• Betting odds be damned
• Falcons playmaking talent extends beyond Jones
• Fear Atlanta’s play-action game
We ran a piece titled “Why the Patriots will win Super Bowl LI” on Wednesday. On behalf of Sportsnet, I would like to apologize for that because obviously the Atlanta Falcons are going to come away with the victory.
The Falcons boasted the top scoring offence this season and the Patriots allowed the fewest points. We’ve seen this matchup in six previous Super Bowls and the top defence is 5-1 in those games. So, history might not be on their side (neither are the betting odds), but there is something special about this Atlanta squad.
Here’s why the Falcons are going to win…
They don’t need Julio Jones to thrive… but they still have him
Ahead of the 2011 NFL Draft, Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff (a University of Guelph alumnus) traded five draft picks including two first-rounders to the Cleveland Browns in order to move up from No. 27 to No. 6 and take Julio Jones. Dimitroff appeared to be off his rocker at the time but in hindsight it was one of the best trades in recent NFL history.
Jones has dealt with various foot injuries throughout the season but head coach Dan Quinn told reporters Wednesday “it would take an awful lot, an act of nature, for him not to be 100 per cent rolling on Sunday.”
When Jones is “100 per cent rolling” he’s the best receiver in football. The Green Bay Packers learned that last week when he put up 180 yards on nine catches and two touchdowns in the NFC Championship.
Jones didn’t have many poor outings this season but when he was banged up or wasn’t involved or was simply defended extremely well, the Falcons didn’t slow down. In Week 3 when Jones had one catch for 16 yards, the Falcons put up 45 points and 442 yards. In Week 5 when the Denver Broncos held him to 29 yards on two catches the Falcons generated nearly 400 yards against the defending champs.
When Jones was a non-factor in Week 8 against the Packers and Week 12 against the Cardinals the Falcons put up 33 and 38 points, respectively, and won both games. In fact, outside of a Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, every time Julio failed to register 100 yards in a game the Falcons still won.
Even if the Patriots aim to take away Matt Ryan’s top weapon, Falcons fans can feel confident in how they played when Jones wasn’t dominating. This Kyle Shanahan offence spreads the ball around so well. The likes of Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper each made their mark in 2016 and have the ability to come up clutch. They could be x-factors on Sunday.
Long story short: If the Patriots double-team Jones it will come back to bite them. If they don’t, well, it’s a catch-22.
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Play-action plays will keep the Patriots off balance
Effective play-action attacks can only occur when you run the ball well and the Falcons didn’t have any trouble on the ground in 2016. Between Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and an outstanding offensive line led by off-season acquisition Alex Mack, Atlanta can beat you with runs that go between the tackles or ones that bounce outside. Those two standout backs combined for 1,599 yards and 19 touchdowns running the ball (2,482 yards and 24 TDs from scrimmage).
This helped Ryan average 8.5 yards per attempt on non-play-action throws (NFL average was 6.8 yards) and a whopping 11.3 yards per attempt when using play action (NFL average was 8.4 yards). According to Pro Football Focus, 570 of Jones’s 1,409 yards occurred on play-action passes, which was the most in the NFL.
Another contributor to the Falcons’ success on play-action is the fact they utilize wheel routes better than any other team in the league and that meshes well when a play-action package is drawn up.
So, we know the run game is vital to a successful play-action strategy and we know the Falcons can run the ball but this won’t be a cakewalk against New England’s stout run defence. Matt Patricia’s group allowed a league-low six rushing touchdowns and the third-fewest yards against in 2016.
Super Bowl LI could be won or lost here. If Atlanta can run the ball well enough for their play-action game to get going, it will be a long night for the Pats’ secondary.
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They have the hotter quarterback
You can’t deny what either pivot has done this season, and both were unbelievable in the conference championships. However, Ryan is the player likely to be named the NFL’s MVP this year, not Brady, and the Falcons star has played his best football late in the season. New England isn’t great at pressuring opposing QBs, and giving Ryan extra time to work with is a death wish.
Regardless of who you’re cheering for in this one, football fans are spoiled with the QB matchup we’ve got to look forward to this weekend.
You can’t do much to faze them either.
It’s not all about offence
Two youngsters buoyed Atlanta’s defence this season. One is Deion Jones, who has been Luke Kuechly-like in the way he leads by example. The other is NFL sack leader Vic Beasley. Though he could end up staring down Patriots right tackle Marcus Cannon — who hasn’t allowed a sack since Week 1 — there are high expectations for Beasley in this game.
Dan Quinn won a Super Bowl as Seattle’s defensive coordinator (he also lost one to New England) so it shouldn’t be a surprise the Falcons have transformed what used to be a Swiss-cheese defence into a respectable unit in only a couple years.
Because math and stuff
Konstantinos Pelechrinis, an associate professor at the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Information Sciences, published a recent study in PLOS ONE that determines win probability for NFL games.
Pelechrinis analyzed 1,869 regular- and post-season games from 2009 to 2015 where he looked at in-game statistics and other various factors.
“I believe both die-hard football fans and casual viewers will be in for an exciting game this Sunday,” Pelechrinis told Phys.org. “The Patriots and the Falcons are two dynamic, high-scoring football teams that perform extraordinarily well in the key areas of the game that most impact winning. However, we are confident that it will be the Atlanta Falcons walking away with that franchise’s first Vince Lombardi Trophy.”
Pelechrinis has been running his model throughout the playoffs and it has predicted the winning team correctly 90 per cent of the time. He ran 10,000 simulations of the Super Bowl and his conclusion was the Falcons have a 54-per cent probability of winning.
Boom. Falcons win. You’ve been mathed.