The National Football League is the North American professional sports league with the most frequent coaching turnover, and most of the bad news comes at an unfortunate time of year, usually just after the Christmas holidays or as a new calendar year begins.
But there’s nothing quite like the speculation leading up to “Black Monday” — the day after the regular season wraps up and failed coaches are finally relieved.
Which head coaches are on the hot seat as that fateful day fast approaches? Here is a look at some potential candidates.
Note: The following was written with the assumption Marvin Lewis will leave the Cincinnati Bengals at the end of the season and will not be fired.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The inevitable parting of ways between the Colts and head coach Chuck Pagano will be less shocking than the fact Pagano was back at all in 2017. After Jim Irsay fired former GM Ryan Grigson following last season, it was almost certain Pagano would go soon after, but he returned to a Colts team that seemed, weekly, to be fighting battles in the schoolyard with one hand tied behind its back this season.
Pagano’s misfortune of having no on-field time with injured quarterback Andrew Luck in 2017 is counter-balanced by the fact he got to start his head coaching career with a brilliant rookie like Luck, taking a 1-15 team to an 11-5 record, followed by two more 11-5 seasons, all in the midst of Pagano successfully swatting away a leukaemia diagnosis and recovery.
Pagano was easy to root for, but as time has drifted on he’s been exposed as not having much of a plan for how to combat life in the NFL without an elite quarterback, and very little development has taken place among the Colts’ younger players under his stewardship.
The 2017 Colts have actually hung around in many games that, on paper, you’d think they wouldn’t be. Indy has lost four games by four points or less, not to mention their 13-7 overtime loss in that blizzard in Buffalo. But that speaks as much to poor in-game decisions and blown leads by the Colts, which falls at the feet of Pagano.
DETROIT LIONS
An NFC playoff team from last season, the disappointing Lions could head in a new direction this off-season, and almost certainly should. Jim Caldwell came from a winning scenario (Indianapolis, post-Tony Dungy) and was offensive-minded, which could help star quarterback Matt Stafford. But time does appear up on Caldwell after an uninspiring loss last Sunday to a Cincinnati Bengals team that had checked out themselves weeks earlier.
After a 3-1 start that included an impressive win in Minnesota, the Lions proceeded to lose three straight games, giving up 99 points over that span, and was again forced to claw back into the playoff hunt. A dreadful 44-20 Week 13 loss at Baltimore, in which the team seemed to quit in the fourth quarter, doesn’t help Caldwell’s claims of how he inspires the team, and he isn’t the rah-rah type to begin with. Caldwell’s fiercest critics will even note that he inherited an arsenal of weapons in Indianapolis, and should have done more with them.
With a relatively new GM in Bob Quinn and plenty of fresh, young football minds available, there’s no better time to reset the sideline culture for the Lions in a division where the Vikings look set for the next few seasons, the Chicago Bears may have finally found their franchise quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, and Green Bay will be competitive as long as Aaron Rodgers takes the snaps.
CHICAGO BEARS
This move also seems inevitable. It’s true that John Fox had remarkable success in Denver, from Kyle Orton to Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning, but with a win-loss record of 14-33 in Chicago, there’s just no wiggle room for Bears management.
With an arm and mind like Trubisky heading into his all-important sophomore season, it’s incumbent upon the Bears to fit their quarterback with a far-more relatable head coach and offensive mind, like what Sean McVay has done for Jared Goff or Kyle Shanahan seems to have built for Jimmy Garoppolo.
DENVER BRONCOS
This one might seem to come out of left field, but John Elway doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger when it comes to head coaches or starting quarterbacks. He didn’t care one bit that Tim Tebow won a playoff game for the Broncos against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011 — he knew Tebow couldn’t play in the league — and campaigned hard to land Peyton Manning when the Colts jettisoned the future Hall of Famer in favour of drafting the aforementioned Luck.
Yes, one-and-done head coaches are rare in the NFL, but Elway dumping Vance Joseph is a possibility that can’t be dismissed. For all the consternation about the Broncos’ quarterback play, their offensive line has looked awful much of this season after a 2-0 start, and no one could have possibly forecast their defensive woes given the names and résumés the Broncos boast. Denver sits 22nd in points against this season after finishing fourth in the same category last season with Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator.
Yes, a lot of this is Elway’s own mess, but he can’t fire himself. So Joseph may end up being collateral damage.
NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants won’t fire anyone this “Black Monday” as Big Blue have already made the rather rare mid-season change at head coach, sending what appeared to be a quite over-matched Ben McAdoo packing after coaching the Giants to a 2-10 record. Out the door with McAdoo was Jerry Reese, New York’s general manager of 10 seasons, replaced by former Carolina Panthers GM Dave Gettleman.
If you thought McAdoo’s 11-5 record in 2016 and a playoff berth might have bought him more time, you were wrong. Although McAdoo got a lot of credit for the Giants’ offensive success during Tom Coughlin’s later years as head coach, it was fairly clear this season that in-game management, handling of players and dealing with the media were struggles for McAdoo.
One of the biggest jobs in football, the Giants search for a new head coach will be a fascinating one.
POTENTIAL SURPRISES
There always seems to be one head coach firing that comes out of the blue. Lovie Smith’s dismissal by the Bears after a 10-6 run in 2012 is one easily recalled.
Is Dirk Koetter completely safe in Tampa Bay? There is obviously a lot of dysfunction there, but do the Bucs empower Koetter to fix it or bring in a new coach ready to force Jameis Winston and his teammates to grow and mature?
Is Bill O’Brien a sacrifice worth making for the Texans? In Deshaun Watson’s final five starts before his horrific knee injury, the Texans averaged 39 points a game, going 3-2. Since then, Houston’s averaging 13.8 points and they’re 1-8. Hardly all on O’Brien, but how much blame should the head coach take?
There are also whispers about Bruce Arians in Arizona and Jack Del Rio in Oakland after expectations were so high coming into this season, while Tennessee may not see the promise of more Mike Mularkey, given they’ve almost wobbled out of a playoff berth that at one point this season looked all but locked up.
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