BY CRAIG AMOS – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
With UFC on Fox 3 set to go on Saturday at the IZOD Center in New Jersey, it’s time for my predictions
So without further delay, here is who I think will win at UFC on Fox 3.
Middleweight: Mike Massenzio (13-6-0) versus Karlos Vemola (9-2-0)
Massenzio has posted checkered results since joining the world’s largest fight promotion, amassing a 3-4 record since 2008.
Karlos Vemola is a heavyweight turned light heavyweight turned middleweight. He is a terrific wrestler and a powerful puncher.
Massenzio can win this fight by pulling off a submission, something he has done six times in his career. But if this one goes to the scorecards, chances are that it will be Vemola who has his hand raised.
The Czech wrestling specialist should be able to score points with cleaner striking than his American counterpart, and will be able to take Massenzio down at will.
If he doesn’t stop it with strikes, he should coast to a one-sided unanimous decision win.
The Prediction: Karlos Vemola defeats Mike Massenzio via TKO
Have your say: Do you have a great idea for a blog and want to write for Fan Fuel? Email us here. | Who’s hot, not for Blue Jays
Bantamweight: Roland Delorme (7-1-0) versus Nick Denis (11-2-0)
Delorme is a submission specialist who has posted a perfect finishing record across seven career wins.
His opponent, Nick Denis, boasts an even more impressive finishing record, going 11 for 11, including 10 knockouts.
Denis looked spectacular in his UFC debut, knocking out Joseph Sandoval in just 22 seconds. His gameplan for this fight will likely be to run his knockout total to 12, and he will look to strike early and often.
The key for Delorme in this fight will be to take Denis to the ground where the skill levels of the two combatants are more on par with one another.
For this Canadian on Canadian action, the smart money will be laid on “The Ninja of Love.”
Prediction: Nick Denis defeats Roland Delorme via KO
Featherweight: Dennis Bermudez (8-3-0) versus Pablo Garza (12-2-0)
Bermudez enters this fight coming off a loss to Diego Brandao during the finale of last season’s Ultimate Fighter. He nearly pulled off an upset, staggering and dropping Brandao, but rushed head first into a submission and was forced to tap out.
Garza possesses some nasty submissions, but is not immune to succumbing to those of his opponents. He is 2-2 in the UFC and has yet to be involved in anything that bears even a minor resemblance to a boring contest.
At a glance, this matchup seems to be bad news for Bermudez, who has been susceptible to the submission. But at the same time, the American looked to grow in leaps and bound during his time on the UFC’s feeder show.
His time on The Ultimate Fighter, which he spent training under Jason Miller, should help Bermudez reinvent himself and it all starts with Garza on Saturday night.
Prediction: Dennis Bermudez defeats Pablo Garza via TKO
Lightweight: Danny Castillo (13-4-0) versus John Cholish (8-1-0)
A WEC veteran, Danny Castillo has transitioned well into the UFC. Since joining the promotion’s lightweight roster he has posted a 3-1 record, with wins coming over Joe Stevenson, Shamar Bailey and Anthony Njokuani.
John Cholish has only one UFC bout to his name, but it is a win over Canadian Mitch Clarke. Cholish displayed good wrestling and solid standup against Clarke.
While both guys have looked good in the UFC, Castillo is the more accomplished fighter of the two. His takedowns and top control will likely be the difference in this fight.
Prediction: Danny Castillo defeats John Cholish via unanimous decision
Flyweight: Louis Gaudinot (5-2-0) versus John Lineker (19-5-0)
Gaudinot was Team Bisping’s first bantamweight pick during the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, but lost in the tournament’s first round. Gaudinot then failed to make amends for the poor performance when he lost to castmate Johnny Bedford during the show’s finale.
Lineker is a well-rounded fighter that likes to throw big punches. He will enter his bout with Gaudinot riding a 13 fight win streak.
Gaudinot receives a measure of hype because of his strength and athleticism, but this has not yet translated into success inside the Octagon.
In spite of the drop from bantamweight to flyweight, I expect Gaudinot’s underachieving to continue, and expect him to lose on Saturday night.
Prediction: John Lineker defeats Louis Gaudinot via unanimous decision
Welterweight: John Hathaway (15-1-0) versus Pascal Krauss (10-0-0)
John Hathaway is one of the torchbearers of England’s rise in the MMA world. He is a complete fighter and has found no small measure of success in the UFC to date.
Krauss is a German submission fighter who debuted in the UFC back in 2010, but has been sidelined by injuries since.
The sheen has worn off of Hathaway a bit since he was dominated by Mike Pyle and won a lackluster decision over Kris McCray. Still, he will enter Saturday’s fight as a decided favourite.
While Krauss will have to battle over a year’s worth of ring rust in addition to a tough opponent, an upset is not out of the question. The German’s style can loosely be compared to Pyle’s or McCray’s, two guys who have previously given Hathaway trouble in the past.
Prediction: Pascal Krauss defeats John Hathaway via unanimous decision
Flyweight: John Dodson (13-5-0) versus Tim Elliott (8-2-1)
Dodson’s pedestrian 13-5 record does not reflect just how good a fighter he is. At 125 pounds, he possesses the speed to match anyone in the flyweight division and has the skills to climb the ladder very quickly.
