So you’ve got no idea who’s going to win the Super Bowl… but you still feel compelled to get some money down before kickoff.
Never fear! Sports wagering sites absolutely love people like you—and the bigger the game, the more ridiculous props they’ll offer to keep you entertained. What those sites are looking for is a patsy, someone who bets for fun once or twice a year so they have something to cheer for. There’s nothing wrong with that—but we don’t want to send you into battle unarmed.
So here is your primer. These aren’t necessarily the best bets to make—in fact, if you’re trying to win money, you really shouldn’t be betting on the Super Bowl at all, as it’s probably the toughest single game in any sport to find value on—but they’re our favourite wagers among the hundreds of propositions out there, and all of them stand at least a decent chance at paying off.
(Two important notes: 1) odds are taken from Bodog, and 2) some of these won’t pay much at all because they’re more likely to come through. That’s not the worst thing in the world. You’re not in it for the money, remember? You’re in it to rack up a few Ws in front of your friends on Sunday.)
1) Will Richard Sherman receive a taunting penalty in the game? No, -700
After two weeks of drama, of questions, of apologies and explanations and way too many columns analyzing his post-conference championship antics—a couple of them written by Sherman himself— you have to think it’s a longshot that the Seahawks cornerback goes out of his way to become a spectacle in the Super Bowl. For all the ink spilled about his personality, he’s not generally been a highly penalized player in his short career, and if ever there was a time he’d be on his best behaviour, you’d have to think it’s this week.
2) Which coach will be mentioned first by name after kickoff? Pete Carroll, -120
The rationale here is simple: Carroll is often credited with being the mastermind behind the rebuilt Seahawks. It’s hard to discuss any aspect of Seattle’s success without mentioning him. When discussion turns to the Broncos, however, most of the talk is about how Peyton Manning is a coach on the field in his own right—and John Fox doesn’t tend to get quite as much credit.
3) Will Wes Welker drop a pass in the game? Yes, -120
Welker dropped a pass in more than half of the games he played this year, and he’s previously shown a propensity for butterfingers at inopportune moments. Couple those facts with the tight coverage from hard hitters in the Seattle secondary and it’s easy to see a ball or two clanking off the slot receiver’s hands as he hears the heavy footsteps of big hitters like Kam Chancellor.
4) Longest rush by Russell Wilson, Over 12.5 yards, -115
Wilson was over this number in exactly half of his regular-season games—but in the regular season, the Seahawks often played conservatively with his rushing attempts, not wanting to risk injury to their franchise quarterback. So a couple of those games, in which his longest run was nine or 10 yards, saw Wilson frequently slide feet first or run out of bounds to avoid the hit. In the Super Bowl, he should be diving for every last yard, which should easily push this to an over.
5) Total interceptions by Peyton Manning, Over 0.5, -180
Manning is fantastic, of course, but he’s certainly not immune to picks—and the Seahawks force them more often than anybody else in the league. Seattle made an average of 1.75 interceptions per game during the regular season. And Manning—even in a record-setting season—threw 10 picks for an average of 0.625 per game, without ever facing a secondary this good. It’s certainly possible for Peyton to be perfect, but the law of averages works in your favour here.
6) How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha” during the game, Under 27.5, -120
It’s really just a word Peyton Manning likes to say to work his snap count, and now that it’s received exponentially more press than it deserves, there’s every possibility the Broncos change things up a little to keep it fresh. Add in the fact that the Seahawks allow fewer plays against them than any other team, and there’s simply less opportunity for Manning to advertise Nebraska’s favourite vacation spot.
7) Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first? Teammates, 2–1
Not everybody thanks God. But everybody thanks their teammates. This is just a case of playing the odds and trying to double your money.
8) Total receiving yards, Doug Baldwin. Over 39.5, -115
This is one of our favourites. Baldwin was under this number just six times in 18 games, including two post-season tilts. In a couple of those games in which he went under—like Seattle’s season-ending win over the Rams—the Seahawks went up big early and his services just weren’t needed. To keep up with Manning and company, however, Seattle will need all hands on deck, and that includes Baldwin acting as a slot receiver.
9) Player to score the first TD in the game: Julius Thomas, 8–1
It’s not so much that Thomas is the absolute best bet to score first, but the odds are good and, if you look at how Seattle’s secondary matches up with Denver’s receivers, he’s the guy most likely to be open for a short touchdown pass. The Seahawks might well be able to blanket Manning’s other options, and their safeties could prevent Thomas from making longer plays. Near the goal line, however, Thomas is likely to see linebacker coverage, and that’s a matchup he’s won all year—and Manning knows it.
10) Will the announcer refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB? Yes, -150
The Super Bowl is a broadcast geared towards casual fans, which means every bit of interesting background information you may have heard during the regular season will be recycled on Sunday. Wilson’s MLB draft history is just too good a nugget for Joe Buck and Troy Aikman to pass on. Look for it to come up the first time Wilson sprints out of the pocket and makes a throw on the run like the second baseman he almost became.