Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
A couple of highly anticipated Division Finals are set to go on Sunday. Hamilton and Calgary look to reach the Grey Cup game for a second straight year. Meanwhile, Ottawa and Edmonton are trying to meet up in the CFL title game for the first time since 1981.
Ticats (11-8) @ Redblacks (12-6)
Last week: Ticats won at home against Toronto 25-22; Redblacks enjoyed a bye week.
Ottawa’s storybook season continues, as the team from the nation’s capital plays in an Eastern final for the first time since 1982.
The Redblacks rung up four straight victories to end the regular season – two of those came against Hamilton in Week 19 and 20 to lock up a bye and top spot in the East.
Henry Burris put together a CFL Most Outstanding Player-calibre season in 2015 and he’s really been a main factor in the team’s quick rise to prominence. But don’t forget that the Redblacks’ defence has been stingy, too. In particular Ottawa’s front seven has been impressive, racking up a league-high 62 sacks – Canadian Justin Capicciotti leads the team with 12 quarterback takedowns – and holding opponents to a CFL-low 70.8 rushing yards per game.
Those two numbers are vitally important when you look at the weather for Sunday – 70 per cent chance of rain and a high of four degrees – and what the Ticats likely want to do on offence: ground and pound. Jeremiah Masoli started at quarterback for Hamilton in the Eastern semifinal and the team finished with 28 rushing attempts compared to 20 pass attempts. Not all of those running plays were called as some came from Masoli scrambling for yards with his feet, an area where he excels.
It will be important for Ottawa to coral Hamilton’s dual-threat pivot and stay stout against C.J. Gable when he touches the football. There is no secret that the Ticats want to slow the game down and make it a brawl-it-out, low-scoring affair. If the Redblacks can stuff the rush consistently Ottawa could run away with the game.
Line: Redblacks -6.5
Pick: Ottawa
Stampeders (15-4) @ Eskimos (14-4)
Last week: Stampeders won 35-9 at home against B.C.; Eskimos enjoyed two straight bye weeks.
Calgary and Edmonton has all the makings of a classic CFL playoff tilt. Each team has a healthy franchise quarterback, playmakers around them, smart, physical defences and strong special teams. Every inch will be hard earned when the Stamps visit Commonwealth Stadium to take on the Eskimos.
One glaring area could make the difference in the outcome: Calgary’s decimated offensive line. Starting-calibre linemen Edwin Harrison, Dan Federkeil, Brander Craighead, Brad Erdos and Karl Lavoie are on injured lists, and Pierre Lavertu and Shane Bergman suffered injuries in the Western Semifinal and are doubtful for the Western Final according to John Hufnagel. That’s six Canadian blockers hurt on an O-line that started four to begin the 2015 season. National Quinn Smith has flipped over to the offensive line from the defensive side of the ball and Junior Turner did the same in-game last week. If Lavertu and Bergman don’t play, expect to see new faces up front and possible different ratio changes at other spots on the depth chart as a result.
Whoever lines up for Calgary on the offensive line needs to be able to consistently block whatever Chris Jones throws at them, he’s been known to dial up creative pressure schemes. Edmonton’s defensive line is strong with 2015 West all-star Almondo Sewell and disruptive ends Odell Willis and Willie Jefferson Also, when you consider that linebackers Deon Lacey and Dexter McCoil often roam around close to the line of scrimmage, an offensive line group that likely hasn’t had any game reps together could have their hands full.
That said, Hufnagel’s teams always seem to find a way to soldier on no matter who’s in the line-up and even though Edmonton looks poised for a Grey Cup run it won’t be easy to do away with the defending champion Stampeders.
Line: Eskimos -2.5
Pick: Calgary
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 33-29-1