The 2026 FIFA World Cup comes to its epic conclusion on Sunday when one of the tournament’s most potent offences meets its stingiest defence in the grand finale.
To help set the stage, Sportsnet’s soccer experts answer some of the most burning questions heading into Sunday’s final, including who will win the head-to-head battle between Lionel Messi vs. Lamine Yamal as well as which players could step up as X-factors to decide the match.
Spain has allowed one goal all tournament. Argentina has scored 19. Can Spain’s defence hold off Argentina’s attack?
James Sharman (Sportsnet soccer analyst): It stands to reason that at some point, Spain’s defence will be breached again. The trouble has been that no matter what is thrown at them, this is genuinely an eleven-man defensive system. The technicals are simple: just keep the ball and, when you lose it, win it back as quickly as possible. No team has figured that out thus far. No team has been Argentina, though. Lionel Scaloni’s world champs have been forced to attack from desperation throughout the tournament, against numerous systems. They always come through … and they will again on Sunday.
John Molinaro (Sportsnet soccer reporter): For my money, Spain’s Aymeric Laporte and Pau Cubarsi have been the best centre-back pairing — by quite some distance — at the World Cup. But as great as they’ve been in anchoring an impenetrable back line, stopping an Argentina side that has averaged 2.72 goals per match, has scored at least twice in each of their seven games and has received goals from eight different players will prove to be too much for La Roja.
Devang Desai (Sportsnet.ca soccer contributor): Yes. Argentina has exploited fragile opponents and favourable match contexts to boost their goal totals. In Spain, they face a group that has already neutered the best attack (France) and one that boasts the top-performing defenders of the tournament — from Unai Simon in goal, to Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte at centre-back, and Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro at fullback. In the midfield, Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni must decide how he wants to combat the formidable Spanish double-pivot of Rodri and Fabian Ruiz. They will need attacking contributions from the likes of Enzo Fernandez again to break Spain’s defence.
Julia Ranney (Sportsnet.ca soccer contributor): Between Spain’s defensive masterclass and Argentina’s attacking firepower, something has to give. Sorry Messi fans, but I don’t think Argentina will crack Spain’s code. La Roja’s defending starts long before opponents reach the penalty area, with relentless pressing and suffocating marking that leaves little room to breathe. Spain doesn’t just dominate possession, they are just as good without the ball, shutting down attacks before they begin. If any team can keep Argentina’s charge quiet, it’s the European champions.
Kai Gammage (Sportsnet.ca soccer contributor): As long as Spain doesn't sub on three defenders, set up in a back five with full-backs in the midfield, and employ the "Azteca Plan," I tend to think they'll have a better time shutting down the Argentinian attack than some others at this tournament. In all seriousness, Spain plays a significantly more cohesive brand of defence and isn't a side to let the offence come to them. Rather, when they gain possession, they tend to hold onto it and move the ball around systematically. Argentina had 160 passes in the final third in the last 30 minutes of the semi, while England had only four. Spain won't allow the field to tilt that drastically.
Lamine Yamal vs. Lionel Messi: which of the two stars will shine brightest in the final? And could Sunday’s head-to-head decide this year’s Ballon d’Or?
Sharman: What is more surprising: Lionel Messi’s return to 2012 Lionel Messi over the past six weeks, or Lamine Yamal’s failure to make this World Cup his? I am going to say the former. Yamal is barely 19; he entered with the curse of the hamstring and has actually been fantastic, if not dominating. Messi, on the other hand, has defied all expectations. Of course he’d be great … but this great? I will go out on a limb, though: Spain is just too good. Yamal has recovered, so his pace and mobility will be too much for left-back Nicolas Tagliafico and Argentina’s backline. He will officially receive the torch from Messi. As for the Ballon d’Or? Just hand it over to Messi for one last time.
Molinaro: It has to be Lionel Messi who is putting together one of the single best World Cup campaigns by a player in the tournament’s history. The Argentine ace has eight goals and four assists in seven games. Lamine Yamal hasn’t been nearly as influential and, truth be told, has been rather quiet for Spain — just one goal in seven games. If Argentina wins on Sunday and Messi records another goal contribution, it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll win the Ballon d’Or.
Desai: Messi has made a fool out of me for doubting him many times (including at this tournament), and yet I’m picking Yamal. It’s been a quiet World Cup by Yamal’s standards, but the 19-year-old — 19 years after taking pictures with the Argentine legend as a baby —will seize the moment in New Jersey in part because of his matchup with Nicolás Tagliafico. The Lyon defender has been reliable for Scaloni, but this is a different test for the veteran.
Meanwhile, Messi will be watched by the likes of Laporte and Cucurella, two players very much in form. An Argentina win in the final, however, would propel Messi into Ballon d’Or favourite territory thanks to his incredible statistical outlay at this World Cup. The same cannot be said for Yamal, barring the sensational on Sunday.
