Now that the NFL Draft is done, it’s time to look at the fantasy impact of the incoming rookies. Part I of my Sportsnet mini series focused on the deep wide receiver class. Now I shift to ranking the other skill positions of RB, QB and TE.
I’ll analyze not only the draftees themselves, but also how their presence affects other members of the team. Ranking players in order of who I anticipate to be the most fantasy-relevant in each group, let’s hand it off to the running backs.
RUNNING BACKS
It was a less-than-ideal draft for fantasy owners when it came to landing spots for running backs. Not only did the top four RBs taken not end up in bell-cow situations — the draft also created committees on the Lions, Colts, Ravens and Chiefs. This muddying of talent makes it more important than ever to grab a stud RB as soon as possible when your fantasy draft rolls around.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (41st overall)
Out of this foursome, I believe Jonathan Taylor has the best chance to become the most effective fantasy producer — and not just because he gets to run behind an elite offensive line.
Taylor is an elite specimen who could overtake Marlon Mack for the lead in handoffs. The Wisconsin Badger’s collegiate stats were incredible as he rushed for consecutive 2,000-plus-yard campaigns and averaged more than 300 carries per season over three years.
Taylor’s a run-past-or-through-you type who can rip off a touchdown at any moment. He’s a willing pass blocker, but does need to improve as a receiver, and the heavy collegiate workload raises wear and tear issues for those in keeper/dynasty situations. However, if you’re in a single-season league, Taylor is someone to strongly consider drafting in the second wave of fantasy RBs.
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (35th overall)
The best RB on my draft board, D’Andre Swift joins 2018 second-round pick Kerryon Johnson in the Detroit backfield.
Emerging from the NFL running back factory that is Georgia, Swift possesses all the tools to be an every-down player. He’s a dream standalone fantasy star as a polished rusher who can run between tackles, catch and pass protect. That said, my concern on how high to draft Swift comes from not just the presence of Johnson, but also the ideology of Detroit’s offence.
Head coach Matt Patricia is a Bill Belichick disciple and seems to adhere to his former boss’s strategy of tormenting fantasy owners in running back usage. Remember Bo Scarbarough’s random insertion late last season just before kickoff? Swift’s talent is undeniable, but don’t reach for him.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens (55th overall)
This is great real-life match — bringing in a three-down back next to Mark Ingram and elite rushing quarterback Lamar Jackson adds an extra wrinkle to Baltimore’s attack.
The problem from a fantasy perspective is the unpredictability of Dobbins’s role. Are there enough carries for both 30-year-old Mark Ingram, who rumbled for over 1,000-yards in 2019, and the rookie? Jackson also tucked and took off on 179 occasions.
There are just too many variables to rely on the Ohio State star until we see some sort of in-season pattern on the Ravens distribution. He’s no more than a late-round pick for bench depth at this point.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (32nd overall)
The first running back selected is the last on my fantasy list of four. A bit of a surprise choice by the Chiefs at 32nd overall, Edwards-Helaire will enter the NFL as a clear backup to Damien Williams. There’s also Darwin Thompson’s and Darrel Williams’ touches to consider.
Out of LSU, this compact five-foot-seven grinder’s best trait may be his excellent ball security. More quick than fast, C.E.H. can make chunk gains in between the tackles or by slipping into space as a receiver. The 207-pound junior’s pass protection is a definite weak spot and he finds himself in a cluttered, bogged down committee.
Joe Burrow on Clyde Edwards-Helaire pic.twitter.com/TviKTXyUIK
— Braiden Turner (@bturner23) April 24, 2020
QUARTERBACKS
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (1st overall)
Heisman Trophy winner, national champion and Ohio native, Joe Burrow was the no-doubt No. 1 pick for Cincinnati. Now, can he convert his FBS record-setting passing-touchdown record to the pros and — more importantly for us — become a major fantasy-football contributor?
Yes, Burrow excelled for only one collegiate season, but he joins a Bengals team that boasts some exciting weapons. A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and fellow rookie Tee Higgins make up a stacked wide receiver corps to go along with running back Joe Mixon. That said, the Bengals’ suspect offensive line should give us at least a little bit of pause.
I wouldn’t recommend leaning on Burrow as your starter in one-quarterback leagues. However, definitely consider him as a backup or as the second guy in two-QB formats, and of course as a dynasty add.
The Rest
For some readers, lumping Tua Tagovailoa in with “the rest” will be considered sacrilegious. But the group of Tua (Dolphins), Justin Herbert (Chargers) and Jalen Hurts (Eagles) can realistically only be considered draft picks in keeper scenarios — especially since training camps are very likely going to be limited due to the global pandemic.
There’s also no urgency for any of these three to play right away because of the veteran signal callers on each of their clubs. This obviously hinders their immediate fantasy value.
TIGHT ENDS
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (43rd overall)
Chicago’s a curious case of a franchise that can’t seem to get out of its own way. Since the infamous “double doink” missed field goal game in the 2018-19 playoffs, the Bears have sputtered. While Cole Kmet is the consensus most offensively talented tight end in this draft class, it was a strange call on their part considering they just invested in veteran free agent TE Jimmy Graham.
The other wild card in trying to project Kmet’s effectiveness as a rookie is the fact that we don’t know who the starting QB will be. Is it Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky? What are coach Matt Nagy’s plans for using single or double tight end sets?
I’m not a fan of counting on first-year tight ends on my fantasy team, and I’ll continue that trend with this Fighting Irish seam stretcher. But make no mistake: Kmet should be the first TE drafted in keeper/dynasty leagues. Sit him and revisit in 2021.
The Rest
No other rookie tight end warrants a starting spot on your roster. In deeper dynasty formats, the pair of third-round Patriots choices — Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene — could be worth a stash to see if either emerges as a worthwhile playmaker.
One interesting prospect based on raw physical traits is six-foot-seven Colby Parkinson. His size and mismatch potential are tantalizing, but again he’s for keeper scenarios only as Greg Olsen, Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister are all listed ahead of him on the Seahawks depth chart.
Finally, Cleveland’s fourth-round choice Harrison Bryant intrigues me. A converted offensive and defensive lineman, Bryant’s blocking experience may give him opportunities to stay on the field if David Njoku struggles. Agility, ball skills and quick separation provides the upside for him to grow into a complete player. He also won the John Mackey Award last season as college football’s most outstanding tight end.
Still, though, Bryant must get stronger overall, and is another example of a draft-and-hold dynasty option.
[relatedlinks]
