Every Sunday morning Sportsnet’s NFL experts will serve up a playbook containing the 10 things you need to know as of a few hours before kickoff. Whether you play fantasy football, like to wager or just want to sound smart at your local watering hole, we’ve got you covered.
Game Of The Week (it’s not the one you think!)
The Elite QB Litmus Test: In a discussion on Sportsnet Magazine Live on Saturday (right here, if you missed it, in the final segment), we debated whether or not you need a superstar quarterback to win in today’s NFL–or whether a great coach can cover for mediocrity under centre. That question is going to get an excellent test today when Aaron Rodgers takes on Mark Sanchez. Chip Kelly’s Eagles are designed to be as close to talent proof as possible, and the fact they haven’t missed a beat going from Nick Foles to Sanchez proves that point. The Packers, meanwhile, are always a Super Bowl threat when everything’s clicking–but are also always an Aaron Rodgers injury away from a lost season. But in this game, against an equally talented team, and in a contest that Vegas expects to be a highly competitive shootout…it’s hard to imagine the All-Pro not shaking off the Sanchize. If the game goes over the 55-point total, it means that big plays are being made. And if that’s happening, it usually means the QB who makes the fewest mistakes wins. I don’t have to tell you which QB that will be, do I?
Game Theory
More passing yards, please: Between Rodgers-Sanchez and Andrew Luck vs. Tom Brady, it’s fair to expect some shootouts today. Really, it’s fair to expect more shootouts every week. There are currently seven qualifying QBs with passer ratings above 100. That was true last season as well. In 2003? There was one. Steve McNair at 100.5. Sanchez, by the way, sits at 97.7 after a game and a half and if the GB-PHI game does become a shootout, he could make it eight by the end of week 11.
Walk. Don’t run. Meanwhile, guess how many players are on track for a 1,000-yard rushing season. Ten, give or take a bye week or two. A decade ago? 19 players finished with more than 1,000 yards. Those numbers make it sound like the NFL has totally abandoned the run game. And, I mean, as you well know by now it’s certainly more of a passer’s league than ever. Really though, the numbers are more of an indication that the rise of committee rushing attacks is never going away. In fact, it should become even more pronounced the rest of this season, as teams who solidify their playoff spots (or lack of them) look to rest their feature backs (or as teams already out of it explore other options with an eye to 2015). In other words, if you play fantasy football you really need to familiarize yourself with the Zero RB Strategy.
The Three To Watch
1 p.m.
The Ugliest Must-Win Ever? How often does week 11 feature a three-win team that needs a win to stay with the division leaders? Welcome to the NFC South, a bastion of horrible football this season, where the Carolina Panthers, thanks to the inconsistency of the Saints and a convenient tie with the Bengals, sit half a game out of first with their 3-6-1 record. They’re hosting the Falcons, who are 3-6, and would be tied for the division lead with a win and a Saints loss to the Bengals. Ugly stuff. Recall, if you will, the 2010 Seahawks team, who hosted–and beat–the Saints in a home playoff game against the 11-5 Saints by virtue of their division win. Four years later, that scenario could be reversed, with a 7-9 Saints team hosting Seattle.
4:25 p.m.
Remember me? When Drew Stanton was a Detroit Lion, he was mostly the backup’s backup. Today he’ll start against those Lions for the 8-1 Cardinals in place of the injured Carson Palmer. It would be a nice story, if it weren’t for the fact that poor Drew might be torn apart and fed to the, well, Lions. Stanton performed quite respectably in replacing Palmer earlier this season–but this Detroit defence is ferocious, with top-five marks in both pass rushing and run stuffing, per Pro Football Focus. Arizona has weapons for Stanton to work with, but what will decide this game is whether or not he gets the time to use them. Stanton actually completes about 47 percent of his passes when under pressure, a very respectable number–so if he can stay out of Ndamukong Suh’s grasp, the Cards can win with their backup.
Sunday Night
Insert Your Own Hype Here: It’s the Passing Of The Torch game. It’s the Clash Of The Titans game. It’s the…whatever you want to call it, Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck is going to be about as hyped as you can hope for. The current over/under sits at 58, easily the highest of week 11, and three full points higher than Eagles-Packers. Clearly Vegas doesn’t expect defence to come into this one too much. But here’s the thing: Neither of these teams is terrible on that side of the ball. Both clubs have, at least a few times this season, put together defensive performances that shut down some pretty good teams. Only the Seahawks–by a single point–shut down Peyton Manning’s Broncos better than the Pats did in week nine. And while the Colts have been more prone to big lapses, they have found stops when they need them, and did utterly blank a Bengals team that came into week seven off a 37-point performance. The bottom line: It’s unlikely either Brady or Luck will be shut down, but one of these D’s can come up big with little to no warning.