Why the Hamilton Tiger-Cats will win the 107th Grey Cup

Sean Reynolds and Travis Lulay talk about two storylines as the Grey Cup approaches.

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats may not end their 20-year Grey Cup drought in 2019, a couple years before hosting the big game themselves. But they should.

It’s a little poetic: The Ticats thought they had the Grey Cup won five years ago against Calgary and now they’re favoured to win it in Calgary. Here’s why the 107th Grey Cup is Hamilton’s to lose.

1. Depth of playmakers on D

Willie Jefferson is a beast and put up 12 sacks this season. And when Adam Bighill retires, he’ll be considered one of the best linebackers to play for two franchises. But the majority of the defensive game wreckers who take the field on Sunday will be wearing black and gold. And they come from all levels of the defence.

Delvin Breaux chipped in with 26 tackles and one interception this season. The only reason his numbers weren’t higher is because his reputation proceeds him, and CFL play callers and quarterbacks know better than to test the shutdown corner.

Ja’Gared Davis came over to the Ticats in the off-season and made an impact to the tune of 54 tackles and 13 sacks.

Tunde Adeleke is the best Canadian secondary player in the league.

Jumal Rolle leads the team in interceptions with five and is coming off the bench.

And the team’s nominee for most outstanding defender is linebacker Simoni Lawrence, who had a CFL record 17 tackles the last time he faced Winnipeg.

They have so many defensive playmakers that every play becomes a race to the ball to see who can make something happen first.

2. Similar, but better

In the season series between these two times, Hamilton won both their July 26 matchup at home 23–15 and their rematch in Winnipeg on Sept. 27 33-13. Winnipeg became a vastly different team from that point onwards, but it’s important to note that Hamilton didn’t need to. The Ticats were the best team in the league in the Summer and Fall, and they’re the best team in the league now.

The teams are actually built pretty similarly. Explosive players on offence, and defences that get after the QB and try to turn the ball over. Hamilton has an edge in every related category.

HAM WPG
POINTS/G 30.6 28.2
POINTS AGAINST/G 19.1 22.7
TURNOVER MARGIN +8 +7
QB SACKS 54 38

3. Redemption motivation

After the Bombers won back-to-back road playoff games, Winnipeg’s season is already a success no matter what happens on Sunday. For Hamilton, this season is a success only if they finish the deal. Nine players on the current roster were on the team when they thought a Brandon Banks return TD had won them the Grey Cup only to learn the play was called back by penalty. Seizing the opportunity this time around will be a point of emphasis.

4. Coaching

Often times we evaluate the rosters, but in big games coaching matters. Orlondo Steinhauer was one of three rookie head coaches to have double-digit wins this year, leading the group with a league-best 15. He’s the overwhelming favourite to win coach of the year. Mike O’Shea has assembled a strong staff of his own, but I’m not sure if there is a better coordinator trio than Steinhauer’s deputies Jeff Reinbold (special teams), Tommy Condell (offence) and Mark Washington (defence).

With at least two vacancies in other CFL markets, Hamilton might not be able to keep this group together, but that’s not going to stop them from once again putting their players in a position to succeed on Sunday.

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5. Great Dane

In his last six starts alone, Dane Evans has completed 72 per cent of his passes for 2,121 yards, 12 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Most importantly he’s 6-0 in that span and 10-2 overall as a starter this season. Since he took over, all the team has done is win. No QB has played better down the stretch than Evans.

6. New QB, who dis?

Zach Collaros on the other hand has been a member of the Blue Bombers for only 49 days. The lack of familiarity and lack of ability to expand the playbook will give Hamilton the ability to key in on certain personnel groupings and formations.

7. Yards after catch

Hamilton has the league’s best receiver in Brandon Banks, who ranks first in the league in receptions (112), receiving yards (1,550) and TDs (13). But he’s far from the only elusive weapon in the Ticats’ pass-catching arsenal. While Banks led the way with 657 yards after the catch, Bralon Addison (558), Marcus Tucker (197), Jaelon Acklin (192) and Luke Tasker (132) all become running backs when they get the ball in their hands in space.

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