BY ISRAEL FEHR – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
The annual discourse surrounding the Most Valuable Player award in all sports is always entertaining, but never more so than when two clashing ideologies are involved, as this season’s American League MVP debate pits traditional numbers up against edgy advanced metrics. In one corner, representing sabermetrics, from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim… Mike Trout! In the other corner, representing standard statistics, from the Detroit Tigers… Miguel Cabrera!
These two baseball heavyweights face off in the ring to decide where the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) stands as a group with their analysis of statistics. Now if this title fight were to be decided by common sense and rational thinking – Mike Trout would be victorious in a first round knockout.
According to Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the comprehensive sabermetric statistic that takes into account offence, defence, and base running, there shouldn’t even be a discussion. Trout is valued at 9.2 WAR while Cabrera lags behind at 6.8 WAR. In other words Trout has been far more valuable than Cabrera this season. It’s not difficult to identify where Trout has created separation despite spending most of April in triple-A.
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At the plate it’s reasonable to give Cabrera a slight edge over Trout. On-Base percentage + Slugging percentage (OPS) demonstrates a player’s ability to get on base and hit for power. Cabrera’s OPS is 1.011 compared to Trout’s .944 OPS and he has hit 41 HR’s to Trout’s 27 HR’s.
It’s worth noting that Trout is a leadoff hitter and has a better OPS than Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, and Prince Fielder, players who hit in the middle of their lineups.
Trout’s ultimate advantages over Cabrera are defensively and on the base paths. Trout is an elite defensive centerfielder while Cabrera is a well below average third baseman. Run prevention is just as important as scoring runs, and Trout’s presence in the Angels outfield is a huge reason for their success; conversely having Cabrera play third base on a nightly basis is detrimental to the Tigers run prevention.
The same can be said for their individual impact on the base paths. Trout creates more run scoring opportunities for his team with his speed. He has 46 stolen bases and has been caught stealing just four times. That’s 13 more stolen bases than Miguel Cabrera has compiled over his 10 Major League seasons. Base running also takes into account taking an extra base on a hit ball or going first to third or first to home which Trout does exceptionally well.
Cabrera’s candidacy is based almost entirely on his pursuit of the Triple Crown. As of Friday he leads the AL in batting average (.333) and RBI (140), and is one home run behind league leader Josh Hamilton.
The Triple Crown has not been achieved in either league since Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat in 1967. It has served its place in baseball history but its value has been severely diminished with the arrival of superior data.
Many crucial elements are absent from the Triple Crown including OBP, extra base hits, defensive ability, and base running prowess. Also, one-third of the hallowed mark should not be used in any realistic baseball discussion as RBI are a useless statistic because they are a product of lineup configuration and opportunity.
Trout’s a lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year and his success in the Majors as a 20-year-old is unprecedented. Trout creates runs with his bat and his speed while preventing runs with his glove. Cabrera is the source of slightly more runs at the plate but negatively affects his team on defence and on the bases. To me, it seems obvious that one is clearly more valuable than the other.
Arguing the relevance of obsolete statistics and that the Triple Crown should guarantee an MVP award is equivalent to believing that the Earth is flat. It’s time to realize the Earth is round and embrace sabermetrics.
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