Shaw’s Fantasy Hits and Misses: Part 2

For the first time in my fantasy career, I am left on the sidelines in the fantasy football postseason. As I mentioned in my earlier column, it wasn’t necessarily my fault.

Drafting Jamaal Charles, Philip Rivers, and Reggie Wayne with three of my first four picks seemed relatively safe at the time, but it appears luck wasn’t on my side this season.

Now we will look at another one of my fantasy teams. This one finished 6-7, and despite the better finish, I am willing to accept more blame for the way this league turned out.

First round:

I planned to nab an elite wide out or a solid running back with the 10th pick of the draft. It came down to two Falcons; Roddy White or Michael Turner.

Since this was a point per reception (PPR) league — and White was coming off a dream season — I went the unconventional route and picked up a wide receiver in the first round.

In hindsight this was not a poor pick. Both Falcons had similar seasons in yards and touchdowns. The key difference is that Michael Turner was consistent throughout the season, while White really stepped up at the end of the season. It turned out to be a little too late for my fantasy team.

Here’s a look at how both players performed in the two halves of the fantasy regular season:

Games 1-8
White: 43 receptions, 501 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Turner: 8 receptions, 797 total yards, 7 touchdowns.

Games 9-14
White: 42 receptions, 599 yards, 5 touchdowns.
Turner: 5 receptions, 437 total yards, 2 touchdowns.

Second round:

My second round pick was veteran running back Steven Jackson of the St. Louis Rams. Once again, he is on pace for a fine season and can’t be considered a bust, but he has been remarkably inconsistent.

Jackson had three games with greater than 125 rushing yards and four games with fewer than 50 rushing yards. His feast or famine performances led to brilliant wins or devastating losses for my fantasy team.

Third Round miss: Felix Jones

Jones may offer fantasy managers a last hurrah now that DeMarco Murray is lost for the season, but he was an absolute bust as a third round pick.

I should have seen this coming. In three years as a pro, Jones has found the end zone on just eight occasions and never surpassed 800 rushing yards in a season. He proved to be a fine receiving threat last season, but never looked comfortable as a lead running back. That’s exactly why the Cowboys drafted Murray.

The Jones selection was definitely a mis-pick with Wes Welker still on the board, who is a PPR machine.

Fourth round miss: Knowshon Moreno

I doubled down on potential and unusually high expectations with my selection of Moreno in the following round. Similar to Jones, Moreno was unproven as a lead running back. I took my chances and I got stung twice.

Moreno could not stay healthy for the second year in a row in Denver. Free agent signing Willis McGahee proved to be the Broncos’ top back, leading me to toss Moreno on the waiver wire.

Ryan Mathews or Percy Harvin would have been superior picks in this slot.

The mid-round injury bug bites:

I had two middle round picks who offered great starts only to go down with season-ending injuries.

The first was Titans wide out Kenny Britt, whom I selected in the sixth round. Through his first two games Britt offered 14 grabs for 272 yards and three touchdowns. He then went down with a season-ending knee injury the following game.

Tim Hightower was also a nice pick in the eighth round. He averaged 94 yards with a got into the end zone twice in the first three games, but a torn ACL ended his season. I was correct in my initial view of Hightower as a sleeper, but the good times did not last.

Finally a hit: A young Lion

In the ninth round I selected Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. I originally intended for him to be back up Matt Ryan, but he eventually became my top option.

Stafford has great potential and a sensational receiving corps, but he had never stayed healthy. That has finally changed this season, as Stafford has played in every game and ranks fifth amongst fantasy signal callers.

Another miss: Davone Bess

After hitting the jackpot with Stafford, I drafted Dolphins wide out Davone Bess. The veteran receiver had made solid strides the previous two seasons as a top target in Miami. However, this season did not go according to plan.

Bess is averaging nearly 20 fewer yards per game and has scored just two touchdowns in 2011. Whether it was Chad Henne or Matt Moore under centre, their attention was certainly on Reggie Bush out of the backfield, rather than Bess in the slot, where he racked up 79 and 76 catches the past two seasons.

The short-lived hit: DeMarco’s Work Wearhouse

I gave my fantasy teams a last chance at contention by dropping Bess for Cowboys rookie DeMarco Murray on Oct. 19. This was particularly important since I had drafted Felix Jones so early.

I enjoyed a magnificent six-game run with Murray that included his 253 rushing yards against the Rams in Week 7. However, the damage had already been done. My fantasy team finished the season with a 6-7 record just missed out of playoff contention.

In hindsight, I have to take fewer gambles in the early rounds. Both Jones and Moreno were unproven and not worthy of such high picks.

The Britt and Hightower injuries were unforeseen and unfortunate, but that is no excuse.

We’ll see if next year I can catch a few more breaks.

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