Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
Matt Nichols and Rakeem Cato did us no favours last week. The former wasted a 23–10 lead by not driving the offence to score even a single point in the second half, and the latter tossed two costly red-zone interceptions that took crucial points off the board in what turned out to be a three-point loss.
Meanwhile, Toronto put some wind in their sails just in time to escape with a close victory against the winless Riders, but in hindsight covering a 9.5-point spread on a short week was too much to ask.
After going 1-3 in Week 7 it’s time to get back to our winning ways.
Eskimos (4-2) @ Alouettes (2-4)
Last week: Eskimos lost 26–23 in BC; Alouettes lost 26–23 in Ottawa
Since Rakeem Cato assumed the starting role for Montreal they are 2-0 at home with wins against two of the CFL’s top teams, Calgary and Hamilton. The Als rookie passer has a 4-0 TD-INT ratio at Percival Molson Stadium—it’s clearly a place that he’s comfortable playing in. And Montreal’s defence always plays tougher in la belle province.
All-Star receiver Adarius Bowman will not play and Edmonton’s offence—especially Matt Nichols—looks lost without their main pass target. If James Franklin—who likely has more raw ability—were the starter, this pick might be different.
Line: Eskimos -1
Pick: Montreal
Argos (4-2) @ Bombers (3-4)
Last week: Argos won 30–26 at home over Saskatchewan; Bombers lost 38–8 in Hamilton
A knee injury has sidelined Drew Willy for six to eight weeks and with their franchise pivot on the shelf Winnipeg turns to fan favourite Robert Marve—he’s flashed tantalizing play-making ability. Marve won’t have deep threat and team-leading receiver Darvin Adams for his first CFL start, but Nick Moore, possibly the Bombers’ most talented pass catcher, returns to action. Marve has dual-threat capabilities, but he still needs the offensive line to help him out, and Winnipeg has given up a league-high 23 sacks.
Toronto has some defensive backs like A.J. Jefferson and Akwasi-Owusu Ansah who like to gamble and try for interceptions whenever the opportunity presents itself. So it will be interesting to see if Marve can navigate his way around an aggressive Argos secondary.
Trevor Harris continues to impress and he should keep it up in Winnipeg, but the Bombers are coming off an embarrassing loss so we should get maximum effort from the home side.
Line: Argos -6
Pick: Winnipeg
Lions (3-3) @ Ticats (4-2)
Last week: Lions won 26–23 at home over Edmonton; Ticats won 38-8 at home over Winnipeg
BC faces their toughest test of the season traveling to the Hammer to take on a Ticats team that is absolutely rolling at Tim Hortons Field. All three phases have been contributing impact plays during the Tabbies’ nine-game unbeaten run at the donut box.
Ticats defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer always tries to confuse offences with a variety of looks down in and down out. And you can bet he will focus on stopping the CFL’s leading rusher, Andrew Harris, and make Travis Lulay try to beat them.
Look for Hamilton to continue making game-changing plays on special teams, sometimes a forgotten element in football. In Hamilton’s first two home games of the season the Ticats recovered an on-side punt for a touchdown, blocked a punt and jumped on a pooch kick-off. Brandon Banks—the most electrifying player league-wide—is due to score a TD that counts. Just sayin’.
Line: Ticats -9
Pick: Hamilton
Redblacks (4-2) @ Stampeders (4-2)
Last week: Redblacks won 26–23 at home over Montreal; Stampeders bye week
Just a few weeks ago Ottawa triumphed in overtime in the nation’s capital against Calgary. Now the Redblacks head west to attempt a series sweep. But getting a win at McMahon Stadium is a much tougher task—the Stamps are a perfect 4-0 in Cowtown in 2015.
However, none of those victories came by a large margin. The Stampeders have posted wins by one, five, one and three points in Calgary. That’s a lot of close calls and it makes Ottawa plus the points the prudent play.
Line: Stampeders -8
Pick: Ottawa
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 4-4