Ranney: A 19-year-old at his first World Cup versus a 39-year-old at his sixth. Yamal may be soccer’s future, but I’m backing Messi, who still owns the biggest stage. While Yamal has dazzled with creativity, he’s scored just once at this tournament. Meanwhile, Messi’s eight goals prove he still delivers when the stakes are highest. Whatever happens in the final, Messi may already have one hand on the Ballon d’Or, especially after leading Inter Miami to the MLS Cup. Yamal helped Barcelona win La Liga, but it’s hard to compete with Messi’s legacy — especially if this is his last World Cup.
Gammage: You could replace Lamine Yamal's name with anyone on the face of the Earth — LeBron James, Patrick Mahomes, Frances McDormand — and I'll take Messi every single time. Doesn't matter the opponent, Messi has been untouchable at this tournament, putting his legacy out of reach. Meanwhile, Yamal has had a solid tournament, but it's hard to say he's lived up to the hype with only one goal contribution. Messi is far beyond hype, but becoming the first MLS player to win the Ballon d'Or would be groundbreaking in and of itself.
Which player (not named Yamal) could be an X-factor for Spain?
Sharman: Rodri has been the difference for Spain. That said, he would be a boring answer. I will throw out the name Nico Williams. We’ve barely seen him through injury, but when healthy, he is right up there with Yamal, just on the other wing. If Williams comes in off the bench again, he will exploit an exhausted Argentine backline and could make a close game not close at all!
Molinaro: Rodri has been the key figure in Spain’s midfield at the World Cup. The Manchester City star is one of the best in the world when it comes to controlling games from his position in central midfield. He’s tactically astute and immaculate in his distribution of the ball, expertly running Spain’s midfield machine.
Desai: Super sub Mikel Merino will be involved should Spain need a goal, but the pick here is Cucurella. The former Chelsea defender, who completed a move to Real Madrid on the eve of the tournament, has been phenomenal for Spain manager Luis de la Fuente. He’ll have to play a big part in shutting down Messi and company.
Ranney: Rodri. Spain’s metronome is the player who makes everything tick. He dictates the tempo with pinpoint passing, shrugs off pressure and always seems to be one step ahead. His ability to slow or accelerate the game at exactly the right moment gives Spain complete control. If Spain wants to keep Argentina chasing shadows, it all starts with Rodri manning the midfield.
Gammage: Rodri. The former Ballon d'Or winner looked like his empirical self in the semifinal against France, dictating the tempo, jump-starting the attack and winning duels. He has an absurd 655 completed passes at the World Cup with a 92.91 per cent accuracy, and has 173 passes in the final third. Always precise, always on time.
Which player (not named Messi) could be an X-factor for Argentina?
Sharman: Nico Gonzalez came off the bench for Argentina against England and changed the game. I wonder if that performance will afford him the start against Spain. If Argentina have little of the ball — which is likely against this Spain side — they need to be direct from the wide areas when they do get it. Gonzalez can be that player.
Molinaro: Enzo Fernández has come through in the clutch when Argentina has needed him. The Chelsea midfielder scored the winner in injury time to complete Argentina’s incredible comeback victory over Egypt in the Round of 16 and then bagged a late equalizer in Argentina's win vs. England in the semifinals.
Desai: Julian Alvarez took a while to get going but his wonder-strike to beat Switzerland was worth the wait. If Messi is shackled by Cucurella and his partners, the onus to create will fall on Alvarez. Thankfully for Scaloni, the Atletico Madrid attacker is more than capable of producing the impossible.
Ranney: Julian Alvarez. Messi will command the headlines, but Alvarez could decide the final. His brilliant extra-time winner against Switzerland was a reminder of the striker's knack for delivering in clutch moments. He's quietly grown into the tournament, and if Spain overcommits to stopping Messi, Alvarez has the movement, finishing and confidence to make them pay.
Gammage: It's tough because this team plays for and around Messi, but I do think Enzo Fernandez has been the necessary linchpin in the midfield. His goal against England felt a long time coming, as he peppered long shots near goal, and his 104 touches were the most in the game. He also finished that win with a 98 per cent passing accuracy, missing only two of his 84 balls. To compete with Spain's clinical midfield, Fernandez will have to be on point.
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Your prediction for the final?
Sharman: Spain 3, Argentina 1. You can only cheat the devil so many times, and Spain will be one famous and desperate win too many for Argentina. A new dynasty is here, and for the second time in just over a decade, it’s the possession kings, Spain!
Molinaro: 2-1 win for Argentina. The South Americans will prevent the reigning European champions from dictating the flow of the match and drag them into a physical street fight of a game en route to becoming the first nation to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil (1958-62).
Desai: Spain follows their blueprint against France, getting out to a lead before the first hydration break and then adding an insurance marker in the second half, all while overcoming another furious Argentina onslaught. Spain wins 2-0.
Ranney: Spain 2, Argentina 1. I expect a cagey, tactical battle. Argentina will sit deep and wait for the perfect moment to strike, but Spain’s patience and relentless possession will eventually prevail. Unlike England in the semifinal, La Roja won’t retreat if they take the lead, which could prove the difference.
Gammage: Spain 2, Argentina 1. Spain doesn't feel, to me, like a team that will fall victim to late pressure regardless of the score. La Roja have also shown off some late heroics with winners from Mikel Merino, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a similar outcome in this one.
