Four years ago, it was thought that when Peyton Manning finally retired, Andrew Luck was the most likely young pivot to take up his mantle. That mantle, though, was never supposed to have “Worst NFL Quarterback” scrawled across the back.
Yes, that’s how bad it got for both Luck and Manning last year—the duo recorded the two highest interception rates in the league, were hampered by injuries and each was replaced at times by a backup who had one 10th the pedigree but seemingly twice the competence. The difference, of course, was that one walked away with a Super Bowl ring to cap a legendary career and the other played just seven games and now has more to lose entering the 2016 season than any other NFL star.
Remember “Suck for Luck”? Remember how fortunate the Colts were to finish last in a season that offered such a prized No. 1? Remember Luck’s decisive triumph over Robert Griffin III in the debate over the draft’s top picks? Remember the three Pro Bowls and three playoff appearances, including an AFC Championship game, in his first three years?
Things can turn around fast for a young quarterback—the 2015 season saw Luck wreck his shoulder, tear rib cartilage, lacerate a kidney, throw just 15 TDs to 12 interceptions, take 15 sacks in fewer than seven games and record a QBR of 47.57, good for 25th in the league, 14 points worse than his previous low. And there weren’t a ton of reasonable excuses, either—while the Colts offensive line wasn’t stellar last season, they were unfairly blamed for a lot of Luck’s struggles. Indy’s O-line ranked in the middle of the pack in 2015, and Luck’s interception and injury problems were often the results of holding the ball too long then making poor decisions. He panicked, which was supposed to be a very un-Lucky thing to do.
Luck has all the tools to prove last year was an aberration, and that’s still the smartest bet, but an opening month that in any way resembles 2015 will leave the Colts floundering in an improving division, and perhaps even find Jim Irsay taking a glance at the Browns’ score to see how RGIII is doing.
