BY JACK RANDALL – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
Jonathan Quick wasn’t even on the playoff MVP odds lists at most sportsbooks six weeks ago. But an astonishing upset run through these 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs has the Los Angeles Kings netminder sitting as the prohibitive favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy the day before the series begins.
“Quick is the clear favourite on the Conn Smythe odds but, at such short odds, he’s not attracting many bets. Instead, it’s (Zach) Parise at 12-1 who seems to be attracting a lot of attention,” said Adam Burns, sportsbook manager at Bodog.
Quick is even money, ahead of the next shortest prices on New Jersey Devils goalie Martin Brodeur and Kings captain Dustin Brown, each at 4/1. This list was full of Vancouver Canucks and Pittsburgh Penguins when it first went up April 10, but neither of those teams made it past the first round in this unpredictable playoff.
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The other Dustin in Los Angeles – the much-maligned and much-revived Penner – is a 50/1 longshot, while NJ sniper Ilya Kovalchuk and resurgent LA blueliner Drew Doughty also make the list around 6/1 odds.
The last time Brodeur won a Stanley Cup, he was outdueled for the Smythe by his counterpart. That was in 2003 when J.S. Giguere led the seventh seeded Ducks within a game of the Cup.
As a low-seeded club, the odds seem to favour Quick, win or lose against the Devils. Two of the past three times a goalie has won the award, his team was ranked seventh (Giguere) and eighth (Cam Ward with the Hurricanes in 2006). Tim Thomas won it last year with the third seeded Bruins.
Betting favours a goalie winning the award at roughly 2/1 odds. Picking a position player is a +170 underdog position, which is unusual, because goalies have won the award only five times since Patrick Roy won it with the Habs back in 1993.
In fact, 10 teams had better Cup odds than either the Kings or Devils. And on the list of possible Stanley Cup final matchups, a Kings vs Devils final was 165/1 odds, a far cry from the 7/1 favourite position of a Penguins-Canucks final.
And while the Kings are favoured, more hockey odds series action (55% of the money) at Bodog has been on the Devils at +150. The consensus for Game 1 is a slight edge (52.5 per cent) to the Kings, according to OddsShark.com, which provides NHL odds to Sportsnet.ca.
Who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy?
Jonathan Quick (LA) 11/10 (+110)
Dustin Brown (LA) 4/1 (+400)
Martin Brodeur (NJ) 4/1 (+400)
Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ) 11/2 (+550)
Will a goaltender win the Conn Smythe Trophy?
Yes 10/21 (-210)
No 17/10 (+170)
Blog post provided by OddsShark.com
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