Following an inconsistent start to his career with the Florida Marlins, Sechelt, B.C. native Ryan Dempster, has found at home in the Windy City.
As a closer, Dempster averaged 28 saves through his first three seasons with the Cubs.
He was then moved to the starting rotation, where his career flourished, averaging 14 wins and 189 strikeouts over the next three seasons.
Last season was a particularly good one for the 34-year-old veteran, as he picked up 15 wins with 208 strikeouts and a solid 3.85 ERA. However, the good times did not carry over into 2011.
It was an April to forget for the Canadian hurler. His 1-3 record was actually better than his overall performance, which included a 9.58 ERA. The good news is that he has since turned things around, offering an ERA sub-four in the following two months.
With the Cubs already 14 games under .500, you can expect contending teams to reach out to general manager Jim Hendry with Dempster as a middle of the rotation option. These executives will have to decide whether Dempster’s April struggles were an aberration, or a long-term trend.
To determine exactly that, let’s break down Dempster’s performance this season:
Opponents’ OPS vs. Ryan Dempster
| Pitch | April 2011 | May 2011 | June 2011 | 2010 |
| Fastball | 1.135 (49%) | .879 (52%) | .991 (46%) | .808 (54%) |
| Splitter | 1.500 (5%) | .833 (6%) | .500 (5%) | .727 (4%) |
| Slider | 1.038 (35%) | .456 (34%) | .808 (36%) | .607 (33%) |
| Change-up | .529 (11%) | .182 (8%) | .563 (13%) | .519 (8%) |
To determine the opposition’s success against Dempster, we used OPS (on base plus slugging percentage).
This statistic provides us with an idea of how many runners reached base while accentuating power.
Based on this data, we can see that Dempster was simply very hittable in the opening month of the season. However, it is concerning that Dempster’s fastball is significantly more hittable now than it was last season.
That may explain why Dempster is mixing his pitches more this season. In particular, the splitter and change-up have been his most successful pitches. Dempster has utilized these pitches 18% in June, compared to just 12% last season. On the other hand, his slider has been inconsistent.
The high opponents’ OPS suggests that something is plaguing Dempster.
He is either issuing too many free passes, or he is simply getting hit too often.
Here’s a look at Dempster’s 2011 walk rate versus the previous three seasons:
As you can see, Dempster is on pace, or if anything, better than his usual pace when it comes to walking batters.
The fact that the red line is significantly higher than the other three colours explains everything.
Dempster is giving up too many hits. And while he has improved in recent months, he still has a ways to go.
The good news for Dempster is that a Giants offence missing the big bat of Buster Posey awaits him in his next start on Wednesday.