All the talk surrounding Super Bowl XLVIII has been about Peyton Manning going up against the Seattle Seahawks and the NFL’s best defence.
The best historical season by one of the greatest quarterbacks in history against the best statistical defence the NFL has seen in over a decade – so what gives?
Who you got: No. 1 offence or No. 1 defence?
Simmons: It’s tough to pick against Peyton Manning, considering the monumental season he’s had, but I’m going with the Seattle Seahawks’ defence.
Don’t get me wrong, Denver’s offence has been incredible this season. They had 606 regular-season points, but haven’t faced a team as fast and physical on defence as Seattle.
The Seahawks were the third team since the NFL-AFL merger to lead the NFL in points allowed, total yards, and turnovers. The others include the 1985 Chicago Bears, who many consider the greatest defence of all-time.
OK, having now looked at every season, I can inform you all that the Seahawks had the best red zone defense in DVOA history.
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) January 30, 2014
Seattle’s defence is known for its all-world secondary, but the key in this game will be its defensive line, which is the deepest in the entire league. They have three strong penetrators at defensive tackle (Michael Bennett, Brandon Mebane and Clinton McDonald) and have an elite group of pass rushers on the edge (Cliff Avril, Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin).
The Seahawks will need to get after Manning with four-man rushes or Denver will pick them apart. Seattle specializes in this area though — they have rushed four or fewer on 96 percent of their post-season snaps — as they have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32 percent of drop backs this season. That was the best in the NFL (courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info).
That will be enough to hold off Manning.
Lowe: There’s no denying it; Seattle’s defence is one of the best the NFL has seen in years. The dominance of the secondary combined with the depth and skill along the defensive line is unrivaled in the league this season.
But this isn’t just any old offence the Seahawks are lining up against on Sunday. This is the best in league history.
We all know the records that have been smashed – most points, most passing touchdowns, most yards, most first downs (just to name a few) – but it’s the pass protection that sets the Broncos apart. Denver’s offensive line has yet to give up a sack in the playoffs and, according to ESPN.com’s John McTigue, Manning has been pressured on just five of his 79 dropbacks this post-season.
Let’s rewind for a second here: Heading into the Broncos’ week 11 matchup against the Chiefs, all the talk was about Kansas City’s defensive front – who led the NFL in sacks at the time – against Peyton and his offensive line. Manning was pressured once all game on the way to a convincing 27-17 win.
Even if Seattle does get after Peyton, he was the best quarterback in the league when under pressure in the regular season. Combined with the fact Manning holds the ball for the less than 2.5 seconds from snap to release, getting pressure on No. 18 is easier said than done.
2013 Pressure Rate:
Broncos offense: 23.6% of pass plays (lowest in NFL)
Seahawks defense: 42.3% of pass plays (highest in NFL)
— Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete) January 31, 2014
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Battle of the over-looked: Seahawks’ offence or Broncos’ defence?
Simmons: As well as Denver’s defence performed against New England and San Diego, they haven’t seen a running game as powerful and effective as Seattle’s. Marshawn Lynch has been an absolute monster in the post-season. He has three rushing touchdowns and was able to have success against San Francisco, who many consider the best run-stopping front in the league.
But this could be a game where Russell Wilson shines for Seattle. The second-year quarterback has been in ultra-conservative mode throughout the past month. The team is so concerned about limiting turnovers, he’s been tentative and missing some open receivers down the field in order to avoid mistakes.
That has worked for Seattle, as they have not thrown an interception in the post-season, but the Seahawks could open things up against Denver, especially with Percy Harvin (remember that guy?) healthy and back in the lineup.
Harvin will be a huge help on third downs, an area where Seattle has struggled in their recent offensive slump. Seattle is such a run-heavy offence (they ranked 31st in passing attempts), third down conversions are critical to the success of their offence. Outside of Harvin, they have an underrated group.
They are one of three teams with two receivers with 50 catches and 14.0 per catch average (Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin). Not bad for a team that was missing their best receiver for the entire season.
Lowe: Even if Seattle does get after Peyton, he was the best quarterback in the league when under pressure in the regular season. Combined with the fact Manning holds the ball for the less than 2.5 seconds from snap to release, getting pressure on No. 18 is easier said than done.
The Broncos’ regular-season defensive numbers aren’t pretty at first glance. The unit ranked 19th in the league in yards allowed and was in the bottom-five in pass defence, as well as sitting in the bottom-10 in rushing touchdowns allowed (23).
But those numbers are deceiving. With Denver’s opponents playing mostly from behind, the Broncos were thrown on more than 26 other teams but held opposing quarterbacks to the league’s sixth-lowest completion percentage (58.2). The Broncos’ run defence is no slouch either: Denver wasn’t run on often, but when they were they allowed just 3.9 yards a carry, the same amount as Seattle’s vaunted defence.
More importantly, Denver’s defence has been playing their best football in the post-season. On their way to Super Bowl XLVIII, the Broncos held Philip Rivers and Tom Brady — two of this season’s top-six quarterbacks – to just 450 passing yards total, while racking up six sacks and harassing the hell out of both signal callers. Meanwhile, they’ve given up just 129 rushing yards in those two contests, against teams that had been running the ball extremely well heading into their games against Denver.
Yes, Marshawn Lynch is a beast and stopping him will be nearly impossible. But the Broncos run defence has come into its own as of late and the unit can use Russell Wilson’s recent struggles to their advantage, stacking the box and daring the second-year quarterback to beat them with his arm.
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Knowshown Moreno has surprised people this year. Can he have a bigger impact than Marshawn Lynch?
Simmons: Despite Knowshon Moreno’s phenomenal season, it’s hard to go against Marshawn Lynch. The physical back is the most important player in the Seahawks’ offence, considering how much Russell Wilson relies on play action passes, and is a rare player who gets better as the game goes on.
He simply wears out defences, while Moreno mostly benefits from matchups that focus on Manning’s passing offence.
As Hall of Famer Marcus Allen put it on Showtime’s Inside the NFL: “The running game is the only thing that makes your opponent surrender.”
Lynch has had tremendous success in his post-season career and has never let the big stage get to him. He has averaged five yards per carry in January, ran for over 100 yards against San Francisco and everyone remembers the BeastQuake run against New Orleans at the end of the 2010 season.
Lowe: There’s no doubt Marshawn Lynch will have a huge impact on the game; his production will make or break the Seahawks’ championship hopes. But Moreno could factor in greatly.
The Bronco back will benefit, as he has all season, from the presence of Peyton Manning. The Seahawks will be entirely focused on shutting down the future Hall of Famer and his group of dynamic receivers, which could create some opportunities to run the ball, especially in a no-huddle situation where Denver can take advantage if the Seahawks are unable to get run-stopping personnel on the field.
Seattle has also shown an inability to stop the run at points throughout the season. They gave up at least 130 yards rushing eight times in 18 games, including back-to-back contests where they allowed more than 200 yards on the ground.
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