Every Thursday for the final five weeks of the 2018 NFL season, we’ll look at how the playoff picture is shaping up — who’s in, who’s out, and who’s ready to make a move down the stretch.
Here’s what the league looks like heading into Week 13.
If the playoffs started today…
AFC
No. 1 Chiefs (9-2), No. 2 Patriots (8-3), No. 3 Texans (8-3), No. 4 Steelers (7-3-1), No. 5 Chargers (8-3), No. 6 Ravens (6-5)
NFC
No. 1 Rams (10-1), No. 2 Saints (10-2), No. 3 Bears (8-3), No. 4 Cowboys (6-5), No. 5 Vikings (6-4-1), No. 6 Redskins (6-5)
Teams that can clinch in Week 13:
New Orleans Saints, 10-2 (loss at Dallas Cowboys, 13-10)
The Saints had a chance to be the first team marching into the post-season had they defeated the Cowboys on Thursday night, but couldn’t come away with the victory. They also missed out on a shot at claiming the NFC South title, and slip to the No. 2 seed in the NFC (for now, anyway). They’re still the heavy favourites to take the division crown for the second straight year, but it’ll have to wait another week.
Los Angeles Rams, 10-1 (at Detroit Lions, Sunday 1 p.m. ET)
Like the Saints, the Rams can claim both a playoff berth and the division this weekend. (It’s worth noting that they would’ve punched a ticket to the post-season earlier had the Seahawks not stood in their way with back-to-back wins to launch themselves back into the contention conversation.)
The Rams will claim the NFC West title with a win against Detroit, but can also win it with a tie and a Seattle tie (vs. 49ers), or if Seattle loses regardless of the Rams’ outcome on Sunday.
L.A. has several more ways to get into the post-season without a win on Sunday. They’ll clinch a post-season berth with the following:
• LAR tie + DAL loss + CAR loss OR
• LAR tie + DAL loss + MIN loss/tie OR
• LAR tie + WAS loss + CAR loss OR
• LAR tie + WAS loss + MIN loss/tie OR
• LAR tie + CAR loss + MIN loss/tie
Kansas City Chiefs, 9-2 (at Oakland Raiders, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET)
Thanks to the 8-3 Chargers keeping things nice and close in the AFC West, the Chiefs cannot take aim at the division title just yet. They can, however, secure a spot in the post-season with a victory against the Raiders and a bunch of stars aligning in their favour.
The Chiefs will clinch a playoff berth with:
• KC win + MIA loss/tie + IND loss + HOU loss + TEN loss/tie OR
• KC win + MIA loss/tie + IND loss + HOU loss/tie + CIN loss/tie + BAL loss/tie OR
• KC win + MIA loss/tie + IND loss + HOU loss/tie + BAL loss + LAC loss
Teams that can be eliminated in Week 13:
(Huge shoutout to Reddit user NFLPlayoffScenarios for breaking down every elimination scenario in great detail. Give ’em a follow on Twitter here.)
New York Giants, 3-8 (vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday 1 p.m. ET)
The Giants can be mathematically eliminated from the post-season this Sunday, but they can’t do it alone. If any of the following outcomes come to fruition, Big Blue is out:
• NYG loss + SEA win/tie + WAS win + DAL win OR
• NYG loss + SEA win/tie + CAR win
• NYG loss + SEA win + MIN win OR
• NYG loss + SEA win + MIN tie + DET win/tie OR
• NYG loss + CAR win + MIN win/tie OR
• NYG loss + CAR win + WAS win + DAL win OR
• NYG loss + WAS win + DAL win + MIN win/tie
Arizona Cardinals, 2-9 (at Green Bay Packers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET)
If the Cardinals lose to Green Bay this Sunday, they’re officially eliminated from post-season contention. Here are the other ways they can be ruled out:
• ARI tie + WAS win + DAL win OR
• ARI tie + CAR win OR
• ARI tie + SEA win + MIN win/tie
New York Jets (at Tennessee Titans, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET)
The Jets’ playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. A loss in Tennessee, PLUS wins from the Ravens (at Atlanta), Browns (at Houston) and Bengals (vs. Denver) will sever them altogether.
San Francisco 49ers, 2-9 (at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET)
A loss to Seattle on Sunday afternoon officially cuts off San Francisco’s playoff hopes. Here are three other scenarios that would see them mathematically ruled out:
• SF tie + CAR win OR
• SF tie + WAS win + DAL win OR
• SF tie + WAS win + DAL tie + TB win + ATL win
Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-8 (vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 1 p.m.)
The Jaguars are in must-win territory here. A loss to the Colts this Sunday will see the struggling club officially booted from playoff contention.
Race to the bottom
If the draft order were to be locked in today, the No. 1 overall pick would belong to the 49ers, followed by the Raiders at No. 2 and Cardinals with the third overall pick.
Three matchups to watch
While not quite in clinching territory just yet, these three matchups will have big impacts on the rest of the playoff picture.
Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1) at New England Patriots (8-3), Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Patriots are all but officially in the playoffs thanks in part to a weak AFC East. The Vikings, however, are toeing the line dividing contenders from non-playoff teams. A win keeps them in the playoff picture with the NFC North still very much up for grabs while a loss leaves the door wide open for another club (we see you, Seattle) to jump into a wild-card spot.
Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1), Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
The Chargers start the weekend in the fifth seed, and it’s more than likely that’s where they’ll finish it, too. They can’t pass the Chiefs this weekend, but a win will put them in better standing ahead of their Week 15 meeting with the AFC West leaders. Pittsburgh can jump up to No. 3 with a win and a favour from their rivals over in Cleveland, and can bump up two spots if the Patriots lose.
Washington Redskins (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-6), Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
This is the first of two huge matchups between these division rivals (the second instalment will be in Week 17) and holds some serious playoff implications for an NFC East that’s still not spoken for. As it stands, Washington and Dallas are in but the Eagles are still in control of their own playoff fate. The Redskins have the (slightly) easier remaining schedule, but Philly’s still got another head-to-head against Dallas (Week 14) to put them in the driver’s seat. Buckle up.
