Got a hot topic? Our NFL panel has opinions. The panel includes NFL editor Craig Battle, Sportsnet deputy editor Jordan Heath-Rawlings, and staff writers Mike Johnston and Jeff Simmons, and associate editor Geoff Lowe.
Q: The panel as a whole is on a roll with these upsets, so we’ll do it every week until all of us miss. What’s your pick for the biggest upset of the weekend, both against the spread and straight up?
BATTLE: I like that I get lumped in with the panel’s successes even though I picked the Giants to upset the Eagles last week. I’m on a roll! But still: I like the Saints to show up two weeks in a row and make things at least difficult on an Indianapolis team whose 3-3 record overrates them. The Colts have beaten the Texans, Titans and Jaguars this year (teams No. 28, 31 and 32 on Geoff Lowe’s most recent NFL power rankings), and only by a total of 12 points. Indy stayed within a touchdown of the Pats last week, but they’ve been more down than up and don’t deserve 4.5 points on the Saints right now.
JOHNSTON: Since 2011, the Jets and Patriots have played five times at Gillette Stadium. New England is 4-1 in those games with the widest margin of victory for either team being nine points–two of those games were settled by a field goal in overtime. The Patriots are favoured by nearly 10 points this week depending on which website you look at, so the Jets are a solid bet to cover. The way they’ve been playing on both sides of the ball it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if they handed New England its first loss of the season.
Also, I’ve got a funny feeling about this Jaguars-Bills game in England. The Bills’ defensive line poses major problems for the Jags yet there’s something about the way Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offence has been performing that makes me think an upset is coming. Buffalo will be without Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, Kyle Williams, Karlos Williams and Percy Harvin.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: I am on a roll, thanks for noticing! Since I used my against-the-spread and outright-win pick on the same team last week (and nailed the Panthers going into Seattle and taking out Russell Wilson and Co.), I’ll keep them both together again this week and go for the Bucs to walk into FedEx Field and pick Washington apart. Tampa has had a bye week to get their pass-catchers healthy (notably Mike Evans) and to get Jameis Winston more comfortable as a rookie quarterback, Doug Martin is running like he was two years ago, and though that offence may be prone to turnovers, it can certainly score some points. Washington, however, might be trotting out the worst starting quarterback of a weekend that will feature Brian Hoyer, Landry Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Foles, Josh McCown and EJ Manuel all “leading” NFL teams. Kirk Cousins sucks, I’m sorry–so I’m taking Tampa. The end.
LOWE: The No. 1 offence meets the No.1 defence in a crucial AFC East clash, and I’m taking the points. The Jets are nine-point underdogs when they head to New England to take on the Patriots for the first time under Todd Bowles, and I like their chances of keeping it close. Sure, Tom Brady and Co. are beating teams by an average of 16 points, but the Jets defence ranks first in points and yards allowed, turnovers created, first downs allowed, and second in both rushing and passing yards surrendered.
Straight up, I like the Eagles over the Panthers. Philadelphia has been trending up over the last couple of weeks, and Chip Kelly seems to finally understand that DeMarco Murray needs to get the ball … a lot. More importantly, the Eagles’ defence has stepped up in a big way. On the flip side, the Panthers, aside from Cam Newton, haven’t been the most convincing of undefeated teams, and aside from a rout of the Bucs aren’t beating opposition emphatically during a fairly easy stretch of schedule.
SIMMONS: I’ll go with two different picks. Against the spread, I like the Jets. Yeah, I know. Don’t bet against Tom Brady. But the Jets are a really good team. They lead the league in almost every defensive category and have the right combination to give New England problems. Historically, the Patriots have struggled to block good interior rushers and the Jets absolutely excel in that area. This division game could be closer than the 8.5 spread.
In terms of straight-up upsets, I’m going to go with the Detroit Lions. They’re a home underdog this week, but I think they can win a second straight game. Yes, the Lions were already blown out by the Vikings earlier this season, but the Lions aren’t a particiularly good road team and that game was actually closer than the score indicated. Detroit’s offence looked much improved last week — especially Calvin Johnson — and if they can avoid turning the ball over at a ridiculous rate, this game could shift in the Lions’ favour.
