The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup still has one final hurdle.
When FIFA expanded the field to 48 teams — adding 16 spots from 2022 — it was expected to create a clearer path for those who narrowly missed out in previous cycles. Instead, the added breathing room has introduced a layer of intrigue and a tougher journey for the remaining spots.
With just months to go before kickoff, a number of countries find themselves in the most unforgiving position in international football: the playoffs. It’s a stage defined by pressure, where the margin for error disappears and second chances no longer exist.
Sixteen European teams will compete for four qualification spots, while the remaining two berths will be determined in a new intercontinental tournament.
Here are the burning questions left to answer ahead of the FIFA World Cup playoffs, with games being held Thursday and next Tuesday:
Can Italy handle the pressure and avoid disaster?
Gennaro Gattuso is no stranger to the big stage, but now on the sidelines, he must make the right moves to avoid seeing his country miss a third consecutive World Cup.
If Italy loses this week, it will make history for the wrong reasons; no multi-time World Cup winner has ever missed three straight tournaments.
Despite winning Euro 2020 (played in 2021), 12th-ranked Italy saw its World Cup hopes take a hit after a 3-0 loss to Norway last June, leading to manager Luciano Spalletti being replaced by Gattuso.
To qualify, Italy must beat Northern Ireland on Thursday and then the winner of Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina next Tuesday. The winner of Path A faces Canada in the Toronto World Cup opener on June 12.
Italy has everything to lose, and Northern Ireland will try to use that pressure against the Italians.
Unlike 2018 and 2022, when decisive legs were played in away or neutral environments, Italy has the advantage of hosting Northern Ireland in Bergamo. Gattuso chose the venue over larger stadiums in hopes of a more favourable, intimate atmosphere.
On paper, Italy has the more talented roster, especially in midfield, but it must deliver in the box. Northern Ireland will be without Dan Ballard and Conor Bradley, making an already tough matchup even more difficult.
Does Lewandowski get one last World Cup appearance?
With Poland unable to secure automatic qualification, it must first get past Albania in the playoff semifinal, with a potential final against either Ukraine or Sweden.
Two wins and they’re in. One slip, and the World Cup dreams of Robert Lewandowski are over.
By the time the tournament kicks off in North America in June, Lewandowski will be 37, making this almost certainly his final opportunity on the sport’s biggest stage. He remains the focal point of Poland’s attack and its all-time leading scorer, meaning the team's chances will once again rest heavily on his shoulders.
He remains a consistent goal-scoring presence with Barcelona after arriving from Bayern Munich, showing that he still has a lot left in the tank. Lewandowski has 11 goals and one assist in La Liga, still operating near a goal-every-other-game pace despite reduced minutes and a more rotational role in the squad.
Unfortunately, he doesn't have the supporting cast with the Polish national team that Barcelona provides, and it will be tough to expect the veteran striker to keep his country's tournament hopes alive.
Who can Wales rely on to deliver?
For nearly a decade, Gareth Bale was the defining figure for Wales. With that era over, the squad has evolved into a group built on structure and collective execution.
Brennan Johnson and Daniel James bring pace, while Harry Wilson enters as the main attacking threat after scoring five goals in qualifying. However, the Welsh side is depleted: defenders Ben Davies and Chris Mepham, as well as forward Kieffer Moore, are ruled out with injuries.
Going into its match against Bosnia in Cardiff, 35th-ranked Wales has won five of its last six home competitive matches, including a 7-1 victory over North Macedonia.
Having punched its ticket to the 2022 World Cup through the playoffs, Wales knows the route well. If it moves past Bosnia in Cardiff, a date with Italy could loom in the final.
Who survives the unpredictable Intercontinental playoffs?
The 2026 FIFA Playoff Tournament will be staged Thursday and next Tuesday in Mexico at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara and Estadio BBVA in Monterrey
Jamaica and Suriname (CONCACAF), Bolivia (CONMEBOL), New Caledonia (OFC), Iraq (AFC), and DR Congo (CAF) represent a mix of styles.
What makes this stage so volatile is the lack of familiarity. These teams rarely face each other, leaving coaching staffs with limited reference points, so expect players to have to adjust on the fly.
Jamaica is hunting its first qualification since 1998, relying on Europe-based talent like Leon Bailey and Demarai Gray to get past New Caledonia. Meanwhile, Bolivia — boosted by a stunning qualifying win over Brazil — hopes to qualify for the first time since 1994. They will lean on Miguel Terceros, who was prolific during the CONMEBOL rounds, when they face Suriname.
DR Congo faces the winner of New Caledonia and Jamaica and Iraq awaits the Bolivia-Suriname winner. DR Congo earned impressive wins over Cameroon and Nigeria behind Chancel Mbemba and Brentford’s Yoane Wissa. Iraq, led by Aymen Hussein (eight goals in preliminaries) and rising star Ali Jasim, is looking to end its own lengthy drought.
Which countries will struggle to break through remaining European bracket?
When you have 16 teams competing for four spots, there will certainly be some disappointed teams by the end of the playoffs.
Path B: Ukraine must play its home matches in Spain due to the ongoing conflict with Russia. Sweden is hoping Graham Potter can stabilize a rocky campaign, while Albania relies on a disciplined defence.
Path C: Turkey boasts emerging talents Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz but remains shaky at the back. Romania lacks Turkey’s firepower, while Slovakia enters with momentum after a stunning win over Germany. Kosovo, a FIFA member only since 2016, is led by Vedat Muriqi, who is currently second in La Liga scoring.
Path D: Denmark is the only top-25 team in its bracket, but the Republic of Ireland is rejuvenated under new management, and North Macedonia remains a "giant-killer" after famously knocking Italy out of the 2022 cycle. Czechia is the other team.
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