though Quintana looks nearly untouchable in the lead.
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The commotion that led to the Colombian taking over the race lead came from a lack of clarity. Rules, official decisions and communications to the peloton were all as poor as the conditions at the top of the Stelvio. Rain had turned to snow in the pass, and officials wanted to keep the riders safe from injury, and issued a statement via race radio that official motorcycles would slot in between the groups “to avoid attacks… on the descent,” and hold up a red flag.
“Pay attention to safety, do not pass the red flag,” teams were warned.
Nowhere is there evidence the race was neutralized, a situation where riders would soft pedal and hold position until conditions improved and officials declared the race back on.
Quintana claimed to follow other riders, including Frenchman Pierre Rolland of Europcar. Canadian Ryder Hesjedal was also in the mix, descending through the wet and snow as part of a small group. Much of the field, including most of the GC contenders, took the message to mean that racing was to stop. The peloton paused to don jackets and other cold weather gear, while watching the small group get away.
Quintana went on to finish well up on the field, with Hesjedal hanging on to creep into the top 10.
The race was shaken up, and many complained that those who escaped should be penalized. Officials denied that request, in part by pushing the radio operator very nearly under the bus.
The group chose their moment, and Quintana benefitted most. But should the peloton have stood atop the pass, getting dressed and hanging their hopes on an interpretation of a ruling they only heard second-hand through team radio is perhaps the real issue, given the ruling was at best unclear.
The dynamics of the Giro have turned in an instant. Quintana now needs to hold station, and manage his lead. Others need to find minutes to have a hope of taking away the pink jersey from the Colombian. The top 10 has been shaken, and a battle for the podium has developed between them.
The question of when and how to push is now paramount.
Friday’s time trial opens up some opportunity for those who are strong in the solo race against the clock. Unlike most time trials, which are held on generally flat courses, Friday’s stage is an uphill grind with grades of up to 14 percent and nearly 1,600m of elevation gain over the 26.8km length.
This could be music to Quintana’s ears, who struggles on flatter time trial layouts. Strong riders with good time trial skills such as Hesjedal and Rigoberto Uran of Omega Pharma–QuickStep will need to attack here to improve their standings.
Saturday’s stage once again snakes through mountainous terrain, finishing at Monte Zoncolan. This should be Quintana’s stage. Pierre Rolland and Fabio Aru will battle for positions, but unless Quintana has an off day, the leader should be safe.
All of which should set up an incredible finale.
The final stage of any Grand Tour is often a parade rather than a competition, but with so many positions up for grabs, Sunday’s racing could be very combative. Competitors will need to make early breaks to try to put time against their rivals. The run into Trieste is mostly downhill, benefitting bigger riders with lots of power. Uran, Hesjedal and Cadel Evans could all benefit on the final 172km run to the finish, provided they haven’t been totally blown apart in the mountains. The final podium is likely to be topped by Quintana, but with five riders all within a minute of the podium as of Thursday, those who best pick their moments will fill the second and third spots.