Here we are again.
For the fourth time in the past five years – and the ninth time since 2001 – the New England Patriots will represent the American Football Conference in the Super Bowl.
Fuelled by the brilliant careers of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the Patriots have established a dynasty the likes of which the NFL has never seen and will likely never see again.
Looking to lift the Lombardi Trophy for the sixth time on Sunday, Belichick and Brady will face the franchise against which this incredible run began way back in January of 2002 when the underdog Patriots shocked the Greatest Show on Turf-era Rams, then in St. Louis.
The rest, as they say, is history.
[relatedlinks]
But the full history has yet to be written, and New England has a very good chance of joining the Pittsburgh Steelers as the only NFL franchises with six Super Bowl titles. The Patriots, Cowboys and 49ers have each won five.
Here are three reasons why the Patriots will beat the Los Angeles Rams at Super Bowl LIII and make history this Sunday in Atlanta.
Note: We’ve tried to avoid defaulting to Belichick and Brady here, as their impact on this game is obvious.
1) The Five Guys Up Front
One of the biggest factors in the offensive success the Patriots have been able to find this post-season is the play of the offensive line, which was one of the best units throughout the regular season both in the run and pass games.
The five guys up front have only gotten better in the playoffs.
According to Pro Football Focus, Brady has only been pressured on 15.6 per cent of his dropbacks so far this post-season, the fewest in the playoffs. The Patriots have come up against two of the league’s best pass rushes so far in these playoffs — the Chargers and Chiefs — yet Brady has been hit just twice and hasn’t been sacked.
Now it’s true that Brady is getting the ball out of his hands quickly this post-season – taking an average of 2.42 seconds from snap to pass through two games, according to Next Gen Stats – but to shutout the likes of Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Chris Jones and Dee Ford takes some elite play from the offensive line.
The Patriots o-line will face a much stiffer test on Sunday, of course, in human-wrecking-ball and all-but-certain defensive player of the year Aaron Donald and his defensive tackle partner Ndamukong Suh – both of whom have battered the interior of offensive lines all season long.
It’s a good thing, then, New England has three of the best interior offensive lineman in the game: Joe Thuney, David Andrews and Shaq Mason. The trio rank among the league’s best in pass protection and have been vital to this latest Patriots playoff run.
And with the likes of Rob Gronkowski and James Develin chipping in (both great blockers in their own right), there’s reason to believe the Patriots have favourable matchups against L.A.’s defence – especially in two-running back sets.
2) The Band of Backs
The other offensive difference-maker (outside of Tom Brady) comes in the form of a versatile three-headed monster in the backfield that can slice you up on the ground and dice you up in the pass game.
In first-round-pick Sony Michel, the Patriots have a running back around whom they can build an entire ground game. The rookie racked up 931 yards and 4.5 yards per carry this season, and his skills have allowed New England’s offence to establish itself as one of the league’s best when running the football.
And then there are James White and Rex Burkhead.
White played the role of Super Bowl hero two years back when the Patriots launched the greatest comeback in the game’s history against Atlanta, and plays just as big a role in this version of the New England offence, mostly as a receiver. Three weeks ago against the Chargers, White was targeted 17 times, caught 15 passes and nearly eclipsed 100 yards. That’s not normal, and doesn’t bode well for a Rams defence that struggled to stop Alvin Kamara out of the backfield in the NFC title game.
Meanwhile, Burkhead is a similar threat in the passing game but can also be leaned upon in the red zone to get that final push for six points – he scored the Patriots’ final two touchdowns against the Chiefs in the AFC title game, both on the ground.
Behind an offensive line playing as well as New England’s and with the G.O.A.T. under centre getting the ball out of his hands faster than anyone, expect at least one, if not all, of these running backs to play a big role in Sunday’s game.
3) A Belichick Defence
Under Sean McVay, the Rams boast one of the NFL’s best and most exciting offences.
But by now we know better than to doubt a Bill Belichick defence. He’s literally been thwarting great offences for three decades, and is known for eliminating a team’s greatest strength.
And while the Patriots defence we’ll see on Sunday doesn’t have the star power of the Rams defence, it’s just as capable.
The key to slowing down the Rams’ fifth-ranked pass offence is simple: pressure Jared Goff, who has struggled in the second half of the season in dealing with pressure.
And the Patriots can bring the heat. In Adrian Clayborn and Trey Flowers, New England boasts two of the league’s best at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Need proof? Exhibit A and Exhibit B.
Unlike his counterpart, Goff’s release from snap to throw is not one of his strengths and, as Derrik Klassen points out over at Football Outsiders, New England’s multiple-look blitz-heavy defence has the potential to give the Rams quarterback plenty of problems.
On the backend of the defence, New England’s secondary, led by All-Pro Stephon Gilmore, has been playing at an elite level for weeks (keeping both Philip Rivers and Patrick Mahomes in check so far this post-season) and will be ready to pounce should the front-seven force Goff into hurried mistakes.
But what about Todd Gurley, C.J. Anderson and the Rams’ vaunted run game, you ask? The Patriots will have their hands full, there’s no doubt, but they held the Chargers and Chiefs to just 60 combined rushing yards.
With Belichick and soon-to-be Dolphins head coach Brian Flores calling the shots on Sunday, there’s no reason to believe the Patriots defence won’t be up to the task come kick off.
