The return of the NFL season doesn’t just mark the end of my social life on Sunday afternoons, it means it’s time to drive myself nuts dwelling over weekly survivor picks.
If you haven’t done a survivor/suicide pool before, you’re really missing out. This has become a prominent part of the week for most NFL fans (and most notably, gamblers).
For those not in the loop, a survivor pool requires you to pick one winner out of the 16 games per week. If the team you selected loses their game, you are eliminated from the pool. It happens that fast. But if you advance by successfully choosing a winner, you can no longer use that team for the rest of the season.
If you’re new to this, here’s the rationale I try to use as the basis for my weekly selections:
1) Try to avoid picking road teams. In the NFL, there’s a distinct advantage for the home club and it’s much safer to choose home teams playing against inferior opponents. That’s the No. 1 thing you should look for.
2) Try to avoid division matchups. There are obvious exceptions (say when Denver plays Oakland this year) but divisional matchups are generally difficult to predict and offer invariable results. These teams always have the book on each other and tend to play close games. I like to look elsewhere, in most cases.
3) Don’t get too cute. Some people tend to plan out their entire season and leave obvious winners on the table to save the teams for later when they may have a more attractive matchup. I personally hate this approach. The goal is to survive. I’m looking for the best pick now and I’ll worry about the future picks later.
Week 1 is always the toughest in these survivor picks. Remember, we just need one pick to advance. In the NFL, every team changes so much from year-to-year that it’s hard to know what to expect on the opening weekend. Teams change so much over the off-season with free agency, the draft, pre-season so basically throw out almost everything you learned last season.
With that in mind, here are my best five selections for this ever-so challenging opening weekend:
1. Indianapolis Colts (home vs. Oakland) — Have you seen Oakland’s roster? It’s that bad. They boast such little talent throughout their roster that some are comparing them to an expansion team. Indianapolis has historically been a pretty good team at home and Andrew Luck should be able to move the ball against an underwhelming Raiders defence. Across the board, this looks like a major mismatch and it won’t be any easier for the Raiders with the erratic Terrelle Pryor expected to make the start at quarterback. I’m banking big on this pick.
2. New England Patriots (road vs. Buffalo) — This is breaking two of my cardinal rules but it is an obvious exception. If there’s something you can count on in the NFL, it’s that Tom Brady will carve up the Buffalo Bills. It just happens all the time. There’s a reason the Pats are favoured by 10 points as a road team. Not only that, but the Bills are missing their best shutdown cornerback in Stephon Gilmore. Good luck stopping Brady now. The Bills are starting a rookie quarterback as well and as good as EJ Manuel has looked in the pre-season, I can’t imagine him outdueling a future Hall of Famer in his first career game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (home vs. Tennessee) — The Titans aren’t the typical horrendous-looking team that I tend to target in Week 1 but this looks like a safe bet for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is one of the best home clubs in the entire league and they’ll be coming out with a vengeance after a disappointing 2012 season. The Steelers defence may not be what it used to be but creative co-ordinator Dick LeBeau still can draw up exotic blitz schemes and he should do a good job confusing Titans quarterback Jake Locker, who struggles when he is under pressure. It’s not a good matchup for Locker and we really like the Steelers in this one.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (road vs. New York Jets) — Again, I generally try to stay away from road picks but I can’t foresee the lousy Jets winning a game over a reloaded Buccaneers roster. The Jets have looked like a complete dumpster fire over the summer and can barely function on offence. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith will be making his first career start, and he’s essentially being forced into action now that Mark Sanchez is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. It won’t be easy for Smith going up against former Jet Darrelle Revis, who surely will be looking for revenge in his first game back in New York after the club traded him in April. It could get ugly fast in this one.
5. Houston Texans (road vs. San Diego) — This is just a gut feeling. It’s a pick I’m quietly confident about but I’d easily pick the other four listed above before I’d choose this one. Houston offers an elite pass rush, which could present a serious problem for San Diego. The Chargers could not protect the passer last year and going against players like J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing, and Brooks Reed should be a big problem for San Diego. While the Chargers will undoubtedly be motivated by playing on Monday night, I don’t think they have the talent to slow down the dangerous Texans. They’re absolutely loaded on defence.
