BY MICHAEL GARDNER – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
Fans and media calling for Brian Burke’s head are doing so based on the following theory. He fast tracked a rebuild by refusing to “do it properly” and use his own draft picks to restock the team. He has traded away picks in favour of a shortened rebuild and is now paying the price. A patient fan base was willing to accept the time it would take for a proper rebuild and Burke’s plan has clearly failed based on missing the playoffs again for a fourth season.
Wow. How can you not fire a guy who has done all of that? Simply put, it’s easy to keep supporting Burke if you simply look at the facts. First of all let’s acknowledge that Leaf fans claiming patience is a bit of a stretch. Reality is much different.
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1. Leaf fans are patient but Burke has failed.
If the equation is: four years = no playoffs = fired, where’s the patience in that equation?
It also implies that playoffs are the only measure. Where does ridding the team of bad contracts weight? Where does the stockpiling of assets fit? Where does the development work with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies rate? Where does the investment in scouting and development factor in? All of these are critical variables in rebuilding an organization over time.
Sure playoffs should count, but if one is truly “patient,” short term playoff qualification should be the lowest weighted variable of all.
If the only reason for ousting Burke is that he hasn’t made the playoffs, what kind of patience are you willing to afford the next guy? Two years? Please.
2. Burke should have done a true rebuild.
Said another way, the key to winning is to build through the draft. Presumably with high, first round selections.
Never has there been a more misunderstood and often quoted piece of drivel. It simply isn’t true. There are countless examples of teams that have drafted in high positions and drafted there often but haven’t achieved anything. Nashville, Columbus, Edmonton and the New York Islanders all come to mind.
Regardless, draft position is like the title of a book. It gets you interested but there are many chapters left to be discovered. A pick is simply a potential asset. He still needs to develop.
Teams like Detroit haven’t drafted high. As an example, in their 2008 Cup winning season they had traded away their first round pick four times in the eight drafts leading to that victory and their four remaining picks were taken outside of the Top 15.
But Detroit can develop players. There is an organization-wide commitment to on and off ice development of a young player. Under Burke, the Leafs have taken enormous steps forward as an organization when it comes to player development as evidenced by the age and achievement of the Toronto Marlies.
But Detroit’s success without high draft picks playing a role isn’t an exception. It is the norm.
Take Boston and Vancouver last year. Over the eight seasons leading up to the 2011 Stanley Cup Final, Boston had two top five draft picks in their stable of players. They traded one of those (Kessel) and kept the other (Seguin) and sat Seguin on the bench for two rounds of the postseason. The Bruins traded their first rounder once over those eight seasons and the majority of their drafts came in the mid to late rounds. Their opponent, Vancouver, had no homegrown top five picks on their roster and they traded their first round pick in one of those seasons.
The one exception to this is Pittsburgh who have had great success with their top five picks. They drafted five times in the top five before becoming champs.
The point in all of this is that “building through the draft” is no more of a sure thing than playing the slots at a casino. And getting a draft pick means nothing if you can’t develop them. Ask Columbus, Nashville, Edmonton, or New York about that.
While there is the Pittsburgh example, if you look back to Cup winners and finalists and examine what they did in the eight seasons leading to their success, you’ll note 128 total drafts those teams participated in. They drafted in the top five almost as often as they traded their first round pick entirely (26 times vs. 23 times). Meaning, team building is done in many ways and not one of those ways represents anything even remotely close to a blueprint for success.
3. Burke has traded away all our draft picks.
Even if you live by the “build through the draft” mantra, Burke has overseen three drafts since his arrival. There are a total of seven picks available in any draft. Quick math says that if Burke kept all of his picks, he would have drafted 21 times over his tenure. Based on the theory that calls for his head, one would think he has given away those picks.
He’s actually gone to the podium 23 times which means his hasn’t traded away all the picks, in fact, he has added a couple.
To say that the Leafs as an organization haven’t made any progress under Burke is simply wrong. I’m not saying that he shouldn’t be accountable. However, he was given six years to implement his vision which included more than just making the playoffs. He has delivered in terms of adding assets, focusing on improving our development system and making the NHL team younger.
If this blog angers you, use some of that patience you claim to have, step back and look at the big picture and then we can revisit this discussion once Burke’s contract is up for renewal.
Until then, stop meddling with unfounded theories on how to build a team and let Burke do his job.
Follow me on twitter @GardnerFanFuel
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