Road teams continue to get it done with a 22-13-1 straight up record, yet all four home teams are favoured in Week 10. Calgary is the only team in the league with a winning record at home (3-0). Franchises hosting games this week are 7-8-1 on their own turf – take out the Stamps and that drops to 4-8-1. That’s flat out terrible for what’s supposedly an advantage: Sleeping in your own bed, no travel, familiar stadium surroundings and a boost from the fans.
Luckily for us we don’t have to solve the mystery, picking winners – regardless if it’s the home or visiting squad – is what it’s all about. A tidy 4-0 week and 7-1 run gives us lots of confidence.
BC Lions (5-3) @ Ottawa Redblacks (4-3-1)
When Trevor Harris has been heavily involved in a game with Ottawa this season, the Redblacks have not suffered a defeat. The 30-year-old guided the red, black and white to a 3-0-1 record before getting knocked out of the contest early against Saskatchewan in Week 5. Ottawa lost that game with a rookie QB in Brock Jensen taking over. Then Henry Burris went 1-2 while Harris recovered from knee and ankle injuries.
The offence was not able to keep the same momentum going with Harris on the sidelines. Despite missing essentially four games, Ottawa’s No. 1 free agent target sits tied for the third most touchdowns passes in the CFL. That kind of production is why head coach Rick Campbell named Harris the starter, which is extremely intriguing because back in May the bench boss said: “Henry’s our guy.”
Line: Redblacks -2.5
Pick: Ottawa
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-4) @ Montreal Alouettes (3-5)
From the unexpected files: Winnipeg flies into La belle province on a three-game winning streak and Montreal enters off a 43-point offensive explosion.
Those were both unpredictable occurrences for the average CFL fan, but the Bombers roster was showing signs of improvement, it just took finding the right triggerman. And the Als loaded up on playmakers in the off-season, which made it a matter of putting a strong outing together on game day.
2015 West Division All-Star cover man Johnny Adams will make his 2016 debut in Montreal. The 27-year-old defensive back returns to a defence that’s been playing well of late and should help that unit to reach another level.
Explosive return man/receiver Quincy McDuffie rejoins the lineup too. He’s been electric with the football when on the field for the Bombers.
Confidence from a win streak and two talent upgrades make Winnipeg the pick.
Line: Alouettes -1
Pick: Winnipeg
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-7) @ Edmonton Eskimos (4-4)
Chris Jones makes his second trip back to Edmonton since leaving for lots of green in Regina.
The Riders were blown out by Hamilton a week ago and you know that loss stings Jones. It would be shocking to see Jones’ team go out and get beat down two weeks in a row. That’s why taking the Riders as nearly two-touchdown underdogs is enticing.
Players know jobs are on the line even though Saskatchewan is 1-7. Jones and Co. have made more than 200 transactions just eight games into the season, which means the Rider personnel men are not afraid to make changes in an effort to find building blocks for the franchise.
Don’t count Saskatchewan out because of their dismal record.
Line: Eskimos -13.5
Pick: Saskatchewan
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-4) @ Calgary Stampeders (6-1-1)
With the way Zach Collaros has played since coming back less than 11 months after a torn ACL, and Calgary continuing to be the model franchise of the league, the 2014 Grey Cup matchup could be repeated in 2016.
In fact, including that CFL title game, the last three times Hamilton and Calgary have squared off, each game has been decided by less than one score – four, one and three points respectively.
Advice: Take the points and enjoy a high-calibre football matchup.
Line: Stampeders -4.5
Pick: Hamilton
Overall record against the spread: 22-14