We are now in the middle rounds, and we’ll start to see which players are a bit overrated (Matt Wieters and Chris Carpenter), and which sleepers are falling under the radar (Delmon Young and Clay Buchholz).
Here’s a look at rounds 6-10 in a 14-team 5X5 Fantasy Baseball League.
Round 6
1) Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies
Don’t sleep on Hamels, as the youngest of the four Phillies standouts he is the only ace who has yet to reach his ceiling.
2) Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies
This is a pretty early pick for an outfielder who failed to score 85 runs, hit 20 home runs, drive in 70 RBI, or even hit .260 last season. Clearly, the fantasy manager was drawn by his 34 steals, but I would have preferred Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson.
3) Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees
As I’ve stated before, I am against drafting a closer this early in the draft, even if Rivera is a sure thing.
4) Heath Bell, RP, Padres
Bell is a solid arm, but what happens if he is traded to a contender during the season and ends up in middle relief?
5) Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers
We’re clearly experiencing a run on closers here, and I would rather wait another five rounds to get someone like John Axford than take a gamble on Broxton bouncing back.
6) Carlos Santana, OF, Indians
This pick is a bit early for a prospect catcher who has yet to prove himself.
7) Neftali Feliz, RP, Rangers
No matter what role Feliz is in he’ll have value. I’m not sure what we should hope for. After all, we would love to see him go 200 innings, but then again, so far he has only had success one inning at a time.
8) Brian Wilson, RP, Giants
A little surprising to see so many closers drafted ahead of him when he led the Majors in saves last season.
9) Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees
While he did not post the best numbers last season, he now has a year in the Bronx under his belt, and if healthy, 30 home runs are very realistic with 20-plus steals.
10) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
This was my pick and while it may carry some risk if Ellsbury is healthy he can steal 50 bases and score 120 runs. That would make him a top-30 player.
11) Joakim Soria, RP, Royals
One of the elite closers in the game, imagine how many saves he would rack up if the Royals won some games.
12) Michael Young, 3B, Rangers
A move to DH should keep him fresh all season. This is a bit early to draft Young, and I would be very scared that he may be traded out of Texas, crushing his fantasy value.
13) Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds
One of the best outfielders in the second half of the season, Stubbs offers the rare combination of power and speed.
14) Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins
My final pick of my fantasy draft last season, this time the Twins ace is drafted in the sixth round because he has proven that he’s healthy.
Round 7
1) Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers
One of the better young pitchers in baseball, Gallardo is a strikeout machine.
2) BJ Upton, OF, Rays
He gets drafted early based on his potential, but he has yet to deliver the season that people have been predicting since he broke into the Big Leagues.
3) Jered Weaver, SP, Angels
One of the most underappreciated stars in the game, Weaver evolved into a strikeout artist last season.
4) Matt Cain, SP, Giants
The World Series Champion will offer a low ERA with a healthy dose of strikeouts and wins.
5) Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles
A change of scenery will do him some good, and I like the young talent that surrounds him in the Orioles lineup. In need of a third baseman, I made this pick in fear that Pedro Alvarez would not last another round.
6) Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks
He was better than Derek Jeter last season, and yet he is younger and at this point in his career carries greater potential.
7) Corey Hart, OF, Brewers
He broke out last season, but the key to his 2011 campaign will be staying healthy.
8) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
One of the top prospects in baseball, it would not surprise anyone if Alvarez blasts 30 home runs with 100 RBI as soon as this season.
9) Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
One of the most lethal power hitters in baseball, 30 round-trippers is an easy expectation, even if this is his first full season of Major League service.
10) Nick Swisher, OF, Yankees
Swisher will be hard-pressed to flirt with a .300 average again this season.
11) Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox
Even after yet another standout season, Konerko lacks respect in the fantasy baseball community.
12) Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
He had a nice turnaround season, but let’s not kid ourselves, hitting above .250 is still very much a challenge for Young.
13) Delmon Young, OF, Tigers
One of my favourite hitters in baseball, Young reminds me a lot of Garrett Anderson. The obvious drawbacks are a pitcher-friendly home ballpark and a lack of action on the base paths.
14) Martin Prado, 2B/3B/OF, Braves
Perhaps the best utility player in fantasy baseball, Prado added some pop and now contributes in all categories aside from steals.
Round 8
1) Roy Oswalt, SP, Phillies
This is an ace who is going under the radar because of his age, and yet when he was traded to the Phillies last season he returned to greatness.
2) Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Red Sox
Not a bad pick, Papelbon should get plenty of saves and offer solid all-around production.
3) Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks
One of the elite power sources at second base; this is a fine pick.
4) Joe Nathan, RP, Twins
Again, people love their closers too much, particularly this pick, as Nathan just missed the entire 2010 season.
5) Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
This pick will backfire if Chris Sale ends up getting some save opportunities.
6) Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
Andrus lost all of his power last season. He’ll need to be more than a singles machine to live up to his billing.
7) Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals
He looks to be one of the better outfield bats in the game, but he needs to gain some consistency in his swing.
8) Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers
Age does not do well for injury-prone shortstops who depend on speed.
9) Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers
A solid pick, Scherzer is evolving into one of the better hurlers in baseball. He should reach 200 K’s this season.
10) Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
I was in need of an outfielder and figured Jones was a safe bet. At worst he gets 20 home runs and 10 steals. At best, we’re talking 25 home runs, high average, and 20 steals.
11) Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals
I’m a little nervous about Carpenter this season. He’s getting up there in age and has been more brittle than porcelain for stretches of his career.
12) Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles
It’s not a positive sign when Roberts is already dealing with back pain before the season’s first pitch.
13) Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays
He added speed to his repertoire, and I think he bounces back after a down year with the bat.
14) Casey McGehee, 3B, Brewers
I just don’t think he has much of a ceiling. So while you may get 20 home runs and 90 RBI, he will hurt you in runs and steals.
Round 9
1) Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
He was supposed to be the next Mike Piazza, but instead it has taken 800 at bats for Wieters to reach 20 home runs, and his .266 career average isn’t anything to write home about.
2) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
A season ago, Sandoval was a popular third round pick fresh off of a .330 average and 25 home runs in 2009. Unfortunately, Sandoval then struggled a great deal last season, and at this point, it’s a matter of fantasy managers gambling that Sandoval can return to his ’09 form.
3) JJ Putz, RP, Diamondbacks
After proving that he was healthy last season as a middle reliever for the White Sox, Putz will return to the closer’s role this season in the desert.
4) Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers
Always effective when healthy, Marcum should be at his best this season now that he escapes the AL East and enters the more favourable National League for pitchers.
5) Mike Napoli, C, Rangers
I could not be happier to have Napoli on my team. Not only is he likely to crush 30-home runs, but the fact that he was drafted this late after Matt Wieters was taken makes this a great value pick.
6) Chad Billingsley, SP, Dodgers
Though Billingsley has not quite matched his performance from the 2008 season, the Dodgers flame-thrower remains effective with a solid ERA, plenty of K’s, and a dozen or more wins each season.
7) Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Orioles
I expect Guerrero’s numbers to take a dive now that he leaves the hitter’s haven in Arlington, Texas.
8) Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals
One of the best value picks of the draft, Desmond not only posted numbers similar to Derek Jeter last season, but this second-year shortstop should be on the rise.
9) Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays
Everyone recalls his 17-strikeout one-hitter, but Morrow is a still a work in progress, as suggested by his 4.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP last season.
10) Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox
Despite missing 30 or more games in each of the last three seasons, Quentin has always blasted at least 20 home runs. You can only imagine what type of power he would offer if healthy for a full season.
11) Rajai Davis, OF, Blue Jays
Isn’t it crazy that Rajai Davis was drafted before Grady Sizemore. Not really when you consider the runs and steals that Davis should rack up in a solid Blue Jays lineup.
12) Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians
He is still making his way back from last year’s injury, so drafting him any earlier than the 10th round could very well be wishful thinking.
13) Mike Avilis, 2B/SS, Royals
When healthy, Aviles is a solid middle infielder with some pop and speed combined with a .300 average. This is a solid pick.
14) Carlos Pena, 1B, Cubs
Pena should hit north of .230 this season with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. In a sense, you’re picking up power to the expense of average and speed.
Round 10
1) Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox
One of the biggest surprises last season, Buchholz was simply dominant with a 2.33 ERA. If not for his pedestrian strikeout totals, Buchholz would have been drafted much earlier. Nonetheless, this is still very much a steal.
2) Vernon Wells, OF, Angels
This former Blue Jays star hopes to drink from the fountain of youth that has kept fellow outfield veterans Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter effective late in their careers in Anaheim.
3) Torii Hunter, OF, Angels
This is a solid pick, as Hunter has been more consistent than his new teammate Vernon Wells over the last few years.
4) Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF, Tigers
His second half of the season was very impressive, as Raburn combined power with a high average.
5) Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays
After an MVP-caliber 2009 season, Lind regressed a great deal last season, as his average fell nearly 70 points and his home run total was cut by a third. At 27 years old, Lind should bounce back, making this a solid pick.
6) Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
The supposed can’t miss product missed last season. Kendrick had decent run production, but the average took a hit.
7) Jason Bay, OF, Mets
In his first season with the Mets, Bay saw his home run total decline by 30. While he was very much a bust, he did offer decent run production and surprising speed with 10 steals before a freak injury ended his season. He should bounce back mildly this season with 20 home runs.
8) John Buck, C, Marlins
After belting 20 home runs last season in Toronto, Buck will take his talents to South Beach. We will find out if he is a legit power bat or if the slugger’s touch was just contagious in Toronto.
9) Neil Walker, 2B/3B, Pirates
One of the top surprises last season, Walker hit 12 home runs with 66 RBI and a .296 average.
10) Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets
This was my pick and maybe it’s because I’m a Mets fan, but I believe Beltran can end up surprising us with 20-plus home runs and a .280-plus average.
11) Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees
Not a bad pick because of his speed and runs scored, but I am not a believer that Gardner will be able to keep his average north of .280.
12) Michael Bourn, OF, Astros
An elite speedster, Bourn lacks the power and consistency with the bat needed to rank amongst the top outfielders in baseball.
13) Bobby Abreu, OF, Angels
Even though Abreu’s average took a hit last season, he still offered plenty of power and speed. At 37 years old, how much longer will the speed and power keep up? A steep drop could come as soon as this season.
14) Chone Figgins, 2B/3B, Mariners
One poor season should not end a career, and on that note, I see Figgins bouncing back this season, with a .280-plus average and at least 90 runs scored.