Each Friday of the 2018 NFL playoffs, we’ll be picking every game against the spread.
Here are the picks for Wild Card Weekend.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
The Pick: Colts
After splitting the season series, the Colts travel to Houston for this AFC South rubber match thanks to a win over their rival Tennessee Titans in Sunday night’s win-or-go-home game.
First off, kudos to both Houston and Indy. The Colts and Texans started the season a combined 1-8, and reached the playoffs on the backs of incredible second-half runs.
This spread has flip-flopped all week long, but at the time of this writing, it sits in favour of the Texans. However, I think the Colts have the upper-hand and this matchup will mostly come down to Houston’s offensive line.
Both of these teams can score in bunches and play solid defence, but the difference between the two comes along the o-line: Indy protected its QB better than any other team, while Houston allowed more sacks than any other team.
For that reason, gimme the Colts.
[relatedlinks]
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
The Pick: Seahawks
The Dallas Cowboys have had a significant home-field advantage all season long, going 7-1 straight up in Arlington and 5-3 against the spread.
But this is the playoffs. Experience matters, and the Seahawks have that in spades. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are a young team with many players suiting up for their first playoff game. You may scoff, but that makes a difference.
These two teams are very similar in many ways, but the experience of Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will be the difference in what should be a tightly contested game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
The Pick: Chargers
I’ve been back and forth on this game all week long. First, it was the Ravens, currently riding a hot hand. Then, the Chargers, one of the league’s best road teams at 7-1. Then back to the Ravens, who are seemingly built to win playoff games.
Now I’ve landed on the Chargers, and it’s L.A.’s Week 16 loss to Baltimore that I think will make the difference. Head coach Anthony Lynn and his staff have seen this unique Lamar Jackson-led offence before and have dealt with Baltimore’s top-ranked defence, both very fresh in their minds.
That familiarity, which Baltimore’s other Lamar Jackson-era opponents haven’t had, is going to be the deciding factor on Sunday afternoon.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
The Pick: Eagles
The Eagles beat the odds and rode Nick Foles back to the post-season and are rewarded with a matchup against arguably the league’s best defence.
Khalil Mack and company should keep Philly’s offence in check, but the Eagles defence is no slouch either and should be able to do the same against Mitchell Trubisky’s offence. The Bears are far from perfect offensively, and Philadelphia’s defensive line is playing its best football of the season.
I think Chicago ultimately comes out on top in this game, but the defending Super Bowl champs will make things interesting.
