It was, as these things go, one of the more forgettable football games played in 2013.
Some of that had to do with the score—a never-in-doubt 40-10 thumping by the home side. Some of it had to do with strategy—when a coach runs the same player six consecutive times without even an attempt to mix it up, he’s probably focusing on improvement by repetition and not tipping his hand. Most of it, though, can be ascribed to the lack of stakes. Nobody knew, back on Aug. 17 in Seattle, that the Seahawks and the Broncos would end up meeting in Super Bowl XLVIII—and even if they had it’s not like the second week of the NFL preseason usually crackles with excitement.
Had the coaches known, in fact, it’s likely they would have elected to show their opponents even less than the rudimentary offensive looks that were on display. But for one-and-a-half quarters, anyway, the soon-to-be-No.-1 defence tried to stop the soon-to-be-No.-1 offence, and whatever happened in the five-plus months that came after, there are still some lessons to be learned from that—and from what happens when the Seahawks have the ball, too.
Here are the five most important takeaways from a rewind of the Broncos-Seahawks pre-season meeting—or at least from the first half of the game in which the two teams actually matched up their starters.
1. The Broncos underrated run defence will play a huge role
Marshawn Lynch touched the ball just twice in August, for two total yards. His backup, Robert Turbin, saw nine carries for 35 yards. Both Lynch and Turbin were often met at the line by an underrated group of Denver linebackers that will be relied upon Sunday to stymie Seattle’s attempts to grind the game out and keep Peyton Manning on the sideline. Wesley Woodyard was the Broncos’ first-team middle linebacker in August, but injuries and ineffectiveness have consigned him mostly to the bench. Instead, the development of Danny Trevathan has been something of a revelation. In fact, the Broncos and Seahawks allowed an identical number of rushing yards in the regular season—1,626, for 3.9 yards per carry apiece—and Denver has been solid in the post-season, allowing just 64.5 yards on the ground per game. If the pre-season is any indication, the Broncos might sell out to stop Lynch and force Russell Wilson to put the ball in the air—even if it’s just on short passes—to keep drives alive.
2. Russell Wilson can make life difficult for Denver
If the Broncos do manage to stop Lynch from running wild, they might have difficulty keeping the Seahawks QB in check. In the pre-season game, Wilson was able to create plays by rolling out of the pocket and executing short passes while on the run. The 2013 Broncos experience against quarterbacks who like to scramble was limited to a couple of games against Terrell Pryor and the sad-sack Raiders, and one game against a hobbled Robert Griffin III. Wilson didn’t actually move the ball with his legs much against Denver in August—he rushed once for 10 yards on a broken play—but he was able to consistently extend plays until his receivers got open, something that might be even easier to do this Sunday when the Broncos will be without excellent slot cornerback Chris Harris.
3. Byron Maxwell must be excellent
Maxwell didn’t really see the field against Denver’s starters in August, but with the loss of Brendan Browner, Maxwell has risen past Walter Thurmond on the depth chart to become Seattle’s second-best corner. In August, Browner was a busy man, being tasked with whichever Broncos receiver wasn’t occupied by Richard Sherman. Maxwell actually was more effective than his more-celebrated teammate in that game, allowing only two receptions on five throws to his men while Sherman allowed completions on all three throws to receivers he was covering. Since Sherman doesn’t usually operate by shadowing one player, it’s safe to assume that Maxwell will see time on Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker through the game. And because Sherman will undoubtedly be better than he was in a meaningless pre-season game, if Manning can avoid his coverage and find a rhythm the Seahawks will be in trouble.
4. Julius Thomas could be a massive problem
Thomas led the Broncos in receiving in August, with four catches for 70 yards. But it was how he got them that was impressive. He found seams between coverage near the line and deeper secondary zones. He caught one ball with Sherman watching him—but Sherman was only pressed into duty on that play, a 31-yard, after-the-catch gain down the sideline, because Thomas effortlessly shook Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner to create the space for the catch and run. With Seattle’s cornerbacks having their hands full with Denver’s receivers, and vice-versa, the battle in the passing game may well be determined by how much effort the Seahawks must expend to keep the tight end in check. Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl thomas are a great matchup for Seattle against an athletic Thomas, but giving them that responsibility for the entire game may weaken the help available for cornerbacks attempting to lock down all the Broncos’ receiver talent. In the end it’s likely to come down to Wagner, as well as fellow linebacker K.J. Wright, who returned from a foot injury in the NFC championship game, to cover Thomas—at least near the line of scrimmage—to make sure he doesn’t get loose in space before he gets deep enough that the safeties can help defend him. Manning also loves looking to Thomas on third downs, making bottling him up even more critical to getting Peyton and Co. off the field.
5. There’s too much we don’t know
There are no shortage of players for whom the Seahawks-Broncos pre-season game offers little to no help. In August, for instance, John Fox elected to give Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman six consecutive attempts to find the end zone, beginning at the Seattle 14-yard line. Hillman ran into the line for short gains five straight times then, just before he reached the end zone on a sixth carry, he coughed up the football, which Browner promptly returned for a touchdown. Hillman doesn’t see the field these days, while Broncos’ current starting running back Knowshon Moreno never even touched the ball in August. For the Seahawks, in addition to Lynch being limited to two touches, receiver Percy Harvin—who took most of the season to recover from a hip injury and returned just in time to be concussed in the NFC championship—was nowhere to be found. Those are three of the top-five choices for Super Bowl MVP according to betting odds—Lynch is second to Manning, followed by Wilson, with Harvin fourth and Moreno fifth. Any of them could make this a very different football game.