Tim Elliott is a UFC newcomer who is a nice addition to the promotion’s growing flyweight stable of fighters. Since going 0-2-1 to start his career, Elliott has reeled off eight consecutive wins.
Make no mistake about it, Elliott belongs in the UFC. He hits hard for a flyweight, fights aggressively and has a bevy of nifty submissions from on top. That said, the fight is Dodson’s to lose.
Dodson knocked out T.J. Dillashaw to win The Ultimate Fighter last year showing everyone the advanced level he is at. He will officially carve out a niche amongst the division’s elite with a win over Elliott this weekend.
Prediction: John Dodson defeats Tim Elliott via KO
Lightweight: Tony Ferguson (14-2-0) versus Michael Johnson (11-6-0)
Ferguson has the distinction of winning The Ultimate Fighter’s weakest season to date. Coming out of the tournament a lot of people discounted the meaning of his win, but he has proved his detractors wrong by staying undefeated since then.
Johnson is an Ultimate Fighter runner up who has gone 2-2 in the UFC. He will look to take Ferguson to the ground in this one.
Johnson is not the first good wrestler Ferguson has faced, but he might be the most well-rounded opponent with a wrestling base that Ferguson has yet to encounter.
Submission defence is Johnson’s one glaring weakness, but he gets a pass in this one because Ferguson is not the most dangerous guy on the mat.
While a knockout win for Ferguson is quite possible here, I see Johnson grinding out a decision and handing “El Cucuy” his first UFC defeat.
Prediction: Michael Johnson defeats Tony Ferguson via unanimous decision
Heavyweight: Pat Barry (7-4-0) versus Lavar Johnson (16-5-0)
Pat Barry is a powerful striker that loves to wing big shots all over the Octagon.
Lavar Johnson is a powerful striker that loves to wing big shots all over the Octagon.
This one has knockout written all over it.
A speed and technique edge sides with Barry, but Johnson is the more powerful puncher. Barry would be wise to utilize leg kicks to break Johnson down before getting to uppity. If he goes for broke too early, he is liable to wake up to a very real nightmare.
It is tough to predict a winner in this fight, but not so tough to predict the fight’s method of victory; one way or another, someone is going to be knocked out.
Prediction: Pat Barry defeats Lavar Johnson via KO
Middleweight: Alan Belcher (16-5-0) versus Rousimar Palhares (23-3-0)
Alan Belcher is an electric striker on a three-fight win streak. He is looking to position himself into the realm of title contention with an impressive win over Palhares.
“Paul Harris” is arguably the sport’s most feared submission specialist, and finds himself in a similar position to that of his opponent.
There is no secret as to what each fighter wants to do in this contest – Belcher will be cautiously looking for a knockout on the feet while Palhares will aggressively pursue a takedown at all costs.
Palhares pulls guard without fear, which makes his takedown game legitimate. I just don’t see Belcher avoiding the mat for 15 minutes, and once the fight goes there it won’t last long.
Prediction: Rousimar Palhares defeats Alan Belcher via submission
Welterweight: Johny Hendricks (12-1-0) versus Josh Koscheck (19-5-0)
Hendricks is fresh off a shocking 12 second knockout victory over Jon Fitch. The result is a sound indicator of the type of power he wields.
Koscheck has been a mainstay near the top of the welterweight division for the past eight years. He has won back-to-back fights since suffering an eye injury by the hand of Georges St. Pierre.
Both guys come from wrestling backgrounds and it is often the case that this type of stylistic matchup yields a standup battle.
Knockout power sides with Hendricks here, but Koscheck is the more technical fighter. He is also the better wrestler should that play a large factor, though neither guy will have an easy time taking the other down.
As long as Koscheck can avoid Hendricks’ big overhand right, he should be able to outpoint his upstart opponent and cruise to a decision win.
Prediction: Josh Koscheck defeats Johny Hendricks via unanimous decision
Lightweight: Nate Diaz (15-7-0) versus Jim Miller (21-3-0)
Since returning from an ill-advised foray into the welterweight division, Nate Diaz has been a terror in the lightweight division.
His opponent, Jim Miller, has been one of the division’s best fighters for the past several years and is hoping to a collect a signature win against Diaz that will propel him into a title fight.
Of the two fighters in Saturday’s main event, Diaz is the more dangerous. He has quicker hands – though neither fighter possesses terrific knockout power – and is the superior grappler.
Miller’s one advantage is his wrestling. He should be able to dictate where his fight ends up and is no slouch on either the feet or ground despite Diaz’s superiority.
While it is unlikely that Miller will be able to finish Diaz, he can grind out a decision win by scoring takedowns and controlling his opponent all night long.
If the bout goes the distance, it probably means a loss for Diaz, so the question is – can Diaz stop Miller, who has yet to be stopped in his entire career?
Doubtful.
Prediction: Jim Miller defeats Nate Diaz via unanimous decision
Related read:
More Baseball: Blue Jays after 25 games